Leonardo stock forecast: Avincis order, Iveco deal

Leonardo is an Italian aerospace and defence group. In June 2026, it announced an Avincis helicopter order and received EU approval for its Iveco Defence deal. Explore third-party LDO price targets and technical analysis. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.

By Dan Mitchellan hour ago

Leonardo S.p.A. (LDO) is trading at €52.66 in early European trading as of 8:39am UTC on 16 June 2026, within an intraday range of €51.94–€53.83. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.

Sentiment toward Leonardo has been shaped by several near-term developments. On 15 June 2026, Reuters reported that the company secured an order for 15 helicopters – 10 AW169 and five AW139 models – from operator Avincis, with no contract value disclosed (Reuters, 15 June 2026). Separately, the European Commission approved Leonardo's acquisition of Iveco Defence Vehicles, covering the IDV and ASTRA brands, clearing the final regulatory hurdle for a transaction completed in March at €1.60bn (IEU Monitoring, 18 March 2026). The broader European defence sector has also been supported by elevated NATO spending commitments, with member states having pledged to raise defence expenditure toward 5% of GDP by 2035 – a backdrop that may continue to influence institutional demand for defence-sector equities (Leonardo S.p.A., 6 May 2026).

Third-party LDO outlook: orders, defence spending and targets

As of 15 June 2026, third-party Leonardo stock predictions reflect differing views on European defence budget expansion, order backlog conversion, the integration of Iveco Defence, and the near-term margin outlook. The following briefs summarise broker actions and consensus estimates captured during that period.

MarketBeat (Morgan Stanley reiteration)

Morgan Stanley reiterated its Overweight rating on Leonardo on 1 June 2026, maintaining a constructive stance as the most recently recorded action on the stock within MarketBeat's tracker. The broader panel of eight analysts tracked by MarketBeat gives a Moderate Buy consensus, comprising two Strong Buy, two Buy, and four Hold ratings, amid continued institutional interest in European defence names (MarketBeat, 16 June 2026).

Leonardo IR (equity coverage panel)

Leonardo's investor relations equity coverage page lists 20 active sell-side brokers with an average 12-month price target of €67.52. The range runs from €56.10 to €83, with Morgan Stanley at €83 (Overweight), BofA-ML at €79.50 (Buy), Barclays at €74 (Overweight), and JP Morgan, Deutsche Bank and Mediobanca each at €70. More cautious estimates include Jefferies at €62 (Hold) and Goldman Sachs at €63 (Neutral), reflecting varying assumptions about defence procurement conversion timelines (Leonardo S.p.A., 11 June 2026).

Investing.com (sell-side consensus)

Investing.com aggregates projections from 18 analysts covering Leonardo and records an average 12-month price target of €68.67 as of mid-June 2026, within a range of €61.50–€83. Eleven of the 18 analysts carry a Buy recommendation, with the constructive skew reflecting strong Q1 2026 results and elevated European defence procurement expectations (Investing.com, 16 June 2026).

MarketScreener (consensus overview)

MarketScreener reports a mean Outperform consensus for Leonardo across 18 analysts, with an average 12-month price target of €68.31, a high target of €82, and a low target of €61.50, based on data captured in early June 2026. The platform notes that the average target sits approximately 29.80% above the last close price of €52.63, with the spread between high and low estimates reflecting divergent views on the pace of margin expansion following the Iveco Defence integration (MarketScreener, 2 June 2026).

Simply Wall St (fair value and analyst target update)

Simply Wall St revised its implied fair value estimate for Leonardo to approximately €80.22, up from roughly €54.56, citing updated analyst price targets and mixed rating changes factored into the model. The platform separately notes that the average analyst-derived 12-month price target has moved to approximately €68.67, as earnings revisions and order backlog momentum prompted a reassessment of near-term growth assumptions (Simply Wall St, 14 June 2026).

Takeaway: across these third-party sources, 12-month consensus targets for Leonardo cluster in a range of approximately €61.50–€83, with average estimates converging near €67.50–€68.70. Common themes include European defence spending, strong Q1 2026 earnings delivery, and the Iveco Defence integration, while Hold and Neutral ratings at the lower end of the distribution reflect valuation discipline after a sustained re-rating.

