Allianz stock forecast: Record profit, dividend, buyback

Allianz (ALV) is a German insurer and asset manager; shares softened after record 2025 operating profit (€17.4bn), a proposed €17.10 dividend and a €2.5bn buyback, alongside flat 2026 guidance. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Explore third-party ALV price targets.

By Dan Mitchell7 minutes ago

Photo: Shutterstock

Allianz SE (ALV) is trading at €352.80 as of 4:57pm UTC on 5 March 2026, within an intraday range of €351.80–€363.30 on Capital.com's feed. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.

Shares came under pressure after Allianz reported a record 2025 operating profit of €17.4bn – up 8.4% year-on-year – alongside a proposed dividend of €17.10 per share (up 11%) and a new €2.5bn share buyback programme set to commence in March 2026 (AFP, 26 February 2026). Management guided to an unchanged €17.4bn operating profit target for 2026, which some market participants interpreted as more measured near-term earnings growth (Investing.com, 26 February 2026). Separately, AllianzGI announced a 50% acquisition stake in a 789MW battery storage portfolio from TotalEnergies in Germany, while Allianz X led a €195m funding round into Latin American neobank Ualá, reflecting ongoing capital deployment across infrastructure and venture (Reuters, 3 March 2026). The next major catalyst is the publication of Allianz's final audited 2025 annual report on 13 March 2026, with Q1 2026 results scheduled for 13 May 2026 (Allianz, Accessed 5 March 2026).

Allianz stock forecast 2026–2030: Third-party price targets

As of 5 March 2026, third-party Allianz stock predictions span a notable range following the group's record full-year 2025 results, cautious 2026 operating profit guidance, and a new €2.5bn share buyback programme announced in late February 2026. The following assessments are drawn from broker and consensus sources.

RBC Capital Markets (coverage initiation)

RBC Capital Markets initiates coverage of ALV with a Sector Perform rating and a 12-month price target of €405, implying approximately 10% upside from the €367.10 close on 12 February 2026, inclusive of a 4.7% dividend yield for a total indicated return of around 15%. The bank describes the shares as appropriately valued relative to peers, noting a modest premium it attributes to Allianz's track record of above-average operational delivery, while flagging that much of this performance already appears priced in (Investing.com, 17 February 2026).

Berenberg (target raised)

Berenberg raises its 12-month ALV stock forecast to €459 and reiterates a Buy recommendation, placing its estimate at the upper end of the published broker range. The bank cites expected capital generation and the prospect of additional capital returns, including the announced buyback, as factors underpinning the revision within the context of broader European insurance sector earnings updates (MarketScreener, 9 February 2026).

Eulerpool (consensus snapshot)

Eulerpool's current March 2026 consensus snapshot places the median 12-month analyst price target for ALV at €403.41, with 52% of contributing analysts carrying a Buy recommendation, 40% a Hold, and 8% a Sell, across a pool of 25 ratings. The platform captures the post-results recalibration across the sell side, as cautious 2026 guidance from management tempers some of the optimism generated by the record €17.4bn operating profit reported for 2025 (Eulerpool, March 2026).

Takeaway: across these sources, 12-month Allianz stock predictions average around €400–€405. The dominant consensus rating is Hold, reflecting a broadly balanced view between the group's strong capital position and measured near-term earnings growth expectations.

Predictions and third-party forecasts are inherently uncertain, as they cannot fully account for unexpected market developments. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.

ALV stock price: Technical overview

The ALV stock price trades at €352.80 as of 4:57pm UTC on 5 March 2026, sitting below the entire moving-average stack as every key SMA from the 10-day through the 200-day issues a sell signal. The 20/50/100/200-day SMAs cluster in the €371–€378 range, at approximately 373 / 378 / 371 / 362 respectively, with price tracking well beneath all four levels. No bullish moving-average alignment is present, as shorter-term averages also sit below longer-term averages overall.

Momentum is weak but not yet deeply oversold. The 14-day RSI reads 32.7, sitting in the lower portion of neutral territory and approaching, but not yet confirming, an oversold condition. The ADX (14) at 22.6 falls just below the 25 threshold, indicating the current downtrend doesn’t yet show a strongly established directional trend reading.

To the upside, the classic R1 pivot at 384.6 is the first reference to recover; a convincing daily close above that level would put R2 near 402.1 back in view. The 100- and 200-day EMA area sits lower, near 370–371, so any rebound would still need to reclaim that moving-average resistance to improve the near-term picture.

On pullbacks, the classic pivot (P) at 375.2 now acts as the immediate overhead reference rather than support, with S1 at 361.4 the first meaningful downside level to watch. Losing S1 on a daily close would risk a move toward the S2 area near 352.0, which closely matches the current last price and underscores how extended the recent decline has been. The 200-day SMA near 362 provides a potential stabilisation shelf, but price would need to reclaim it to reduce downside pressure (TradingView, 5 March 2026).

This is technical analysis for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.

Allianz share price history (2024–2026)

ALV’s stock price opened March 2024 around €254.75, then climbed steadily through the spring and summer – reaching a local peak near €278 in late March before easing back. The stock consolidated in a broad €255–€275 range through mid-2024, then dipped sharply in early August 2024, touching a two-year low of €240.35 on 5 August amid a broader market sell-off.

