CEE MARKETS-Zloty holds near 3-year low versus the euro, eyes on central banks this week
PRAGUE, Nov 2 (Reuters) - Poland's zloty held near a three-year low against the euro on Monday ahead of this week's central bank rate meeting, while the crown stabilised after recent swings with a further Czech interest rate hike on the cards.
Focus is on a Polish rate decision on Wednesday and a Czech central bank meeting on Thursday, while analysts say US dollar strength and high energy prices will continue to put pressure on central Europe's currencies.
In Poland, markets are also watching politics as a battle escalates between President Karol Nawrocki and Prime Minister Donald Tusk's pro-European government over control of the judiciary.
The Constitutional Tribunal said on Friday its longest-serving judge Anna Korwin-Piotrowska had suspended the tribunal's president, an appointee of Tusk's nationalist predecessor, and was now in charge of the court.
The zloty hit a low of 4.429 to the euro late on Sunday and was 0.4% below Friday's close on Monday, trading at 4.4185.
ING said the zloty’s weakness could "amplify the significance of this week’s (central bank) meeting".
A Reuters poll on Friday showed the vast majority of analysts saw the central bank keeping its main rate at 3.75% after softer than expected preliminary October inflation data, with a rate hike coming early next year as the inflation outlook might shift upward.
In the Czech Republic, the central bank is almost certain to raise its main rate to 4.00% from 3.75% when it meets on Thursday, a Reuters poll showed, as inflationary pressures from domestic demand and elevated energy prices build
The crown was stable at 24.352 per euro, after swings between 24.25 and 24.48 in October.
In other trading, Hungary's forint rose 0.2% to 364.85 to the euro on Monday, still on a positive wave after the new government presented a deficit-cutting budget for next year as part of a pathway to eventual euro adoption.
Global factors, such as uncertainty around the US midterm elections and high energy prices, might make the forint's strength look unjustified, one trader said, but investor confidence in next year's budget is helping.
"It was key for markets that the deficit target not be higher than 5%," the trader said.
CEE MARKETS SNAPSHOT AT 1040 CET | |||||
CURRENCIES | Latest trade | Previous close | Daily change | Change in 2026 | |
Czech crown | 24.3520 | 24.3460 | -0.02% | -0.76% | |
Hungary forint | 364.8500 | 365.6500 | +0.22% | +5.35% | |
Polish zloty | 4.4185 | 4.4025 | -0.36% | -4.59% | |
Romanian leu | 5.3400 | 5.3325 | -0.14% | -4.60% | |
Serbian dinar | 117.4700 | 117.4500 | -0.02% | -0.14% | |
Note: daily change calculated from 1800 CET | |||||
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STOCKS | Latest | Previous close | Daily change | Change in 2026 | |
Prague | .PX | 2632.35 | 2627.3300 | +0.19% | -1.98% |
Budapest | .BUX | 145935.32 | 145257.34 | +0.47% | +31.44% |
Warsaw | .WIG20 | 4165.63 | 4180.88 | -0.36% | +30.83% |
Bucharest | .BETI | 35140.92 | 35129.76 | +0.03% | +43.79% |
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BONDS | Yield (bid) | Yield change | Spread vs Bund | Daily change in spread | |
Czech Rep 2-year | 4.4122 | -0.0062 | +139bps | -1bps | |
Czech Rep 5-year | 4.7902 | -0.0055 | +168bps | -1bps | |
Czech Rep 10-year | 5.3535 | -0.0205 | +204bps | -1bps | |
Poland 2-year | 4.5880 | -0.0160 | +157bps | -2bps | |
Poland 5-year | 5.8390 | -0.0500 | +273bps | -5bps | |
Poland 10-year | 6.3340 | -0.0440 | +302bps | -4bps | |
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