Leonardo stock forecast: 2025 results and £1bn contract

Leonardo is an Italian aerospace and defence group listed on the Borsa Italiana, which recently reported 2025 results showing orders up 14.5% to €23.8bn and net debt down 44%, alongside a £1bn UK helicopter contract. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.

By Dan Mitchell7 minutes ago

Photo: Shutterstock

Leonardo S.p.A. (LDO) is trading at €59.70 as of 2:08 pm UTC on 4 March 2026, within an intraday range of €57.36–€60.05 on Capital.com's EUR-denominated Stock CFD feed; the price sits near the top of today's session range, extending its advance from the previous close of €57.94 recorded on 3 March 2026. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.

Momentum follows a series of recent catalysts: Leonardo reported full-year 2025 results on 25 February 2026 that beat its own upgraded guidance, with new orders rising 14.5% year-on-year to €23.8 billion and total revenues up approximately 11% to €19.5 billion, while net debt fell 44% to €1.0 billion (Reuters, 25 February 2026); the UK Ministry of Defence separately announced a £1 billion contract award on 2 March 2026 for 23 new medium helicopters (Leonardo, 2 March 2026); and the company is scheduled to present an updated industrial plan on 11–12 March 2026 (MarketScreener, 18 December 2025), which may be contributing to near-term trading interest alongside broader investor focus on European defence stocks.

Leonardo stock forecast 2026–2030: Third-party price targets

As of 4 March 2026, third-party Leonardo stock predictions span a range of €48.88–€74.55, shaped by differing assumptions on the pace of European defence spending, margin trajectory, order backlog conversion, and broader macroeconomic conditions. The following briefs summarise independent sources, ordered from lowest to highest target.

Deutsche Bank (downgraded to Hold)

Deutsche Bank downgraded Leonardo from Buy to Hold, maintaining a 12-month price target of €57. The bank cited execution risk as the primary concern going forward, noting that free cash flow generation would be the key metric to watch after the stock's recent sharp re-rating (Investing.com, 13 January 2026).

Yahoo Finance (analyst consensus pre-results)

Ahead of Leonardo's Q4 2025 results, Yahoo Finance reported a consensus of 17 analyst 12-month LDO stock forecasts averaging €59.91, with a high of €71 and a low of €48.40, against a then spot price of approximately €58.92. The distribution reflected a broadly balanced split between Buy and Hold ratings, with no Sell recommendations in the panel (Yahoo Finance, 23 February 2026).

Investing.com (consensus overview)

Investing.com aggregates 18 analyst 12-month price targets for Leonardo, yielding an average of €61.04, with a high estimate of €71 and a low of €53; the prevailing consensus rating is Buy, drawn from 10 Buy and 5 Hold recommendations captured over the prior three months. Contributors broadly reference defence-sector demand trends and sustained order intake momentum as underpinning the positive tilt in the distribution (Investing.com, 4 March 2026).

Alpha Spread (Wall Street consensus)

Alpha Spread aggregates sell-side and buy-side 12-month price targets for Leonardo, reporting a Wall Street average of €61.11, a high estimate of €74.55, and a low of €48.88 across its covered analyst pool. The platform projects a 4-year revenue CAGR of 8% and an operating income CAGR of 20% for the company, with the latter figure underpinning more constructive individual targets in the upper end of the range (Alpha Spread, 4 March 2026).

MarketScreener (live consensus)

MarketScreener tracks Leonardo's live analyst consensus on the Borsa Italiana listing, showing the stock last at €58.56 at the time of capture. The consensus panel on the platform incorporates multiple broker models across varying timeframes, with the distribution of ratings weighted toward Buy and Outperform at the time of the reading (MarketScreener, 4 March 2026).

Across these sources, 12-month Leonardo stock predictions converge in a range of €48.88–€74.55, with consensus averages clustering near €59–€61; the common thread across the more constructive calls is sustained order growth and upcoming strategic guidance, while more cautious views centre on valuation after a sustained re-rating.

Predictions and third-party forecasts are inherently uncertain, as they cannot fully account for unexpected market developments. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.

LDO stock price: Technical overview

The LDO stock price trades at €59.70 as of 2:08 pm UTC on 4 March 2026, holding above its full moving-average stack – the 20/50/100/200-day SMAs sit at approximately €56 / €56 / €53 / €51 respectively – with the averages aligned upward and price above all of them. The 20-over-50 alignment is intact, keeping the near-term trend tilted higher. Momentum is broadly supportive: the 14-day RSI stands at 61.70, in the upper-neutral zone, consistent with steady directional pressure while the price holds above the MA band.

The first level to watch on the topside is the classic R1 pivot at €60.25; a convincing daily close above there would put the R2 area near €63.69 back in view. Beyond that, the R3 zone around €71.08 represents the upper boundary of the current pivot range, though it sits well above the current session.

On pullbacks, the classic pivot at €56.30 provides initial reference support, broadly coinciding with the 20-day SMA shelf near €56. Losing that zone would bring the 100-day SMA near €53 into focus as the next meaningful support, with the S1 classic level at €52.86 in close proximity. A sustained break below that shelf would risk a deeper move toward the S2 area at €48.91 (TradingView, 4 March 2026).

This is technical analysis for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.

