Barrick Gold forecast: Third-party price target

Barrick Gold (ABX) shares are approximately 16.68% up year-to-date, and 18.57% up year-on-year, based on its $26.44 CAD opening price on 23 April 2025.

Barrick Gold is traded on the Toronto Stock Exchange under the symbol ‘ABX’ and on the New York Stock Exchange under the ticker symbol ‘GOLD’. Headquartered in Toronto, Canada, Barrick Gold Corporation is the world’s second-largest gold producer (by annual production volume), after US-based Newmont, as of April 2025 – with mines in North and South America, Africa, and Asia. 

As the precious yellow-metal reaches new all-time-highs, how could Barrick Gold’s share price respond? Here’s the latest third-party forecasts, analysts’ targets, and predictions about what’s in store for the Canadian gold and copper producer in 2025 and beyond.

Barrick Gold stock predictions: Analyst sentiment and price targets

As of 24 April 2025, analysts’ Barrick Gold share price targets and sentiment reflected a mixed outlook for 2025 and beyond.

Market data provider Trading Economics forecasted volatility over the next 12 months, suggesting a $27.42 CAD Barrick Gold share price by the end of this quarter, which declined to $27.42 CAD by April 2026.

Meanwhile, TipRanks aggregated a $35.07 CAD share price Barrick Gold in a year, from 12 Wall Street analysts’ price targets, in a range of $30.42-$44.86 CAD. This represented a 32.48% potential upside, based on its most recent price of $26.47 CAD. Of the analysts, nine gave a ‘strong buy’, and the remaining three a ‘hold’ – resulting in a ‘strong buy’.

MarketBeat provided a ‘moderate buy’ based on 15 analysts, of whom five gave a ‘hold’ and seven a ‘buy’. The consensus price target was $33.89, with analysts’ forecasts ranging between $19 CAD and $45 CAD.

Now let’s take a look at individual analysts’ predictions and ratings:

• Stifel analyst Ralph Profiti maintained a ‘buy’ rating on 21 April 2025 – raising the price target to $37 CAD, from $34 CAD.

• Similarly, Stifel Nicolaus analyst Ingrid Rico maintained a ‘buy’ rating on 21 April 2025 – setting a $37 CAD price target.

• BMO Capital analyst Matthew Murphy gave a ‘market perform’ rating on 15 April 2025 – with a $30 CAD price target.

• National Bank maintained an ‘outperform’ rating on 2 April 2025 – raising the price target to $35 CAD, from $33 CAD.

For the gold price outlook, analysts expected the yellow metal might average lower in 12 months time. ING Bank forecasted on 15 April 2025 that gold could trade for approximately 0.82% lower on average in 2026, compared to 2025 – while Scotia Bank suggested a 6.67% decline over the same period. On the other hand, UBS predicted steady gold prices over the next 12 months, raising its price target to $3,500/oz for the foreseeable future.

Price predictions may be inaccurate or incorrect. Such forecasts are based on historical data and trends, which cannot take unforeseen market-moving events into account.

Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Barrick Gold stock forecast: 2030 and beyond

For Barrick Gold stock forecasts after 2030, algorithm-based services also provided mixed price targets for Barrick Gold stock, as of 24 April 2025.

Gov Capital indicated volatility for ABX shares, forecasting a $24.28 CAD Barrick Gold price in 12 months, declining to $20.19 CAD by 2030. 

While Coin Codex didn’t provide a forecast for Barrick Gold’s Toronto Stock Exchange listing ‘ABX’ – it did for Barrick’s New York Stock Exchange counterpart, ‘GOLD’. The price predictions service suggested Barrick Gold shares would average $16.37 in 2025, equivalent to approximately $22.68 CAD. In the long-term, Coin Codex expects price volatility – resulting in a potential $15.95 Barrick Gold price by 2030, equivalent to $22.10 CAD.

Similarly, Wallet Investor shared a bearish view, predicting that Barrick Gold’s ‘GOLD’ listing would close 2025 at $18.23, equivalent to $25.25 – and decline yearly, potentially closing April 2026 at $15.56 – which is approximately $21.55 CAD.

Remember – analyst and algorithmic forecasts can be wrong, and are determined by historical price data combined with technical and fundamental analysis. Past performance cannot take into account the effects of unforeseen events and, as a result, doesn’t guarantee future results.

Do your own research, build a trading strategy utilising risk management tools, and never invest more than you can afford to lose.

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What is Barrick Gold’s share price history?

Originally called ‘Barrick Petroleum Corporation’, Barrick Gold Corporation was founded in 1980 and established as a privately-held company. Barrick Gold listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange via IPO on 2 May 1983 under the ticker symbol ‘BRC’ – later changed to ‘ABX’ in 1983. Its dual listing occurred on the New York Stock Exchange in 1987, under the symbol ‘GOLD’.

