US natgas futures fall 3% as temperatures moderate, oil prices ease
By Vedika Thorat
Sept 21 (Reuters) - US natural gas futures fell more than 3% on Monday as forecasts for milder temperatures and lower oil prices weighed on the market after weeks of weather-driven strength.
Front-month gas futures for October delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange settled down by 7.6 cents, or 2.6%, at $2.836 per million British thermal units.
"The weather has moderated. And typically, for natural gas, weather plays a key role, especially short-term. And so with the moderating weather, moderating temperatures, the market is moving off a little bit here," said Thomas Saal, senior vice president at StoneX.
Meteorologists forecast weather would remain mostly warmer than normal through October 4.
Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the US Lower 48 states rose to 113.1 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in September, up from a monthly record high of 112.2 bcfd in August.
LSEG said average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, is expected to slide from 107.6 bcfd this week to 104.8 bcfd next week.
Analysts predicted the amount of gas in storage slid to 2.9% above normal during the week ended September 18, down from 3.7% above normal in the previous week, according to early estimates ahead of Thursday's weekly federal inventory report. EIA/GAS NGAS/POLL
Meanwhile, oil prices slid towards the psychological threshold of $100 a barrel and to their lowest in 11 days as investors hoped for diplomatic progress on the Iran war due to this week's United Nations meeting, and eyed a partial recovery in shipments from Saudi Arabia. O/R
Average gas flows to the nine big US LNG export plants rose to 18.1 bcfd so far in September, up from 17.2 bcfd in August, but remained short of the monthly record high of 18.8 bcfd in April.
Dutch and British gas prices fell, also on hopes of progress on the Iran conflict, and with temperatures expected to be unseasonally mild next week.NG/EU
Week ended Sep 18 Forecast | Week ended Sep 11 Actual | Year ago Sep 18 | Five-year average (2021-2025) Sep 18 | ||
US weekly natgas storage change (bcf): | +51 | +44 | +77 | +76 | |
US total natgas in storage (bcf): | 3,349 | 3,298 | 3,497 | 3,256 | |
US total storage versus 5-year average | +2.9% | +3.7% | |||
Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) | Current Day | Prior Day | This Month Last Year | Prior Year Average 2025 | Five-Year Average (2021-2025) |
Henry Hub | 2.91 | 2.85 | 3.01 | 3.62 | 3.79 |
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) | 74.32 | 26.52 | 11.13 | 11.94 | 18.51 |
Japan-Korea Marker (JKM) | 25.64 | 26.75 | 11.32 | 12.24 | 18.12 |
LSEG US Global Forecast System (GFS) Heating, Cooling and Total Degree Days | |||||
Total Two-Week Forecast | Current Day | Prior Day | Prior Year | 10-Year Norm | 30-Year Norm |
US GFS Heating Degree Days (HDD) | 47 | 35 | 11 | 43 | 55 |
US GFS Cooling Degree Days (CDD) | 106 | 119 | 102 | 86 | 71 |
US GFS Total Degree Days (TDD) | 153 | 154 | 113 | 129 | 126 |
LSEG US Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts | |||||
Prior Week | Current Week | Next Week | This Week Last Year | Five-Year (2021-2025) Average for Month | |
US Supply (bcfd) | |||||
US Lower 48 Dry Production | 112.9 | 112.5 | 112.9 | 107.2 | 101.5 |
US Imports from Canada | 6.6 | 7.0 | 7.5 | N/A | 7.7 |
US LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Total US Supply | 119.5 | 119.5 | 120.3 | N/A | 109.2 |
US Demand (bcfd) | |||||
US Exports to Canada | 2.4 | 2.6 | 2.5 | N/A | 2.3 |
US Exports to Mexico | 7.4 | 7.5 | 7.7 | N/A | 6.8 |
US LNG Export Feedgas | 18.1 | 17.5 | 17.7 | 16.0 | 12.6 |
US Commercial | 5.0 | 5.3 | 5.4 | 4.7 | 5.0 |
US Residential | 3.8 | 4.3 | 4.5 | 4.0 | 3.9 |
US Power Plant | 43.3 | 40.6 | 37.1 | 40.9 | 38.4 |
US Industrial | 21.9 | 22.1 | 22.1 | 22.0 | 22.1 |
US Plant Fuel | 5.6 | 5.6 | 5.6 | 5.6 | 5.3 |
US Pipe Distribution | 2.2 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 2.9 |
US Vehicle Fuel | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 |
Total US Consumption | 81.9 | 80.1 | 76.9 | 79.5 | 77.8 |
Total US Demand | 109.8 | 107.6 | 104.8 | N/A | 99.5 |
N/A = Not Available | |||||
US Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (fiscal year ending September 30) | 2026 Current Day % of Normal Forecast | 2026 Prior Day % of Normal Forecast | 2025 % of Normal Actual | 2024 % of Normal Actual | 2023 % of Normal Actual |
Apr-Sep | 83 | 83 | 76 | 74 | 83 |
Jan-Jul | 90 | 90 | 78 | 76 | 77 |
Oct-Sep | 93 | 93 | 80 | 77 | 76 |
US weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA | |||||
Week ended Sep 25 | Week ended Sep 18 | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | |
Wind | 8 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 10 |
Solar | 8 | 8 | 6 | 5 | 4 |
Hydro | 4 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 6 |
Other | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
Petroleum | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Natural Gas | 43 | 43 | 40 | 42 | 41 |
Coal | 17 | 17 | 18 | 16 | 17 |
Nuclear | 18 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 19 |
SNL US Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu) | |||||
Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | This Month Last Year | Prior Year Average 2025 | Five-Year Average (2021-2025) |
Henry Hub | 2.97 | 2.90 | 2.97 | 3.52 | 3.72 |
Transco Z6 New York | 1.26 | 1.75 | 1.85 | 3.53 | 3.56 |
PG&E Citygate | 3.44 | 3.60 | 3.74 | 3.42 | 5.47 |
Eastern Gas (formerly Dominion South) | 1.30 | 1.64 | 1.75 | 2.79 | 2.96 |
Chicago Citygate | 2.63 | 2.72 | 2.81 | 3.23 | 3.60 |
Algonquin Citygate | 1.50 | 1.50 | 2.18 | 6.08 | 5.04 |
SoCal Citygate | 1.50 | 3.65 | 3.11 | 3.60 | 5.71 |
Waha Hub | 1.78 | 1.93 | -0.06 | 1.03 | 2.88 |
AECO | 1.58 | 1.17 | 0.22 | 1.13 | 2.13 |
Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) US Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour) | |||||
Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | This Month Last Year | Prior Year Average 2025 | Five-Year Average (2021-2025) |
New England | 40.29 | 55.83 | 38.84 | 77.12 | 61.67 |
PJM West | 74.69 | 229.74 | 51.24 | 60.23 | 54.47 |
Mid-Columbia (Mid C) | 54.11 | 51.47 | 56.16 | 44.81 | 68.96 |
Palo Verde | 37.92 | 38.50 | 38.04 | 34.82 | 59.94 |
South Path-15 (SP-15) | 33.48 | 34.01 | 36.05 | 28.44 | 53.02 |