Banco BPM stock forecast: Third-party price targets
Banco BPM is an Italian banking group listed on the Borsa Italiana, providing retail and corporate banking services and often followed for its share price movements and market drivers. Explore BAMI price action, third-party price targets, and technical analysis.
Banco BPM S.p.A. (BAMI) is trading around €12.46 on Capital.com’s platform in late European hours on 21 January 2026, within an intraday range of €12.23–€12.61 as of 4:19pm UTC. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
The move comes amid a broadly stable euro-area rates backdrop after the European Central Bank left its key policy rates unchanged at its December 2025 meeting, keeping the deposit facility at 2% and the main refinancing rate at 2.15% as it assesses medium-term inflation dynamics (European Central Bank, 18 December 2025). Recent sector commentary has also pointed to resilient profitability and solid capital buffers across Italian banks heading into 2026, even as draft Italian budget measures suggest moderately higher tax and regulatory costs for domestic lenders (Scope Ratings, 19 November 2025). Company-specific focus remains on Banco BPM’s 9M and Q3 2025 results, where management reported higher year-on-year net income and an improved cost-income profile (Banco BPM, 6 November 2025) ahead of the next scheduled financial disclosure in early February 2026 (MarketScreener, 20 January 2026).
Banco BPM stock forecast 2026–2030: Third-party price targets
As of 21 January 2026, third-party Banco BPM stock predictions cluster around a modest premium to recent spot levels, with most published 12-month targets expressed as euro-denominated price objectives for the Borsa Italiana listing. As with all forecasts, these figures are inherently uncertain and reflect the underlying assumptions of each provider, rather than guarantees of future performance.
MarketScreener (consensus snapshot)
MarketScreener reports that the consensus BAMI stock forecast from 15 covering analysts implies an average 12-month target price of about €13.20, with individual targets ranging between roughly €11.60 and €16. The service notes an 'outperform' mean recommendation, with analysts referencing solid capital metrics and earnings resilience amid a still-supportive Italian banking backdrop (MarketScreener, 20 January 2026).
Investing.com (aggregated brokers)
Investing.com’s consensus page indicates that 16 analysts see a 12-month average target for Banco BPM shares around €13.20, framed by a low estimate of €11.60 and a high of €16.10. The platform attributes this range to differing views on net interest income trends and fee generation potential as Italian banks adjust to a flatter euro-area rate path (Investing.com, 21 January 2026).
Simply Wall St (fair value model)
Simply Wall St states that its model-derived fair value estimate for Banco BPM is about €13.21 per share, with referenced analyst price targets concentrated in a band of roughly €12.70 to €13.28 over the next year. The research platform notes that these clustered targets come amid modest upgrades to earnings assumptions, as analysts balance fee income growth against a normalising interest-rate environment (Simply Wall St, 7 January 2026).
Fintel (ADR/OTC line, converted view)
Fintel’s forecast page for Banco BPM’s over-the-counter line shows an average one-year price target of about $15.37, with a low of $13.26 and a high of $19.51 for that US-traded instrument. The service explains that these dollar-based targets aggregate multiple analyst models and are conditioned on projected revenue growth and margin trends through 2026, rather than reflecting any single house view (Fintel, 21 January 2026).
TipRanks (broker compilation)
TipRanks’ forecast summary for Banco BPM reports a consensus 12-month target around €12.90, with individual forecasts spanning €11.70–€14. The platform cites recent rating and target changes from major European brokers as they reassess the bank’s profitability profile following corporate actions and guidance updates (TipRanks, 21 January 2026).
Predictions and third-party forecasts are inherently uncertain, as they cannot fully account for unexpected market developments. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
BAMI stock price: Technical overview
The BAMI stock price is trading near €12.46 as of 4:19pm UTC on 21 January 2026, sitting just below a tight moving-average cluster, with the 20-, 50-, 100- and 200-day SMAs around €12.8, €12.7, €12.5 and €11.4 respectively. The 14-day RSI near 44 sits in the lower-neutral band, while an ADX reading around 15 points to a relatively weak trend backdrop rather than a strong directional phase.
On the topside, the first reference is the classic R1 pivot near €13.41, with R2 toward €13.80 coming into view only on a sustained daily close above that initial pivot zone. On pullbacks, the classic pivot around €12.70 serves as initial support, followed by the 100-day SMA near €12.54 as the next notable level. A loss of that area would open room toward the S1 region around €12.31 (TradingView, 21 January 2026).
This technical analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.
Banco BPM share price history (2024–2026)
BAMI’s stock price has risen materially over the past two years, moving from around €4.87 at the close on 23 January 2024 to about €7.78 by 2 January 2025, and then to roughly €12.50 on 21 January 2026. This equates to a gain of around 59% between early 2024 and early 2025, followed by a further increase of about 61% from the start of 2025 to late January 2026, leaving the two-year change at just over 150% on a closing-price basis.
