Cochilco cuts Chilean copper forecast for 2026, 2027
Oct 30 (Reuters) - Chile's copper commission Cochilco on Friday sharply lowered its forecast for Chilean copper production this year and forecast a milder-than-expected recovery for 2027.
The entity expects 2026 output to fall 8.4% versus a prior estimate of a 2.6% decline, before recovering next year with a 3% rise, slimmer than previously anticipated.
Cochilco estimates that Chilean copper production in 2026 will fall 8.4% to 4.94 million metric tons, versus an August estimate of 5.27 million tons
It noted that BHP's BHP.AX Escondida and Spence, along with state-run Codelco mines, account for more than 77% of Chile's net decline
Between January and September, Chile produced 3.63 million tons, down 8.5% from the same period in 2025
The country needs to produce close to 434,000 tons per month in the fourth quarter to reach the full-year estimate, Cochilco said
That amount would be 7.6% above average of what was produced this year through September
In 2027, Cochilco expects production to recover 3% to 5.08 million tons, versus the August estimate of 5.55 million tons
Lower ore grades, maintenance and disruptions have affected copper processing and recovery, Cochilco noted
Cochilco also raised its forecast for average copper prices to $6.18 per pound in 2026 and $5.95 per pound in 2027, citing constrained mine supply and a refined copper market with little room to absorb production disruptions