AJ Bell warns AI capex boom risks stalling if capital markets balk at funding needs

By Public Technologies
  • AJ Bell analysis flags rising downside risks to the AI capex boom as hyperscalers’ free cash flow weakens, fixed assets grow, debt rises.
  • Aggregate capex across Alphabet, Amazon, Coreweave, Meta, Microsoft, Nebius, Oracle, SpaceX forecast at $971 billion, or 46% of sales.
  • Consensus expects $1.3 trillion in 2027 capex, rising to $1.4 trillion in 2028, with capex-to-sales projected to ease.
  • Key threat: capital markets could demand higher funding costs or refuse new equity or debt, forcing a spending pullback.
  • Worst-case scenario: AI fails to deliver productivity gains, demand softens, competition and regulation erode profits despite heavy depreciation burdens.


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