From Canada to Nigeria, a race for more 'defence sovereignty' is on
By Peter Apps
Oct 23 (Reuters) - By the time Eliot Pence stood down as head of international operations for US autonomous weapons powerhouse Anduril in 2022, the Canadian-born executive had spent most of his working life in a US-dominated defence-tech sector he says he and his countrymen rarely questioned.
In the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic and with geopolitical tensions rising, increasing volumes of investment were flowing to a new generation of weapons such as those that company built. Insofar as most US allies thought about defence technology, the priority was its ability to interface directly with a fast-evolving US military.
Fast forward four years, and that priority remains. But nations are pushing harder and faster than at any point in recent history to regain more sovereignty in their systems.
What that shift means varies widely from country to country, but it is developing some increasingly universal themes, including reducing dependence on the United States and a search for supply chains less controlled by China.
Pence - who last year founded Dominion Dynamics, a Canadian defence technology company working to establish sovereign capability in aerospace, autonomy and command-and-control - is on the advisory committee on Canada-US economic relations.
Canada's previous strategy of sourcing more than 70% of its defence technology requirements from United States, now faced the new reality of a US administration that was "sometimes antagonistic, to put it mildly", he said.
"Canada is now effectively needing to rebuild its defence industry from scratch," he told this columnist on the sidelines of this month's London Resilience Conference showcasing new defence technology alongside venture capital.
VARYING THREATS, VARYING RESPONSES
Many US allies have been alarmed by limitations placed on the SpaceX-run Starshield system relied on by Ukraine for drone operations and President Donald Trump's plan to buy Russian diesel and decision to waive new Russia sanctions. Trump says he is acting in the interests of the United States.
Meanwhile Norwegian media reported this month that Chinese-built electric vehicles taking part in Norwegian military drills were found to have silently filmed participants, although it was not clear if that was deliberately triggered.
Multiple nations are racing to source non-China supplies of batteries, components and essential minerals and chemicals, with Beijing tightening controls of multiple rare earths last year in its trade dispute with Washington. Beijing has choked off Japan's supplies of yttrium– used in jet engines, semiconductors and defence systems - since a diplomatic row between them last year.
While some nations are keeping quiet about any policy and industrial shifts to avoid antagonising Washington or Beijing, others are speaking out. Canada's Prime Minister Mark Carney has been one of the loudest critics of Trump, calling for "middle powers" to do much more to chart their own global course.
Dominion Dynamics said it had raised C$169 million ($118 million), mainly from Canadian investors, by June. Its early products include the Echo sonar surveillance system that it says will help Canada and close allies – particularly other Arctic nations – keep track of their increasingly contested waters.
Like others in Canada, Pence was keen to stress that this did not mean an end to Canada’s long-running direct collaboration with the US Northern Command. But it meant those in charge in Ottawa would also have sovereign systems on which they could rely.
Last month, Carney told the New York Times military planners had now drawn up at least limited plans for what he called the "extreme tail risk" – a financial phrase referring to an unlikely but plausible scenario – for the defence of Canada from hypothetical future American attack.
Since returning to office at the start of 2025, Trump has on several occasions questioned Canada's right to exist and suggested it might become the 51st US state, although he has generally ruled out using military force.
Even more overt threats against Denmark suggesting Washington might seize Greenland, though, have also unnerved US allies.
What nations like the Baltics, Nordics and Poland now fear is that as in Ukraine, future US administrations might cut access to US systems and weapons stocks to push governments towards US-brokered deals costing territory or independence.
MILITARY INDUSTRY AND POWER ARE SHIFTING FAST
Established military players such as France, Britain, Germany and South Korea have tended to prioritise "big ticket" items such as ships, tanks and submarines that bring significant numbers of jobs in often politically contested regions.
Increasingly, however, officials and a new generation of defence firms are looking to what has happened in Ukraine and well beyond and have concluded that the focus needs to shift to cheap, mass producible systems for attack and surveillance.
The result, some defence insiders say, may be a swift and dramatic shift in the global shape of both military industry and power, including in unexpected places.
One of the key sponsors of the Resilience Conference was Nigeria's Terra Industries, now with some 200 staff working in Abuja to deliver a range of drones including the Archer with a 1,000-km (620-mile) range and the Kallon solar-powered sentry tower providing 24-hour AI surveillance.
Founder Nathan Nwachuku quit university in the US to found an educational technology startup first, but changed tack after considering the threat to the international order posed by Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
SOVEREIGN COMMAND-AND-CONTROL FACES CHALLENGES
What African nations like Nigeria faced was not the risk of traditional invasion, he said, but more subtle yet potentially lethal intervention by militant groups, state-armed gangs, financial interests and major powers including Moscow and Beijing.
Critical to stopping that, he said, was using cheap technology to secure borders and essential infrastructure.
"Our central intelligence platform carries out large-scale command and control, autonomous mission planning and threat intelligence across infrastructure," Nwachuku said, adding that at present no Chinese or US company could offer African firms or governments anything like that.
Crucially, while the company is Nigerian, when it works with other nations – so far primarily Ghana – it bases its servers in that country to maintain effective national sovereign control.
In the background, the US military and its global command structures are also often quietly supportive of smaller nations building up capability separate to that Washington provides.
Sometimes, such joint working can cement broader relations between specific allies. Britain is working with Norway on warships as is Japan with Australia while Canberra is also building the Ghost Shark underwater drone with US-based Anduril and aerial Ghost Bat with Boeing.
Analysts and diplomats say the role of the fledgling UK-Italy-Japan Future Global Combat Air Program in Japan's defence relationship with Europe is seen in Tokyo as being as critical as the aeroplane itself, while fighting in Ukraine continues to draw in more and more defence contractors of almost every size and type keen for lessons to take home.
But such partnerships are often fraught. Politico this week reported Germany pulling back from its planned Ghost Bat purchase, while a Franco-German fighter project collapsed in June.
At another summit in London this month, the senior British officer building an Allied Underwater Battlespace Mission Network – bringing together multiple systems and sensors from the US, Australia and much of Europe – complained nationally driven experimentation and duplication risked wasting resources.
Russian and Chinese commentators have this week suggested Washington's latest schism with Ukraine may be permanent and point to future breaks with other allies. Other nations will surely need to learn to do much more on their own – but it will take making those efforts work seamlessly together to keep already watching potential enemies deterred.