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
Banco BPM (BAMI): Capital.com analyst view
Banco BPM’s share price has recorded a strong run over the past two years, climbing from below €5 in early 2024 to trade around the low €12s by late January 2026 on Capital.com’s platform. This move has coincided with improving fundamentals and a more constructive backdrop for Italian banks overall. At the same time, the stock has experienced periods of consolidation and pullbacks, highlighting that bank equities can remain sensitive to shifts in interest-rate expectations, funding conditions and broader risk sentiment, which can erode prior gains.
Recent results show Banco BPM reporting higher profitability and capital strength, with the group generating about €1.66bn of net income in the first nine months of 2025, equivalent to roughly 85% of its full-year net income guidance of around €1.95bn, alongside a CET1 capital ratio of about 13.5%. Those same drivers, including stronger fee income and higher lending volumes, could also work in the opposite direction if the economic cycle slows, credit quality weakens or regulatory and funding costs rise, potentially pressuring returns even if the business model remains diversified.
Capital.com’s client sentiment for Banco BPM CFDs
As of 21 January 2026, Capital.com client positioning in Banco BPM CFDs shows 90.9% buyers versus 9.1% sellers, indicating a heavy-buy stance that puts buyers ahead by about 81.8 percentage points and leaves sentiment one-sided toward long positions. This snapshot reflects open positions on Capital.com and can change over time as traders adjust their exposure.
Summary – Banco BPM 2026
- Banco BPM (BAMI) trades around €12.46 as of 4:19pm UTC on 21 January 2026, within an intraday range of roughly €12.23 to €12.61 on Capital.com’s platform.
- Over the past two years, the share price has risen from about €4.87 (23 January 2024) to roughly €7.78 (2 January 2025), and then to around €12.50 by 21 January 2026, implying a gain of just over 150% on a closing-price basis.
- Technical indicators show the price trading just below a cluster of medium-term daily moving averages near €12.5–€12.8, with a 14-day RSI around 44 and ADX near 15, signalling a relatively weak trend environment.
- Recent financial updates highlight higher profitability and solid capital ratios into 2025, while rating agencies and sector studies describe a broadly stable outlook for Italian banks, alongside sensitivity to economic growth, credit quality and regulation.
- Analyst 12-month targets for Banco BPM generally sit in the low €13 area on average, framed by a wider range from the low €11s to the mid €16s depending on the provider and methodology.
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
FAQ
Who owns most Banco BPM stock?
Banco BPM has a widely distributed shareholder base, typical of a large, listed European bank. Its ownership structure includes institutional investors such as asset managers and pension funds, alongside retail shareholders. As of the most recent public disclosures, no single shareholder holds a controlling stake. Ownership levels can change over time due to market activity, regulatory filings and portfolio adjustments by large investors, so published figures should be treated as point-in-time snapshots rather than fixed positions.
What is the five-year Banco BPM share price forecast?
There is no single, agreed five-year BAMI stock forecast. Most third-party analysts focus on shorter horizons, typically around 12 months, due to the greater uncertainty associated with longer timeframes. Longer-term outcomes are likely to depend on factors such as interest-rate conditions, credit quality, regulation and the broader Italian and euro-area economic environment. Any extended projections are highly uncertain and based on assumptions that may change.
Is Banco BPM a good stock to buy?
Whether Banco BPM is considered attractive depends on individual objectives, risk tolerance and time horizon. Analysts have highlighted factors such as recent profitability, capital strength and the operating environment for Italian banks, while also noting exposure to economic cycles, regulatory changes and interest-rate shifts. As with any bank equity, potential opportunities are balanced by risks, and assessments can vary widely between market participants and across different market conditions.
Could Banco BPM stock go up or down?
Banco BPM’s share price can move in either direction and is influenced by a range of factors, including company earnings, interest-rate expectations, credit conditions and broader market sentiment. Bank shares can also react to regulatory developments and macroeconomic data. While past price movements provide historical context, they do not indicate future performance, and price volatility remains a key consideration for traders and investors.
Should I invest in Banco BPM stock?
This is a personal decision that depends on your financial situation, objectives and understanding of the risks involved. Banco BPM shares, like all equities, can fluctuate in value and may not be suitable for every investor. Information on forecasts, fundamentals and technical indicators can help inform research, but it does not replace independent analysis or professional advice where appropriate. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
Can I trade Banco BPM CFDs on Capital.com?
Yes, you can trade Banco BPM CFDs on Capital.com. Trading share CFDs lets you speculate on price movements without owning the underlying asset and to take long or short positions. However, contracts for difference (CFDs) are traded on margin, and leverage amplifies both profits and losses. You should ensure you understand how CFD trading works, assess your risk tolerance, and recognise that losses can occur quickly.