INSTANT VIEW-India's August retail inflation at 4.82% on-year

Sept 14 (Reuters) - India's annual retail inflation INCPIY=ECI jumped to 4.82% in August from 4.45% in July, driven by higher food and fuel prices and strengthening a case for an interest rate hike in October.

Here is what experts are saying:

ALEXANDRA HERMANN PRASAD, LEAD ECONOMIST, OXFORD ECONOMICS, LONDON

"Inflation resumed its upward trend in August as we expected. Although not the main driver, there were increasing signs that second round pressures are building."

"Price pressures will likely continue rising in the coming months, moving above 5% and breaching the Reserve Bank of India's 6% upper tolerance limit in Q4. Food-price pressures are set to continue intensifying, favourable base effects from last September's GST reform will fade and companies are increasingly passing higher input costs on to consumers."

RADHIKA RAO, SENIOR ECONOMIST, DBS BANK, SINGAPORE

"Inflation rose to 4.8% YoY, slightly below our forecast at 4.9%. Food inflation continues to rise, driven by pulses, sugar, and dairy etc, while vegetables rose by a slower pace."

"Energy prices have remained volatile, raising input cost pressures that could gradually filter through to consumers, even as retail fuel prices have been kept unchanged since May.

A gradual broadening of price pressures is likely to keep inflation readings above 5% in the second half of the fiscal year, underscoring the need for a tighter policy bias. The goods trade deficit is, meanwhile, likely to stay wide at $30 billion as an improvement in exports is accompanied by a further widening in the energy import bill."

GAURA SENGUPTA, CHIEF ECONOMIST, IDFC BANK, MUMBAI

"The rise is led by food inflation, which has risen to 6%, past increases in retail fuel prices and adverse base effects.

The rise in food inflation is spread across items reflecting impact of weak monsoon.

One positive is that core-core inflation, which captures demand side inflation, remains benign. FY27 CPI inflation is expected to average at 5%, led by supply-side factors such as food and fuel."