Citi expects largely positive Q3 for QBE Insurance, retains 'buy'

** Citi expects a largely positive Q3 trading update for Australia's QBE Insurance QBE.AX on November 27

** Brokerage says 10-month catastrophe experience should still land favourably, estimates catastrophe allowance in the range of $130 million to $180 million compared to the likely allowance of $930 million

** Citi forecasts FY26 gross written premium growth of 8% despite limited growth, says the insurer can deliver its FY26 forecast via volume growth, supported by reinsurance, others

** Citi retains its "buy" rating and TP of A$26.70

** Brokerage says a further buyback announcement is likely alongside its FY26 result in February 2027

** Five of 9 analysts rate the stock "buy", 3 "hold" and 1 "sell"; their median PT is A$25.75 – LSEG data

** YTD, stock up 31.6% as of last close