Predictions and third-party forecasts are inherently uncertain, as they cannot fully account for unexpected market developments. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.

Leonardo earnings: Q1 2026 results and next scheduled release

Leonardo's Board of Directors approved the Q1 2026 results on 5 May 2026, reporting new orders of €9bn, up 31% year on year; revenues of €4.40bn, up 7%; EBITA of €281m, up 33%; and free operating cash flow (FOCF) of negative €411m, a 29% improvement versus Q1 2025 (Leonardo S.p.A., 6 May 2026). The company confirmed its full-year 2026 guidance, with return on sales (ROS) reaching 6.3% in the quarter, up 1.2 percentage points year on year (Investing.com, 5 May 2026).

The Q1 release also noted Moody's upgrade of Leonardo's credit rating from Baa3 to Baa2 with a positive outlook, and S&P's outlook revision from stable to positive, with both actions cited as reflecting solid financial and operating performance alongside strong growth prospects (Simply Wall St, 30 May 2026). The Iveco Defence acquisition, completed in March 2026 for €1.60bn, was fully consolidated on the balance sheet as of 31 March 2026, with its income statement, order and cash flow contribution beginning from 1 April 2026 (Leonardo S.p.A., 6 May 2026).

Leonardo's next scheduled earnings event is the H1 2026 interim results, with the Board of Directors meeting set for 30 July 2026 and the earnings release confirmed for 31 July 2026, according to the company's financial calendar (MarketScreener, 5 May 2026). An ex-dividend date of 22 June 2026 is also scheduled, with a declared dividend of €0.63 per share (Stock Analysis, 16 June 2026).

LDO stock price: technical overview

The LDO stock price trades at €52.66 as of 8:39am UTC on 16 June 2026, sitting just below its classic pivot at €53.22 and broadly in line with a dense moving-average shelf where the 20-, 50-, 100- and 200-day SMAs cluster near €52, €53, €56 and €53, respectively. Price holds above the short-term 10- and 20-day SMAs of around €52.15 and €52.37, though the 100-day SMA at €55.82 remains elevated overhead. That leaves the medium-term picture more mixed than the near-term setup alone suggests.

Momentum is broadly neutral. The 14-day RSI registers 50, a mid-range reading that carries no directional lean, while the ADX (14) at 11.61 sits well below the 15 threshold, indicating an absence of a defined trend at this stage, according to TradingView data.

On the topside, the classic R1 at €57.90 is the first reference above the current price; a daily close above that level would put R2 at €61.38 in view. To the downside, the classic pivot at €53.22 acts as an initial reference level, with the 50-day SMA at €53.46 running close by. A sustained move beneath that shelf could open a path toward S1 at €49.74 (TradingView, 15 June 2026).

This is technical analysis for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.

Leonardo share price history (2024–2026)

LDO’s stock price traded in the low-to-mid €20s through mid-2024, broadly range-bound as defence spending pledges remained in discussion rather than legislation. The stock closed at €20.05 on 30 September 2024, little changed from €21.90 at the start of July.

The larger move began in late 2024 and accelerated through 2025, as NATO members formalised higher spending commitments and Russia’s war in Ukraine kept procurement pipelines active. LDO closed 2024 at €25.90 and ended 2025 at €49.23 – a gain of roughly 90% over the calendar year, consistent with the broader European defence re-rating that saw sector peers post strong annual returns.

The rally extended into early 2026, with LDO reaching €66.37 intraday on 12 March 2026 – a data-set high – around the time Leonardo unveiled its 2026–2030 industrial plan, which included a target to double profits by 2030. A pullback followed through April and into May, with the stock briefly touching €33.83 intraday on 7 April 2026 amid a broader market sell-off before recovering.

LDO closed at €52.62 on 16 June 2026, approximately 6.9% higher than its 2025 year-end close of €49.23, but around 21% below the March 2026 intraday peak of €66.37.

Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Share prices are indicative and may differ from live market prices.

Leonardo (LDO): Capital.com analyst view

Leonardo’s price performance over the past two years reflects a broad structural re-rating of European defence equities, supported by rising NATO spending commitments, a strong order backlog, and improving profitability metrics. The stock’s move from the low €20s in mid-2024 to an intraday peak above €66 in March 2026 shows how far the market repriced the company’s long-term earnings potential, particularly following the 2026–2030 industrial plan and the Iveco Defence acquisition.

