LIVE MARKETS-'Greedflation' is back as US corporate prices jump
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'GREEDFLATION' IS BACK AS US CORPORATE PRICES JUMP
US companies are raising prices even though their costs aren't going up. That's a sign "greedflation" has returned and could push the Federal Reserve to tighten harder than markets expect, according to Societe Generale strategist Albert Edwards.
The value-added output price deflator for non-financial corporations rose 4.3% year-on-year in the second quarter, more than double the roughly 2% pace of the previous two years, Labor Department data showed.
"There are no cost pressures to justify this jump," Edwards said, noting that slower growth in unit labor costs is fully offsetting higher costs elsewhere, including oil.
The gauge gets less attention than consumer prices or the PCE index, but it tracks, and can lead, core inflation. If the pickup spreads to those measures, the Fed would likely have to speed up what is expected to be one of the shallowest tightening cycles in history, he said.
Oil is adding to the pressure. Spot crude is trading more than $30 a barrel above the nearest futures contract, a record, and companies appear to be passing that straight on to customers. Refining margins are also at all-time highs.
Higher rates, meanwhile, may do less than usual to slow the economy because companies' net interest payments are still low. That means that the Fed would have to raise rates further than it would otherwise to get the same effect.
(Karen Brettell)
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