BASF stock forecast: 2026 guidance miss, Q1 results

BASF is a global chemicals company whose 2026 EBITDA guidance, proposed €2.25 dividend and upcoming Q1 2026 results remain central to the current market narrative. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Explore third-party BAS price targets and technical analysis.

By Dan Mitchell51 minutes ago

BASF company flags in red, blue, and green displayed outside an industrial building — Photo: Shutterstock

BASF SE (BAS) is trading at €51.45 as of 2:05 pm UTC on 8 April 2026, within an intraday range of €51–€52.36 on the Capital.com quote feed. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.

Sentiment around BASF has been shaped by several concurrent factors. The company's full-year 2025 results, published in late February 2026, guided 2026 EBITDA before special items at €6.2–€7.0 billion, with the upper bound falling short of the average analyst consensus of €7.02 billion, as BASF cited weak European automotive and construction demand alongside currency headwinds (Investing.com, 27 February 2026). Separately, BASF announced price increases of up to 30% across home-care and industrial cleaning product lines in Europe, citing raw material volatility, logistics cost pressures, and elevated energy prices (Reuters, 18 March 2026). Meanwhile, the broader macro backdrop has continued to reflect lingering US trade policy uncertainty, with the effective US tariff rate reported to remain nearly double pre-2025 levels as of early April 2026 (CNBC, 3 April 2026). BASF's Annual Shareholders' Meeting, at which shareholders are expected to consider a proposed dividend of €2.25 per share for the 2025 business year, is scheduled for 30 April 2026, with Q1 2026 results due the same day (AD HOC NEWS, 7 April 2026).

BASF stock forecast 2026–2030: Third-party price targets

As of 8 April 2026, third-party BASF stock predictions span a notably wide range, reflecting diverging views on the pace of a European chemicals-cycle recovery, the group's restructuring delivery, and the evolving impact of Middle East conflict dynamics on input costs and demand.

Barclays (Underweight, floor target)

Barclays reiterates an Underweight rating and a €40 price target, the lowest active target among covering brokers. Analyst Katie Richards flags that BASF, Lanxess, and Evonik remain among the names most exposed to upstream raw material production, with the group's 2026 estimated free cash flow yield of 1.4% and net debt/EBITDA of 2.7x making its current valuation difficult to justify (MarketScreener, 2 April 2026).

Kepler Cheuvreux (Hold, downgrade)

Kepler Cheuvreux downgrades BASF to Hold from Buy, trimming its price target to €54 from €56. Analyst Christian Faitz argues that sentiment around BASF as a net beneficiary of Middle East conflict dynamics has become overdone, as the group is not fully insulated from broader inflationary and demand-side pressures (MarketScreener, 31 March 2026).

UBS (Neutral, cautious revision)

UBS raises its price target for BASF to €52 from €47 while retaining a Neutral rating. Analyst Geoff Haire notes that his EBITDA estimate sits 3% below the consensus forecast ahead of Q1 2026 results due 30 April, with longer-dated projections remaining more cautious than the market average amid uncertainty over the short- to medium-term earnings impact of the Iran conflict (MarketScreener, 1 April 2026).

Deutsche Bank (Buy, upgrade)

Deutsche Bank upgrades BASF to Buy from Hold and raises its price target to €55 from €45. Analyst Virginie Boucher-Ferte reshuffles her European chemicals sector ratings amid elevated Middle East uncertainty, identifying BASF as a name positioned to benefit within the sector against that backdrop (MarketScreener, 24 March 2026).

Goldman Sachs (Buy, highest active target)

Goldman Sachs reiterates a Buy rating and raises its BAS stock forecast to €63 from €61. Analyst Georgina Fraser retains a constructive view, citing BASF's structural cost levers and longer-dated earnings recovery potential as the key basis for the upward revision (MarketScreener, 2 April 2026).

Takeaway: across these sources, BASF stock predictions range from €40 (Barclays) to €63 (Goldman Sachs), with UBS at €52 and Deutsche Bank at €55 clustering near the multi-analyst consensus mean of approximately €50.83. The common thread across bulls and bears is uncertainty over the timing of a chemicals-cycle upturn, with Middle East cost dynamics and the 30 April Q1 results serving as the near-term focal point.

Predictions and third-party forecasts are inherently uncertain, as they cannot fully account for unexpected market developments. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.

BAS stock price: Technical overview

The BAS stock price trades at €51.45 as of 2:05 pm UTC on 8 April 2026, above a broadly supportive moving-average cluster where the 20/50/100/200-day SMAs sit at approximately €49 / €49 / €46 / €45, according to TradingView data. The 20-over-50 alignment is intact across both the simple and exponential moving-average families, which is consistent with a near-term constructive trend structure. The Hull moving average (9) at €51.32 registers a sell signal, sitting just below the last price and indicating some short-term caution near current levels.

The 14-day RSI sits at 58.42, placing momentum in the upper-neutral range, while the MACD (12, 26) reads 1.11 on a buy signal, and the ADX (14) at 22.57 indicates a trend that is developing but not yet firmly established. The nearest classic resistance reference is R1 at €55.67; a daily close above that level would put R2 near €58.95 in view. On the downside, the classic pivot point at €49.79 represents initial support, followed by the 100-day SMA shelf near €46; a move towards S1 at €46.51 would bring price close to that longer-term moving-average zone (TradingView, 8 April 2026).