That said, the subsequent pullback toward the €49–€52 range through May and into June 2026 illustrates that sentiment can shift quickly, whether due to broader market risk-off moves, valuation concerns after a sharp re-rating, or uncertainty around integration costs and execution timelines.

At current levels near €52.66, Leonardo trades well below its March 2026 highs, yet meaningfully above its 2024 base. That leaves the stock caught between a constructive fundamental backdrop and a more cautious near-term technical picture. Continued European defence budget growth could support order momentum, while any deceleration in political will around spending commitments, or disappointment in H1 2026 results due 31 July 2026, could weigh on the shares.

CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.

Capital.com’s client sentiment for Leonardo CFDs

As of 15 June 2026, Capital.com client positioning in Leonardo CFDs stands at 98.1% buyers versus 1.9% sellers, putting buyers ahead by 96.2 percentage points – a heavily one-sided skew toward longs. This snapshot reflects open positions on Capital.com and can change.

Summary – Leonardo 2026

LDO trades at €52.66 as of 8:39am UTC on 16 June 2026, up roughly 6.9% year to date from the €49.23 close at the end of 2025.
Key drivers include elevated European NATO spending commitments, strong Q1 2026 results, with revenues up 7% and EBITA up 33%, and the completed €1.60bn Iveco Defence acquisition.
On 15 June 2026, the European Commission approved Leonardo’s Iveco Defence acquisition, while Leonardo separately secured an order for 15 helicopters from operator Avincis.
H1 2026 interim results are scheduled for 31 July 2026, with an ex-dividend date of 22 June 2026 and a declared dividend of €0.63 per share.

Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.

FAQ

Who owns the most Leonardo stock?

Leonardo has a mixed ownership structure, with the Italian Ministry of Economy and Finance remaining a key shareholder. Institutional investors also hold positions in the company, reflecting Leonardo’s role in the European defence and aerospace sector. Ownership can change over time, so traders often review the company’s latest investor relations materials, regulatory filings and exchange disclosures for the most current breakdown before assessing shareholder concentration or governance-related factors.

What is the five-year Leonardo share price forecast?

Five-year LDO stock forecasts vary widely because they depend on assumptions about defence spending, order backlog conversion, margins, integration of Iveco Defence, and broader equity-market conditions. The article focuses on third-party 12-month targets, which cluster around €61.50–€83, rather than longer-term forecasts. Any five-year view should be treated as uncertain, as changes in policy, procurement cycles, earnings delivery and valuation multiples can materially affect future price expectations.

Is Leonardo a good stock to buy?

Whether Leonardo is a good stock to buy depends on individual objectives, risk tolerance, time horizon and market view. The company has benefited from higher European defence spending, strong Q1 2026 results and a substantial order backdrop, but the share price has also pulled back from its March 2026 high. That shows how quickly sentiment can shift. This article is for information only and does not constitute financial advice or a recommendation.

Could Leonardo stock go up or down?

Leonardo stock could move in either direction. Upside factors may include continued European defence budget growth, order momentum, margin improvement and successful integration of Iveco Defence. Downside risks may include weaker-than-expected earnings, valuation pressure after a strong re-rating, delays in procurement conversion, integration costs or broader market sell-offs. Technical indicators in the article suggest a mixed near-term picture, with momentum broadly neutral and no clearly defined trend at this stage.

Should I invest in Leonardo stock?

The decision to invest in Leonardo stock should be based on your own research, financial circumstances and risk tolerance. The stock has risen significantly from its 2024 levels, but remains below its March 2026 peak, which underlines both the potential and the risks of equity exposure. You may wish to consider fundamentals, technical signals, analyst views and upcoming earnings, but this content should not be treated as investment advice.

Can I trade Leonardo CFDs on Capital.com?

Yes, you can trade Leonardo CFDs on Capital.com. Trading share CFDs lets you speculate on price movements without owning the underlying asset and to take long or short positions. However, contracts for difference (CFDs) are traded on margin, and leverage amplifies both profits and losses. You should ensure you understand how CFD trading works, assess your risk tolerance, and recognise that losses can occur quickly.