Morgan Stanley Raises TTF Gas Forecast To 90 EUR/Mwh In Mild Winter Base Case

Oct 15 (Reuters) - MORGAN STANLEY:

• RAISES TTF GAS FORECAST TO €90/MWH IN MILD WINTER BASE CASE, WITH RISKS STILL SKEWED TO THE UPSIDE

• CONTINUES TO MODEL MILD WINTER BASE CASE WITH DEMAND REDUCTION OF 6% YOY

• SAYS TTF HAS HIT NEW YTD HIGH OF €87/MWH AS LNG COMPETITION HEATS UP AGAIN

• SAYS TTF COULD REACH €135/MWH ON SOME COMBINATION OF A PROLONGED QATAR OUTAGE, COLDER WEATHER OR OTHER LNG DISRUPTIONS

• SAYS GULF LNG RECOVERY LOOKS FRAGILE, DRIVEN BY A DRAWDOWN OF LNG ON THE WATER, RATHER THAN HIGHER OUTPUT FROM RAS LAFFAN

• SAYS EUROPEAN PERIMETER WILL STILL ENTER WINTER WITH STORAGE AT RECORD LOW OF 74%