Recovery from that trough was gradual but consistent. ALV reclaimed the €280 level by September 2024 and pushed through €300 by the turn of the year, closing 2024 at €296.10. The momentum carried firmly into 2025, with the stock crossing €320 in February, then rallying through the spring to a multi-year high of €392.90 on 8 January 2026.

That peak coincided with Allianz's record full-year 2025 earnings period. However, ALV pulled back sharply following the release of cautious 2026 guidance alongside those results in late February 2026, retreating from highs above €392 to its current level.

ALV is trading at €352.80 as of 5 March 2026, which is approximately 19.3% up over the past 12 months, but around 10.1% down from the January 2026 peak of €392.90.

Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.

Allianz (ALV): Capital.com analyst view

Allianz's price performance over the past two years reflects a broadly positive trajectory, with the stock more than doubling from its August 2024 lows near €240 to a peak above €392 in early January 2026, underpinned by record operating profit, consistent dividend growth, and a series of share buyback programmes. The group's diversified model – spanning property and casualty insurance, life and health, and asset management through Allianz Global Investors – has supported earnings resilience across varying macroeconomic conditions, which some market participants view as a relative strength in an uncertain rate environment. However, the sharp retreat from January highs following cautious 2026 guidance illustrates how quickly sentiment can shift when earnings growth expectations moderate, and the stock now trades below its key moving-average cluster, suggesting near-term selling pressure may not have fully abated.

On the other hand, the announced €2.5bn share buyback and an 11% dividend increase signal management confidence in capital generation, which could act as a support factor for the share price. Equally, any deterioration in underwriting profitability, adverse claims experience, or a meaningful shift in European interest rates could weigh on sentiment and the share price.

CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.

Capital.com’s client sentiment for Allianz CFDs

As of 5 March 2026, Capital.com client positioning in Allianz CFDs shows 98.2% buyers vs 1.8% sellers, putting buyers ahead by 96.4 percentage points and placing sentiment in a strongly long-biased range. This snapshot reflects open positions on Capital.com and can change.

Summary – Allianz 2026

ALV trades at €352.80 as of 4:57pm UTC on 5 March 2026, around 10% below the January 2026 peak of €392.90, but approximately 19% up year on year.
Technical indicators are broadly bearish, with price below all key SMAs and the 14-day RSI at 32.7; the ADX sits just below 25, suggesting the downtrend lacks full momentum confirmation.
Key drivers include Allianz's record 2025 operating profit of €17.4bn, cautious flat 2026 guidance, a €2.5bn share buyback, and an 11% dividend increase to €17.10 per share.

Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.

FAQ

Who owns the most Allianz stock?

Allianz states that its shares are held 100% in free float, with 978,408 shareholders recorded as of 31 December 2025, which implies no single disclosed controlling owner in its share register. In practice, sizeable positions can sit with large asset managers and funds (for example, index and mutual funds listed among major holders), but these holdings can change over time as portfolios rebalance.

What is the 5 year Allianz share price forecast?

There isn’t a single, reliable five-year price ALV stock forecast. Most published broker targets and consensus views focus on around 12 months, not multiple years, and longer horizons carry higher uncertainty. Over five years, outcomes can vary with underwriting results, claims experience, investment income sensitivity to interest rates, regulation, and capital returns (dividends/buybacks). Treat any long-range estimate as a scenario rather than a prediction, and use multiple inputs rather than one number.

Is Allianz a good stock to buy?

Whether Allianz is 'good' to buy depends on your goals, time horizon and risk tolerance, and it isn’t something a general guide can decide for you. Recent context in this article includes record 2025 operating profit, a proposed dividend increase, and a new buyback, set against guidance that some interpreted as more measured near-term growth and a weaker technical setup. Consider both potential returns and the risk of losses.

Could Allianz stock go up or down?

Yes. Allianz’s share price can rise or fall for many reasons, including earnings updates, guidance changes, sector sentiment, interest-rate expectations, large claims events, and broader market volatility. As the article highlights, prices can also react sharply to how investors interpret management outlooks, even after strong reported results. For CFD traders, this two-way movement matters because CFDs allow speculation on both directions, but leverage can amplify losses as well as gains.

Should I invest in Allianz stock?

This guide can’t tell you whether you should invest. If you’re considering exposure to Allianz (via shares or derivatives), it may help to map what could drive returns (profitability, capital returns, rates) against what could drive downside (claims, underwriting pressure, market drawdowns, and rate shifts affecting investment income). If you’re unsure, consider seeking independent advice, and avoid risking money you can’t afford to lose.

Can I trade Allianz CFDs on Capital.com?

Yes, you can trade Allianz CFDs on Capital.com. Trading share CFDs lets you speculate on price movements without owning the underlying asset and to take long or short positions. However, contracts for difference (CFDs) are traded on margin, and leverage amplifies both profits and losses. You should ensure you understand how CFD trading works, assess your risk tolerance, and recognise that losses can occur quickly.