Leonardo stock forecast: FY2025 results

Leonardo is an Italian aerospace and defence group listed in Milan; its FY2025 prelims showed revenue up 11% YoY, operating profit up 18% and orders up 15%. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Explore third-party LDO price targets.

By Dan Mitchell52 minutes ago

Model aircraft displayed indoors next to a Leonardo company banner and a heraldic emblem board, showcasing aviation and defense branding — Photo: Shutterstock

Leonardo S.p.A. (LDO) is trading at €60.75 in early European trading at 11:16am (UTC) on 11 March 2026, within an intraday range of €60.31–€62.71. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.

Several factors appear to be contributing. Leonardo’s preliminary full-year 2025 results showed revenue up 11% year on year, operating profit up 18%, and new orders 15% higher (Leonardo, 25 February 2026). More broadly, the Stoxx Europe Aerospace and Defence index has continued to draw support from renewed NATO spending commitments and ongoing geopolitical tensions across the Middle East and Eastern Europe (McKinsey, 12 February 2026).

Leonardo stock forecast 2026–2030: Third-party price targets

As of 11 March 2026, third-party Leonardo stock predictions reflect differing assumptions around European defence budget trajectories, the pace of margin expansion, order backlog conversion, and whether the stock’s recent re-rating can persist. The briefs below summarise five independent broker views, ordered from lowest to highest central estimate, all published between 26 February and 11 March 2026.

Bank of America Securities (post-results upgrade)

BofA Securities analyst Benjamin Heelan reiterates a Buy rating on Leonardo and raises the 12-month price target to €64.20, citing full-year 2025 execution as the main basis for the revision. The note flags a modest trim to near-term EPS forecasts, reflecting adjustments to short-term cost and margin assumptions, while maintaining a constructive view on multi-year free cash flow conversion (MarketScreener, 27 February 2026).

Barclays (rating upgrade to Overweight)

Barclays analyst Afonso Osorio upgrades Leonardo from Equalweight to Overweight and raises the 12-month price target to €68 from €53, flagging 13–14% upside potential to long-term EBITA estimates. The note also expects the company to double cash flow over five years at 20-year high conversion rates, while the stock trades at an approximate 14% discount to the sector’s three-year forward EV/EBIT average (Investing.com, 9 March 2026).

MarketScreener (live sell-side consensus)

MarketScreener aggregates the recommendations of 18 analysts covering Leonardo on the Borsa Italiana listing, reporting an average 12-month price target of €61.68, a high of €71, and a low of €53. The mean consensus rating is Outperform. The distribution leans towards Buy and Outperform, with individual targets revised higher following the FY25 results release in late February 2026 (MarketScreener, 10 March 2026).

MarketBeat (consensus rating overview)

MarketBeat reports that Leonardo’s OTC-listed ADR (FINMY) carries an aggregate Moderate Buy consensus rating, derived from 1 Strong Buy, 2 Buy, and 4 Hold ratings across the covered analyst panel. The update notes that the Barclays upgrade to Overweight coincided with the ADR reaching a new 52-week high of $35.43 on 9 March 2026, alongside a broader reassessment of the stock’s earnings trajectory (MarketBeat, 9 March 2026).

Leonardo IR (full broker panel)

Leonardo’s investor relations page publishes the live equity coverage panel as of 10 March 2026, listing 20 brokers with 12-month price targets ranging from €48.80 (Agency Partners, Buy) to €71 (Kepler Cheuvreux, Buy; Morgan Stanley, Overweight). Among higher-conviction Buy and Overweight calls, JP Morgan carries a €66 Overweight, Mediobanca a €70 Outperform, and Jefferies a €68 Buy, while neutral-rated firms including Goldman Sachs (€55), Exane BNP Paribas (€56), and Citi (€60) sit at the more cautious end of the range (Leonardo IR, 10 March 2026).

Across these sources, 12-month Leonardo stock predictions converge in a range of €48.80–€71, with the sell-side consensus average near €61–€62. More constructive calls often point to FY25 execution, European defence spending as a medium-term support, and improving cash conversion, while more cautious targets tend to focus on valuation discipline after a material re-rating.

Predictions and third-party forecasts are inherently uncertain, as they cannot fully account for unexpected market developments. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.

LDO stock price: Technical overview

The LDO stock price trades at €60.75 as of 11:16am UTC on 11 March 2026, holding above a tightly stacked moving-average cluster with the 20/50/100/200-day SMAs at approximately €58/€57/€53/€51 respectively. The 20-over-50 alignment remains intact, keeping the near-term trend constructive. The 14-day relative strength index reads 59.58, an upper-neutral reading that suggests positive but not overstretched momentum, while the ADX at 16.24 points to a trend that is present but not yet firmly established.

On the upside, the classic R1 pivot at €60.25 has already been cleared intraday, with the next reference at R2 near €63.69 becoming more relevant if LDO holds a convincing daily close above the current area. The €62–€63 zone, where the hull moving average also sits, represents the next meaningful test.

On pullbacks, the classic pivot (P) at €56.30 provides initial support, with the 20-day SMA at approximately €58 offering a nearer shelf before that level comes into play. A daily close beneath the 50-day SMA near €57 would blunt the short-term trend and could open the way towards S1 at €52.86 and the 100-day SMA shelf near €53 (TradingView, 11 March 2026).

This is technical analysis for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.

Leonardo share price history (2024–2026)

LDO’s stock price opened March 2024 around €20, starting a two-year run that has since taken the stock to levels more than three times higher.

