LIVE MARKETS-What to think about in Q4

Welcome to the home for real-time coverage of markets brought to you by Reuters reporters. You can share your thoughts with us at markets.research@thomsonreuters.com

WHAT TO THINK ABOUT IN Q4

Q3 has come and gone, and there's been no shortage of market-moving news, between conflicts, AI, bond market troubles and more. Q4 doesn't look any less busy, with many of these themes continuing.

"Geopolitics is on a knife edge between efforts to bring peace and a dynamic leading towards more, and more widespread war," Michael Every, global strategist at Rabobank, said.

The Strait of Hormuz and wider Middle East of course come to mind, but Every also flagged for example concerns about conflict in Ethiopia possibly spilling over into the Horn of Africa and worries about the Russia-Ukraine war escalating "into outright provocations vs. Europe and NATO."

Somewhat more localised, Every points out that the US midterms are looming, and nods to a broader trend towards left- and right-wing populism.

All of that doesn't sound like good news for especially bond markets, but the possible fallout for growth and rate expectations may well also reach equities.

Then there's AI, enthusiasm for which has been broadly boosting equities (and adding volatility). Every flags for example growing safety discussions that have seemingly delayed the OpenAI IPO but also comments from the British AI minister that highlighted regulatory hurdles.

Yet another reason to closely watch AI and AI-exposed stocks throughout the supply chain.

Finally, Every notes that trade tensions between the EU and China could ratchet up in Q4.

Sectors from autos to spirits and some foods have come under pressure during trade tensions before - so might be worth keeping an eye on again.

(Sophie Kiderlin)

EARLIER ON LIVE MARKETS:

STOCKS POISED FOR NEXT LEG HIGHER... IF OIL DROPS CLICK HERE

STOXX SET FOR MONTHLY FALL, BUT A STEADY QUARTER CLICK HERE

BEFORE THE BELL: SET TO END THE MONTH ON A HIGH NOTE CLICK HERE

A CRUEL QUARTER FOR BONDS CLICK HERE