BP stock forecast: Third-party BP price target

BP’s share price continues to draw attention as the company balances traditional energy with its move into renewables, and third-party analysts remain divided on where BP stock could head next.

By Dan Mitchell12:26 (UTC), 28 August 2025 Updated

BP stock forecast: Third-party BP price target — A drilling platform in the Gulf of Mexico sits behind a slick from British Petroleum's Deepwater Horizon oil spill Photo: Elliott Cowand Jr / Shutterstock

In this guide, we outline the latest BP stock predictions, recent price targets, and the factors influencing the outlook over the coming years.

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Current BP price and market position

BP p.l.c. (BP) is one of the world’s largest integrated energy companies, operating across oil, gas and renewables in more than 70 countries. The business remains a key presence in both traditional fuels and the global energy transition, investing in renewables, hydrogen and carbon capture, while maintaining substantial oil and gas output.

In 2025, performance has been driven by stronger oil and gas prices, steady production volumes and ongoing shareholder returns through dividends and share buybacks. At the same time, BP has grown its renewables portfolio, with interests in around 10GW of developed capacity and over 30,000 EV charging points worldwide by mid-2025. Over the past year, BP has progressed major hydrogen and carbon capture projects, while continuing to manage the balance between profit delivery and longer-term transition objectives.

As of close on 20 August 2025, the BP share price stood at 418.90 GBX, giving the company a market capitalisation of £66.2bn. Over the past 24 hours and seven days, BP’s share price has remained relatively stable, in line with broader movements across the energy sector. Since the start of January 2025, BP’s stock has gained around 6%, rising from 395 GBX. However, it’s down from 429.57 GBX at the same point last year, and has traded within a 52-week range of 329.20 GBX to 472.25 GBX.

Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.

Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Analyst forecasts may be inaccurate, can change with new information, and should not substitute your own research. Always carry out independent analysis before trading, and never risk more than you can afford to lose.

BP stock price forecast: Analyst outlook

As of August 2025, third-party analysts continued to revise their BP stock forecasts and price targets:

Berenberg Bank – upgraded BP to ‘buy’, raising its price target from 385 GBX to 500 GBX.
JP Morgan Cazenove – maintained a ‘neutral’ stance but increased its target from 420 GBX to 440 GBX.
RBC Capital Markets – kept ‘sector perform’ and moved its target up from 450 GBX to 470 GBX.
Jefferies – reiterated ‘hold’ and set its price target at 390 GBX.

Motley Fool contributor Harvey Jones noted BP is now two quarters into its 12-quarter transformation plan, having shifted its focus back to oil production. According to Jones, this approach is delivering results, though the outlook continues to be influenced by volatility in oil prices, geopolitical risk and the broader energy transition. He added that BP’s long-term prospects depend on continued cash flow, disciplined cost management, and investor confidence in the plan’s delivery.

Morningstar analyst Allen Good highlighted BP's Q2 2025 earnings: ‘Exceeded market expectations on strong earnings from the gas and low-carbon energy, and customers and products segments’. The report pointed to BP’s ongoing portfolio and cost reviews, following engagement between management and the board. Morningstar maintained its fair value estimate at 445 GBX, with Good stating: ‘Our valuation suggests BP will be relatively successful in its efforts to cut costs and improve returns. However, like the market, we have preferred Shell's more aggressive approach.’ The commentary also acknowledged progress on asset sales and cost reduction.

What could influence BP’s share price?

A range of factors can affect the BP stock forecast, from commodity price swings to changes in the regulatory landscape. Here are some of the main influences traders watch:

Oil and gas prices

Higher prices for oil and natural gas can support BP’s revenues and may be reflected in share price performance. Significant declines in commodity prices often weigh on earnings potential and market sentiment.

Energy transition and renewables

BP’s investments in renewables and low-carbon technology form part of its long-term strategy. Progress on these projects could be viewed positively by some investors, including those with an ESG focus. Delays or a slowdown in energy transition efforts may attract regulatory scrutiny and increase pressure on sentiment.

Company strategy and financial performance

Clear strategic direction, cost control, and solid earnings are generally seen as supportive of BP’s valuation. Inconsistent strategy or disappointing results, particularly relative to competitors, may weigh on investor confidence and the share price.

Macroeconomic conditions and global demand

Stronger economic growth and rising energy demand can underpin BP’s production outlook. Economic slowdowns, weak demand forecasts, or concerns over global recession risk may pose challenges for demand and weigh on investor sentiment.

Geopolitical events

Geopolitical stability and the resolution of major conflicts may reduce uncertainty in the sector by easing supply concerns. However, sanctions, wars, or supply disruptions in key regions can contribute to volatility and negatively impact BP’s operations and share price outlook.

Regulation and tax

Changes to regulation, environmental targets, or tax policy can alter BP’s cost base and operational environment. Supportive policy moves may be seen as beneficial for the share price, while new windfall taxes or stricter emissions standards could increase costs and put pressure on profitability.

Mergers, acquisitions and activism

Acquisition activity, strategic partnerships, or involvement from activist investors can influence BP’s share price in the short term, either positively or negatively. Conversely, failed deals or prolonged disputes may create uncertainty and weigh on performance.

When you trade BP shares with us, you’re using contracts for difference (CFDs). CFDs let you speculate on price movements in both directions without owning the underlying shares. CFDs are traded on margin, so leverage above 1:1 can amplify both profits and losses, making leveraged trading risky.

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FAQ

Where can I buy BP stock?

You can buy BP shares through the London Stock Exchange under the ticker ‘BP’ or access American Depositary Receipts (ADRs) on the New York Stock Exchange under the same ticker. Most brokers and trading platforms that offer UK or US market access will list BP shares. If you’re looking for exposure without owning shares directly, you can also trade contracts for difference (CFDs) on the BP share price.

Is BP a good stock to buy?

Whether BP suits your portfolio depends on your trading goals and risk tolerance. As of August 2025, third-party BP stock analyst outlooks showed a wide range of price targets and views, with no clear consensus. Factors to consider include the company’s energy transition strategy, recent earnings, and broader market trends. Always conduct your own research and ensure your decision fits your risk management approach.

Could BP rise or fall?

BP’s share price may move in response to changes in oil and gas prices, earnings updates, sector news or global economic conditions. Positive catalysts could include progress on renewables or higher commodity prices, while regulatory challenges or volatility in energy markets may weigh on performance. Third-party BP stock analyst expectations highlight a variety of potential scenarios.