Throughout 2024, the stock held a fairly steady range between roughly €20 and €24, closing the year at €25.90 on 30 December 2024. The price moved higher gradually as market participants assessed the outlook for European defence budgets. Momentum sharpened at the start of 2025, with LDO opening the year at €26.07 and rallying through late winter as NATO spending commitments returned to focus.

That rally hit turbulence in early April 2025, when the stock dropped to a closing low of €39.33 on 7 April 2025, reversing a gain from a mid-February close near €30. The pullback proved short-lived: LDO recovered through the summer and autumn, reaching a closing high of €52.20 on 3 November 2025, before easing back to €49.23 by year end.

The move continued into 2026. LDO opened the year at €51.46 on 2 January and pushed higher, with the stock hitting a recent closing peak of €62.77 on 10 March 2026 after a Barclays upgrade and the market’s reception of FY25 results. LDO closed at €60.91 on 11 March 2026, around 18.4% up year to date and about 135.2% above its December 2024 close.

Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.

Leonardo (LDO): Capital.com analyst view

Leonardo’s share price performance over the past two years reflects a sustained re-rating of the European defence sector, with LDO rising from around €20 in early 2024 to a recent closing peak of €62.77 on 10 March 2026. Market participants have linked that move to higher NATO member defence budgets, strong order intake, and results that showed improving margins and cash conversion. However, traders looking at the stock at current levels face a different risk profile than those who bought earlier in the cycle. The valuation has expanded materially, and any softening in defence spending commitments, an earnings shortfall versus expectations, or broader equity market weakness could weigh on a stock that may already reflect optimistic assumptions.

The company’s industrial plan presentation on 11 March 2026 provides a near-term catalyst that could move the price in either direction: an ambitious outlook may reinforce the bull case, while guidance that falls short of market expectations could prompt a pullback. Structural tailwinds linked to geopolitical uncertainty and European rearmament remain in place, but the market may already reflect them, with consensus price targets clustering near €60–€68.

CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.

Capital.com’s client sentiment for Leonardo CFDs

As of 11 March 2026, Capital.com client positioning in Leonardo CFDs is skewed towards buyers: 95.2% long vs 4.8% short, putting buyers ahead by 90.4 percentage points. This snapshot reflects open positions on Capital.com and can change rapidly, particularly around near-term catalysts such as today’s industrial plan presentation.

Summary – Leonardo 2026

Leonardo (LDO) trades at €60.75 as of 11:16am UTC on 11 March 2026, up roughly 135% from its December 2024 close of €25.90.
Technical indicators show LDO holding above all key moving averages, with a 20-over-50 alignment intact and the 14-day RSI at 59.58, suggesting positive but not overstretched momentum.
The classic R1 pivot at €60.25 has been cleared intraday; the next meaningful resistance sits near R2 at €63.69, while the classic pivot support sits at €56.30.
Key drivers often cited include higher European defence budgets, FY25 order intake, improving cash conversion, and broker upgrades that contributed to the sector’s re-rating.

Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.

FAQ

Who owns the most Leonardo stock?

Leonardo has a mixed shareholder base that can include strategic holders, institutional investors and retail shareholders. The largest positions can change over time, so the most reliable way to check current major holders is to review Leonardo’s latest annual report, regulatory filings and investor relations updates, which typically list significant shareholders and any relevant thresholds. If you’re comparing ownership across listings or ADRs, confirm you’re looking at the same share class.

What is the 5 year Leonardo share price forecast?

A five-year LDO stock forecast is inherently uncertain, and most third-party research focuses on shorter horizons, such as 12-month targets. Longer-term outcomes depend on factors like defence budget paths, order backlog conversion, margins, cash flow generation, currency moves and broader equity market conditions. Changes in guidance, sector valuation multiples and geopolitical developments can also influence the path. Treat any long-range projection as a scenario, not a prediction.

Is Leonardo a good stock to buy?

Whether Leonardo is 'good' depends on your goals, time horizon and risk tolerance, and this article isn’t recommending any trade. The share price has already moved significantly over the last two years, which can change the balance between potential upside and downside. Analysts’ targets vary, reflecting different assumptions on earnings and valuation. If you’re assessing the stock, consider both fundamentals and the risks of volatility, re-rating and forecast uncertainty.

Could Leonardo stock go up or down?

Yes. Leonardo’s share price can rise or fall based on company-specific updates (results, guidance, order intake, cash flow and strategy) and broader drivers such as defence spending expectations, sector sentiment and overall market risk appetite. The stock’s recent re-rating means valuation assumptions may matter more, so surprises can have an outsized impact in either direction. Short-term catalysts, including major presentations or broker note changes, can also increase volatility.

Should I invest in Leonardo stock?

Only you can decide, and nothing here is financial advice. If you’re considering exposure, you may want to weigh the potential benefits of participating in sector trends against risks such as earnings disappointments, shifts in defence budgets, valuation compression and wider market drawdowns. Think about position sizing, diversification and how the investment fits your time horizon. If you’re unsure, you could consider speaking with an independent financial adviser.

Can I trade Leonardo (LDO) CFDs on Capital.com?

Yes, you can trade Leonardo CFDs on Capital.com. Trading share CFDs lets you speculate on price movements without owning the underlying asset and to take long or short positions. However, contracts for difference (CFDs) are traded on margin, and leverage amplifies both profits and losses. You should ensure you understand how CFD trading works, assess your risk tolerance, and recognise that losses can occur quickly.