Binance deal gives Circle a boost in stablecoin race with Tether, analysts say

Circle’s expanded deal with Binance could give USDC (USDC) more traction in emerging markets and global trading, analysts said, while putting some additional pressure on Tether’s long-held lead in the dollar-denominated stablecoin race.

Binance invested $100 million in Circle (CRCL) shares and signed a new five-year commercial agreement to promote and integrate USDC across its platform. The arrangement gives Binance a direct stake in Circle’s growth while giving Circle wider distribution through one of the world’s largest crypto exchanges.

“This optimizes the relationship and further aligns Binance's interests with Circle's, echoing Circle-Coinbase's distributor-shareholder model,” Clear Street analyst Owen Lau told CoinDesk.

Binance has already become a major USDC venue

The companies’ first partnership, announced in December 2024, has already changed how USDC trades on Binance.

The exchange offered 140 USDC-quoted spot markets when the partnership began. It now has 329, according to Kaiko. That compares with a much slower increase from 39 markets in 2021 to 140 by late 2024.

Monthly USDC trading volume on Binance has also roughly doubled, rising from the $20 billion-$40 billion range before the partnership to consistently above $80 billion.

“Throughout 2026, Binance has consistently captured the largest share of USDC spot trading activity, processing $5 million-$10 billion in daily volume, roughly 10-20 times more than most other trading venues, which typically stay below $0.5 billion,” said Anastasia Melachrinos, head of research at Kaiko.

Other major exchanges have remained broadly within their previous USDC trading ranges, according to Kaiko, suggesting Binance itself has driven much of the increase.

“As Binance accelerates USDC's reach in emerging markets, that dominance is likely to grow even further,” Melachrinos said.

More pressure on Tether

USDC has a market capitalization of about $74 billion, making it the second-largest U.S. dollar stablecoin behind Tether’s roughly $140 billion USDT.

“There is a clear incentive on both sides to grow USDC through Binance’s user base and infrastructure,” said Martins Benkitis, co-founder and CEO of Gravity Team.

Circle has also been building beyond stablecoin issuance. Its Circle Payments Network is designed to connect financial institutions for stablecoin payments, while its recently announced $400 million acquisition of Singapore-based Tazapay would add local banking relationships and payment rails across emerging markets.

The strategy comes as stablecoin competition broadens beyond Circle and Tether. Banks and payment companies including Visa, Mastercard and Stripe have been pushing further into stablecoin payments and infrastructure.

Circle also has a close commercial relationship with Coinbase, which distributes USDC and shares in its economics. Lau said the Binance agreement does not give Circle additional leverage over Coinbase, noting that Circle recently renewed that partnership.

Binance can put USDC in front of more users, but Tether’s long-established trading and payment network will make market share difficult to shift quickly.

“That puts more pressure on USDT, particularly in global trading and emerging markets, where it has built a very strong position over many years,” Benkitis said. “But distribution alone won’t change that overnight. USDT has deep trading pairs, local liquidity and, importantly, people are already used to using it.”