2020 was a bullish year for gold miners. Uncertainties on markets and global economic growth brought by the Covid-19 pandemic drove investors to find safer assets such as safe-haven gold and gold miners' stocks. Gold prices surged in 2020, hitting $2,063 USD/ounce on 6 August 2020 – an all-time-high at the time. Barrick Gold shares rose too, reaching $41.09 CAD on 18 August 2020 – up 68.96% year-to-date.

Barrick Gold’s share price opened at $30.28 CAD on 4 January 2021, and fell by around 25.79%, closing the year at $22.47. By comparison, gold prices exhibited stability in 2021, opening at $1,827.50 USD/ounce in January, and closing December 4.43% lower, at $1,827.50. Increased operating costs, particularly all-in sustaining costs (AISC), were partly to blame as the mining sector grappled with rising labour, energy, and supply-chain-related expenses.

2024 onwards for Barrick Gold's share price

In 2024, amid rising geopolitical tensions and persistent inflation concerns, gold once again became attractive. Gold opened at $2,063.50 USD/ounce on 2 January 2024, and closed at $2,629.20 on 31 December. However, Barrick Gold's share price remained relatively unresponsive – falling from $23.97 CAD at the start of the year to $22.16 CAD by the end of December 2024.

Barrick Gold opened 2025 at $24.38 CAD and steadily climbed as gold prices reached multiple new all-time highs – including $3,500.05 on 23 April 2025. ABX shares hit a year-to-date high of $29.39 CAD on 16 April 2025, buoyed by bullish sentiment driven by stronger-than-expected demand for gold and positive market forecasts for precious metals. 

Past performance does not guarantee future results.

What influences Barrick Gold’s share price?

Barrick Gold’s (ABX) share price is influenced by factors such as gold and copper prices, monetary policy, operating efficiency, quarterly earnings, and geopolitical events.

Gold prices

Gold prices directly influence Barrick’s stock performance. When gold hit $3,500.05 USD/ounce on 23 April 2025, Barrick’s share price followed, peaking at $29.39 CAD on 16 April. Higher gold prices can lift revenue and margins for Barrick, potentially increasing its share price. Conversely, lower gold prices – such as the forecasted 6.67% average decline by Scotia Bank for 2026 – may reduce profitability.

Copper market conditions

Alongside gold, Barrick Gold produces copper. As a result, copper prices can influence Barrick’s stock market movements. Rising copper prices can boost Barrick’s revenues from mines like Lumwana in Zambia. Conversely, falling copper prices due to weakening global growth – highlighted by Morningstar analyst John Mills in April 2025 – could shrink Barrick’s profits, putting downward pressure on the share price.

Interest rates and monetary policy

Changes in interest rates affect gold’s attractiveness as an investment. Historically, lower interest rates boost gold’s appeal by reducing returns from bonds and savings. The U.S. Federal Reserve’s cautious monetary policy in early 2025 amid sustained inflation contributed to a rise in gold prices, supporting Barrick shares. However, if rates increase, investors could exit gold for yield-generating assets, lowering gold prices and subsequently Barrick’s shares.

However, past performance doesn’t guarantee future outcomes.

Production costs and efficiency

Operational efficiency and cost control significantly affect Barrick’s profits. High costs for energy, labour, or supply-chain logistics – as seen in 2021 – can negatively impact earnings, potentially influencing share price declines. Efficiency improvements, such as automated mining technology deployed at Barrick’s Cortez mine in Nevada in late 2024, could lower costs, boost margins, and positively influence ABX’s share price.

Financial performance

Barrick’s quarterly financial results directly impact share price movements. Positive surprises, such as Barrick’s Q4 2024 earnings exceeding analysts' EPS estimates, could lift share prices. Conversely, disappointing earnings or weak forward guidance can trigger share price declines. Barrick’s upcoming earnings report on 7 May 2025 (Q1 2025) will be closely monitored by investors for insights into future performance.

Geopolitical events

Geopolitical uncertainty influences investor sentiment towards gold-related stocks. Events causing economic instability, such as ongoing global trade tariff disputes and Middle East tensions, can drive investors to seek safe-haven assets like gold, boosting Barrick’s share price. Conversely, easing geopolitical tensions can prompt a shift to riskier assets, placing downward pressure on gold prices and Barrick shares.

Trade Barrick Gold via CFDs on Capital.com – learn more in our CFD trading guide.

Barrick Gold stock fundamental analysis: Gold & US tariffs

Shares of stocks in gold-related companies – including Barrick Gold – traded lower in April 2025 according to Benzinga editor Henry Khederian. On 23 April 2025, Khederian said: ‘Despite gold trading above $3,300 per ounce – up 23% year-to-date – Barrick is under pressure as investors rotate out of safe-haven plays Wednesday amid easing geopolitical risks and renewed risk-on sentiment.’

