US natgas drops as oil prices weigh; cold weather view limits losses
By Vedika Thorat
Nov 2 (Reuters) - US natural gas futures fell on Monday, tracking weakness in oil markets as hopes for progress in US-Iran talks weighed on energy prices, although expectations for colder weather this month limited losses.
Front-month gas futures for December delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange settled 1.4% lower, at $2.856 per million British thermal units. The contract rose over 2% earlier in the session.
Oil prices fell more than 7% as talks between Iranian and Qatari officials lifted hopes for an end to the US-Israeli war with Iran and stabilization of Middle East crude supply.O/R
"The short-term fundamentals are still pretty bearish. Production is high, the weather's normal. And so far, the El Nino has been dominant. And that's one of the reasons why natural gas prices have been down," Phil Flynn, senior analyst at Price Futures Group, said.
An El Nino-driven mild winter can suppress US heating demand, reducing natural gas consumption and storage drawdowns.
Although, growing speculation about a potential polar vortex disruption this month has raised expectations of colder weather in the US, supporting natural gas prices.
A polar vortex is a large area of cold air that normally circulates around the Arctic. When it weakens or breaks down, cold air can spill south into North America, boosting demand for natural gas-powered heat.
However, "the latest forecasts have continued warming the period that follows, particularly toward mid-November. Temperatures can fall from their current levels and still remain above normal, leaving less heating demand than the calendar alone would suggest," Gelber & Associates said in a note.
Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the US Lower 48 states has slid to 111.0 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in November from record highs of 113.4 bcfd in October.
With colder weather coming, LSEG said average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would rise from 109.1 bcfd this week to 116.7 bcfd next week.
Average gas flows to the nine major US LNG export plants are 18.5 bcfd so far in November, the same as 18.5 bcfd in October.
That figure is below the monthly record high of 18.8 bcfd in April.
Benchmark Dutch and British wholesale gas prices fell on Monday as forecasts pointed to the current cold spell easing next week, potentially limiting storage withdrawals, while ongoing Middle East diplomacy also weighed on prices. NG/EU
Week ended Oct 30 Forecast | Week ended Oct 23 Actual | Year ago Oct 30 | Five-year average (2021-2025) Oct 30 | ||
US weekly natgas storage change (bcf): | +74 | +80 | +39 | +61 | |
US total natgas in storage (bcf): | 3,798 | 3,724 | 3,910 | 3,747 | |
US total storage versus 5-year average | +1.4% | +1.0% | |||
Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) | Current Day | Prior Day | This Month Last Year | Prior Year Average 2025 | Five-Year Average (2021-2025) |
Henry Hub | 2.94 | 2.89 | 3.35 | 3.62 | 3.79 |
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) | 34.51 | 34.18 | 10.88 | 11.94 | 18.51 |
Japan-Korea Marker (JKM) | 32.84 | 32.03 | 11.11 | 12.24 | 18.12 |
LSEG US Global Forecast System (GFS) Heating, Cooling and Total Degree Days | |||||
Total Two-Week Forecast | Current Day | Prior Day | Prior Year | 10-Year Norm | 30-Year Norm |
US GFS Heating Degree Days (HDD) | 171 | 155 | 183 | 209 | 207 |
US GFS Cooling Degree Days (CDD) | 20 | 21 | 15 | 16 | 13 |
US GFS Total Degree Days (TDD) | 191 | 176 | 198 | 225 | 220 |
LSEG US Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts, and US Energy Information Administration (EIA) Monthly and Annual Pipeline Imports and Exports | |||||
Prior Week | Current Week | Next Week | This Month Last Year | Prior Year Average 2025 | |
US Supply (bcfd) | |||||
US Lower 48 Dry Production | 114.8 | 113.6 | 114.8 | 106.5 | 106.8 |
US Imports from Canada | 6.9 | 7.6 | 8.0 | 7.5 | 8.6 |
US LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Total US Supply | 121.7 | 121.2 | 122.8 | 114.0 | 115.4 |
US Demand (bcfd) | |||||
US Exports to Canada | 2.5 | 2.7 | 2.8 | 2.5 | 2.8 |
US Exports to Mexico | 6.7 | 6.4 | 6.8 | 6.5 | 6.6 |
US LNG Export Feedgas | 19.1 | 18.8 | 18.8 | 16.6 | 16.0 |
US Commercial | 7.6 | 8.0 | 10.3 | 6.7 | 9.4 |
US Residential | 7.8 | 8.5 | 13.2 | 7.5 | 13.4 |
US Power Plant | 32.3 | 33.9 | 32.9 | 33.4 | 36.0 |
US Industrial | 22.7 | 22.8 | 23.7 | 22.7 | 23.5 |
US Plant Fuel | 5.7 | 5.6 | 5.7 | 5.6 | 5.6 |
US Pipe Distribution | 2.1 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 3.0 | 3.5 |
US Vehicle Fuel | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 |
Total US Consumption | 78.4 | 81.1 | 88.2 | 79.1 | 91.6 |
Total US Demand | 106.6 | 109.1 | 116.7 | 104.7 | 117.0 |
N/A = Not Available | |||||
US Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (fiscal year ending September 30) | 2027 Current Day % of Normal Forecast | 2027 Prior Day % of Normal Forecast | 2026 % of Normal Actual | 2025 % of Normal Actual | 2024 % of Normal Actual |
Apr-Sep | 86 | 87 | 83 | 76 | 74 |
Jan-Jul | 81 | 83 | 90 | 78 | 76 |
Oct-Sep | 81 | 84 | 93 | 80 | 77 |
US weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA | |||||
Week ended Nov 06 | Week ended Oct 30 | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | |
Wind | 7 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 10 |
Solar | 5 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 4 |
Hydro | 4 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 6 |
Other | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
Petroleum | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Natural Gas | 46 | 41 | 40 | 42 | 41 |
Coal | 17 | 15 | 18 | 16 | 17 |
Nuclear | 20 | 19 | 18 | 19 | 19 |
SNL US Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu) | |||||
Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | This Month Last Year | Prior Year Average 2025 | Five-Year Average (2021-2025) |
Henry Hub | 2.42 | 2.68 | 3.19 | 3.52 | 3.72 |
Transco Z6 New York | 1.00 | 1.45 | 2.26 | 3.53 | 3.56 |
PG&E Citygate | 3.41 | 3.62 | 3.58 | 3.42 | 5.47 |
Enbridge South (formerly Dominion South) | 1.05 | 1.24 | 2.12 | 2.79 | 2.96 |
Chicago Citygate | 2.01 | 2.35 | 2.92 | 3.23 | 3.60 |
Algonquin Citygate | 1.35 | 1.50 | 2.51 | 6.08 | 5.04 |
SoCal Citygate | 3.46 | 3.64 | 3.22 | 3.60 | 5.71 |
Waha Hub | 1.46 | 1.45 | 0.00 | 1.03 | 2.88 |
AECO | 1.67 | 1.33 | 0.95 | 1.13 | 2.13 |
Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) US Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour) | |||||
Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | This Month Last Year | Prior Year Average 2025 | Five-Year Average (2021-2025) |
New England | 37.91 | 37.91 | 44.36 | 77.12 | 61.67 |
PJM West | 54.83 | 54.83 | 57.52 | 60.23 | 54.47 |
Mid-Columbia (Mid C) | 61.49 | 74.47 | 45.49 | 44.81 | 68.96 |
Palo Verde | 29.56 | 37.68 | 26.78 | 34.82 | 59.94 |
South Path-15 (SP-15) | 32.21 | 48.53 | 27.16 | 28.44 | 53.02 |