This is technical analysis for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.

BASF share price history (2024–2026)

BAS’s stock price closed on 9 April 2024 at €53.50. The share quickly faded from there, sliding through the mid-€40s over summer and touching a two-year low of €40.24 on 5 August 2024 as broader European equity markets came under pressure. BAS closed out 2024 at €42.58, down roughly 20% from the April peak.

The first quarter of 2025 brought a sharp recovery, with BAS climbing to a session high of €55.14 on 6 March – the strongest level in the dataset. That rally reversed quickly: US tariff announcements hit European industrials hard in early April 2025, dragging BAS to an intraday low of €39.09 on 9 April 2025, almost half the March high in just a matter of weeks. The stock gradually stabilised through the second half of 2025, closing the year at €44.61 on 30 December 2025, up around 4.7% year on year but well below the March peak.

BAS closed at €51.59 on 8 April 2026, which is approximately 15.1% up year to date from the 2 January 2026 close of €44.84, and around 3.6% below the level recorded a year earlier on 9 April 2024.

Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.

BASF (BAS): Capital.com analyst view

BASF's share price has endured a turbulent two years, reflecting the broader challenges facing European chemicals. The stock reached a dataset high of €55.14 in March 2025 before US tariff announcements triggered a sharp pullback to a two-year low of €39.09 in April 2025 – a move that illustrated how exposed large-cap industrials can be to abrupt shifts in trade policy. Since then, BAS has recovered to the low €50s, supported by Deutsche Bank's upgrade to Buy and Goldman Sachs' price target lift to €63 in early April 2026, as well as BASF's announced price increases of up to 30% in care chemicals, which could support margins if demand holds. However, Barclays and J.P. Morgan retain bearish ratings, arguing that weak European industrial demand and an elevated net debt/EBITDA ratio of 2.7x leave limited room for upside, particularly if the anticipated chemicals-cycle recovery takes longer than the market expects.

With Q1 2026 results due on 30 April and a proposed dividend of €2.25 per share to be considered at the Annual Shareholders' Meeting the same day, near-term sentiment could shift in either direction depending on whether earnings trends validate the bulls' case or confirm the bears' concerns over BASF's guidance range of €6.2–€7.0 billion in adjusted EBITDA for 2026.

CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.

Summary – BASF 2026

BAS trades at €51.45 as of 2:05 pm UTC on 8 April 2026, up around 15% year to date from €44.84 at the start of 2026.
Key drivers include BASF's 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance of €6.2–€7.0 billion, US trade policy uncertainty, and ongoing weakness in European industrial and automotive demand.
BASF raised care chemicals prices by up to 30% in March 2026 amid elevated energy and raw material costs; whether volumes hold at higher prices remains an open question.
Q1 2026 results and the Annual Shareholders' Meeting are both scheduled for 30 April 2026, with a proposed dividend of €2.25 per share on the agenda.

Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.

FAQ

Who owns the most BASF stock?

BASF’s shareholder base typically includes a mix of institutional investors, asset managers and retail shareholders, but ownership can change over time as holdings are updated. In the context of this article, the more relevant point is that BASF is widely followed by analysts and large market participants, which can contribute to regular price reassessments around earnings, guidance and macro developments. Investors should check BASF’s latest shareholder disclosures for the most up-to-date ownership breakdown.

What is the 5 year BASF share price forecast?

A five-year BAS stock forecast is difficult to treat as reliable because long-term estimates depend on assumptions that can shift materially over time. As this article shows, even shorter-term analyst targets published in late March and early April 2026 already vary widely, from €40 to €63. Over a five-year horizon, factors such as chemicals demand, energy costs, trade policy, restructuring progress and global growth could all influence the share price in different ways.

Is BASF a good stock to buy?

Whether BASF is a good stock to buy depends on an individual’s objectives, risk tolerance, time horizon and view of the chemicals sector. The article presents both supportive and cautious arguments. On one hand, some analysts point to restructuring potential, cost levers and a possible earnings recovery. On the other, weak European industrial demand, leverage metrics and uncertainty around the timing of any sector recovery continue to shape a more restrained view. This is not investment advice.

Could BASF stock go up or down?

BASF stock could move in either direction, depending on how company-specific and macroeconomic factors develop. The article highlights several near-term drivers, including Q1 2026 results, the Annual Shareholders’ Meeting, BASF’s 2026 EBITDA guidance, pricing actions in care chemicals, and wider trade and energy-related uncertainty. Technical indicators suggest a constructive near-term structure, but they also point to some short-term caution. As with any listed share, past performance does not guarantee future returns.

Should I invest in BASF stock?

Only you can decide whether BASF fits your portfolio, and that decision should reflect your own financial situation and research. This article is designed to inform, not recommend a course of action. BASF’s recent price recovery, mixed analyst targets and exposure to external risks such as tariffs, industrial demand and input costs mean there is no single conclusion that suits every investor. Many traders and investors compare fundamentals, valuation, technical signals and risk exposure before making a decision.

Can I trade BASF CFDs on Capital.com?

Yes, you can trade BASF CFDs on Capital.com. Trading share CFDs lets you speculate on price movements without owning the underlying asset and to take long or short positions. However, contracts for difference (CFDs) are traded on margin, and leverage amplifies both profits and losses. You should ensure you understand how CFD trading works, assess your risk tolerance, and recognise that losses can occur quickly.