Morningstar analyst John Mills observed increasing gold and copper prices due to macroeconomic uncertainty surrounding trade tariffs. ‘The effect of tariffs on our mining coverage is likely to be mostly indirect rather than direct, via slower global growth. The likely effect on China’s exports is also a headwind for its economy and, in turn, commodity demand led by iron ore and copper,’ said Mills, in a 23 April 2025 note.

Earlier that month, on 2 April 2025, John Mills had announced an update to the Morningstar Barrick Gold and gold price forecasts. For gold, Mills raised his target to an average $3,170 USD/ounce, up from $2.810. For Barrick Gold (GOLD), he raised his fair value estimate to $23.50, equivalent to around $32.55 CAD.

Barrick Gold’s next financial earnings data, covering Q1 2025, is scheduled for a 7 May 2025 release.

How to trade gold: Shares vs commodities

There are two main avenues for trading gold via contracts for difference (CFDs):  trading CFDs on shares in gold-mining stocks, or trading CFDs on gold as a commodity. Each offers different characteristics and factors influencing their price movements.

*Find out more on our world stock market trading hours page.

Trading CFDs on shares involves speculating on the stock’s price movements without owning the underlying shares. Shares in gold-mining stocks, such as Barrick Gold (ABX), are influenced not only by changes in gold’s value, but also by company-specific factors such as quarterly earnings, management decisions, mining productivity, and operational costs. For instance, even if gold prices are rising, Barrick’s share price may decline if the company announces higher production costs or missed earnings expectations.

Trading CFDs on commodities allows speculation on gold price movements, without exposure to individual company risks. Commodities are influenced by broader macroeconomic factors such as interest rates, inflation, currency fluctuations (particularly the strength of the US dollar), and geopolitical events. For example, CFDs on gold – widely regarded as a ‘safe-haven’ asset – could increase in value amid global economic uncertainty or falling interest rates – independent of company-specific performance.

Learn more about gold trading

Barrick Gold shares trading strategies to consider

Barrick Gold shares trading strategies provide actionable insights and help traders to manage emotions in trading. A well-defined plan can support confidence and discipline in the financial markets, while each strategy can be tailored to your individual style and preferences.

Here are some broader categories to consider:

Position trading

Position trading focuses on major, sustained price moves.

Duration: Months to years

Aim: Capture gains from long-term market trends or fundamental shifts, such as sustained changes in gold prices or major macroeconomic trends influencing Barrick Gold shares.

Key indicators: 

• 200-day moving average (to identify long-term directional bias).

• RSI (to detect extended price levels over longer timeframes).

• Fibonacci retracements (to map out long-term support and resistance areas).

Trend trading

Trend trading focuses on clear, well-defined market trends.

Duration: Weeks to months

Aim: Capture gains from medium-term directional movements, such as sustained upward or downward momentum in Barrick Gold’s share price.

Technical indicators: 

• 50-day moving average (to identify medium-term trends).

• MACD (to assess momentum shifts within a trend).

• ADX (to measure trend strength).

Day trading

Day trading focuses on shorter-term opportunities, within a single trading session.

Duration: Minutes to hours, positions closed within one trading day.

Aim: Capture gains from short-term intraday volatility, such as immediate Barrick Gold share price reactions after company news, gold price fluctuations, or economic data releases.

Technical indicators: 

• VWAP (to guide intraday trend bias and entry points).

• Bollinger Bands® (to signal volatility and potential breakout zones).

• Intraday RSI (to signal potential reversals).

Swing trading

Swing trading focuses on medium-term price fluctuations within broader trends.

Duration: Days to weeks

Aim: Capture gains from short-term price swings within broader market trends, such as temporary corrections or retracements in Barrick Gold shares.

Technical indicators: 

• 20-day and 50-day moving averages (to identify trend shifts).

• Candlestick patterns (such as engulfing, doji).

• Fibonacci retracements (to identify near-term support and resistance zones).

Discover more trading strategies

Risks and rewards to shares trading

Maintain a keen awareness of the risks and rewards involved with trading. Here are some steps to optimise your outcomes, including how to protect your positions and improve your abilities.

• Build a trading strategy: develop a structured approach, tailored to your preferences, using technical and fundamental indicators to inform trading decisions

• Risk management tools: stop-loss* could help to mitigate potential losses, whilst take-profit can help safeguard gains – read our risk management guide.

• Boost your knowledge: stay abreast of the latest company news and broader market trends, including financial earnings and economic data releases.

• Stay aware of leverage: consider your margin level, and understand how it can amplify both gains and losses, increasing the risk of overexposure.

• Develop your skills: use virtual funds to practise trading strategies and techniques with a risk-free demo account.

*Stop-loss orders are not guaranteed and may be subject to slippage in certain market conditions.

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