Leonardo share price history (2024–2026)

LDO’s stock price rose from approximately €20.77 in early March 2024 to €59.84 by 4 March 2026, a gain of around 188% over two years.

In 2024, the move was gradual, with the stock ending the year at €25.90, up roughly 25% and broadly in line with wider Italian equity trends. Momentum accelerated sharply in early 2025: after opening at €26.07 in January, LDO climbed to €45.32 by 3 March, a gain of about 54% in four weeks, before pulling back to €39.33 in April amid broader volatility.

The stock recovered through the second half of 2025, closing the year at €49.23, up around 90% year on year. In early 2026, it extended gains to €59.90 in January following continued defence budget focus and stronger 2025 results, finishing at €59.84 on 4 March 2026, up 16.3% year to date and 38.1% year on year.

Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.

Leonardo (LDO): Capital.com analyst view

Leonardo has risen from around €20.77 in early March 2024 to €59.84 by 4 March 2026, a gain of approximately 188%, reflecting a sustained re-rating rather than short-term volatility. The move has coincided with increased European defence spending focus and improved company fundamentals, including a 14.5% rise in new orders to €23.8 billion and a 44% reduction in net debt in its 2025 results. However, the path has not been linear, with a pullback to €39.33 in April 2025 highlighting the stock’s sensitivity to broader market conditions.

At around €59.84, the price trades above its key moving averages and close to the €59–€61 consensus target range, with upper estimates near €71. This positioning suggests that recent positive developments, including the 2025 results and the £1 billion UK helicopter contract, may already be reflected in the valuation. Further gains could depend on additional contract wins, defence budget developments or favourable currency trends, while risks include execution challenges, slower order conversion or a broader equity market correction.

CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.

Capital.com’s client sentiment for Leonardo CFDs

As of 4 March 2026, Capital.com client positioning in Leonardo CFDs is skewed toward the long side: 97% of open positions are held by buyers versus just 3% by sellers, putting buyers ahead by 94 percentage points and placing sentiment firmly one-sided. This snapshot reflects open positions on Capital.com at the time of writing and can change rapidly as market conditions evolve.

Summary – Leonardo 2026

As of 2:08 pm UTC on 4 March 2026, Leonardo (LDO) trades at €59.70, up roughly 188% from around €20.77 in early March 2024.
The stock has surged approximately 16.3% year to date in 2026 and 38.1% year on year, driven by a broad European defence sector re-rating.
All 12 moving averages point higher, with price above the full SMA stack; the 14-day RSI sits at 61.70, in upper-neutral territory with no trend exhaustion signal yet.
Classic pivot resistance sits at €60.25 (R1), with €63.69 in view on a daily close above; initial support rests at the Classic Pivot near €56.30, then the 100-day SMA near €53.
Key drivers include European defence budget developments, Leonardo's 2025 full-year results beat – new orders up 14.5% to €23.8 billion – and a 44% reduction in net debt.

Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.

FAQ

Who owns the most Leonardo stock?

Leonardo S.p.A. has a diversified shareholder base that includes institutional investors, asset managers and the Italian state. The Italian Ministry of Economy and Finance remains a significant shareholder, reflecting the company’s strategic role in national defence and aerospace. Institutional investors also hold sizeable positions through mutual funds and pension mandates. Shareholdings can change over time, so investors typically refer to the company’s latest annual report or regulatory filings for the most up-to-date ownership structure.

What is the 5 year Leonardo share price forecast?

There is no single verified five-year LDO stock forecast. Most publicly available projections focus on 12-month price targets rather than long-term estimates. Longer-term expectations depend on variables such as European defence spending, contract execution, margin development and macroeconomic conditions. Because these factors can evolve significantly over five years, any extended forecast involves considerable uncertainty and should be viewed as indicative rather than predictive.

Is Leonardo a good stock to buy?

Whether Leonardo is considered a good stock to buy depends on an individual’s objectives, risk tolerance and investment horizon. The company has reported rising orders and reduced net debt, while the share price has experienced a substantial re-rating over the past two years. However, valuation levels, execution risks and broader market conditions may influence future performance. Investors typically assess fundamentals, sector outlook and technical factors before making decisions, and outcomes are not guaranteed.

Could Leonardo stock go up or down?

Leonardo’s share price could move in either direction, as it responds to company results, contract announcements, defence budget developments and wider equity market trends. Recent gains have followed stronger financial performance and sector momentum, but past performance does not indicate future returns. Changes in margins, order conversion, macroeconomic conditions or investor sentiment could all influence price direction. Volatility remains a feature of equity markets, particularly in sectors linked to government spending cycles.

Should I invest in Leonardo stock?

Deciding whether to invest in Leonardo stock requires consideration of personal financial circumstances and risk appetite. While analyst price targets currently cluster near recent trading levels, forecasts differ and are subject to revision. Investors may review company fundamentals, valuation metrics and sector drivers before making a decision. This information is provided for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.

Can I trade Leonardo CFDs on Capital.com?

Yes, you can trade Leonardo CFDs on Capital.com. Trading share CFDs lets you speculate on price movements without owning the underlying asset and to take long or short positions. However, contracts for difference (CFDs) are traded on margin, and leverage amplifies both profits and losses. You should ensure you understand how CFD trading works, assess your risk tolerance, and recognise that losses can occur quickly.