CEE MARKETS-Crown, forint off multi-week highs as FX rally pauses

By Reuters News

- The Hungarian forint and Czech crown hovered around three-week highs as a slight rally by central Europe's currencies paused, with markets in risk-off mode as investors weighed prospects of a US interest rate hike.

  • After trending lower in September, currencies have seen a small rebound in recent weeks, although an acceleration in US consumer prices in September has put another rate hike on the radar and helped the dollar

  • "Our bearish CEE FX view remains unchanged: a firmer US dollar and record-high gas prices will make it difficult for regional currencies to sustain gains," ING said in a note

  • "The (Polish zloty) looks particularly vulnerable given the (central bank's) dovish stance relative to market pricing"

  • The zloty was a touch stronger at 4.37 to the euro - the region's main reference currency - on Thursday

  • The Czech central bank is the only in the region to have raised interest rates this year, while Poland's policymakers have shown no rush to tighten with rising fuel costs pushing inflation up

  • Polish central banker Ireneusz Dabrowski said in an interview published on Wednesday that interest rates could remain unchanged until the beginning of next year, but the bank would not hesitate to raise them if data is unfavourable

  • In other trading, stock markets were mixed but little changed

  • The forint was a tad higher on the day at 363.90 per euro, off a high of 363.00 hit on Wednesday, and the crown added 0.1%, reaching 24.35 to the euro; both have hit multi-week highs this week but remain well off peaks hit at the end of the summer months

  • Bank CSOB said the crown would continue to track global markets until Czech policymakers begin commenting on expectations for the next rate meeting in November, when some analysts expect a rate hike could be on the table

  • "On one hand, the crown will not welcome a strong dollar, reflecting yesterday's higher inflation figures. On the other hand, it may feel some relief from a slight decline in oil prices," CSOB said


CEE MARKETS SNAPSHOT AT 1002 CET

CURRENCIES

Latest trade

Previous close

Daily change

Change in 2026

Czech crown

24.3500

24.3770

+0.11%

-0.75%

Hungary forint

363.9000

364.0000

+0.03%

+5.62%

Polish zloty

4.3700

4.3720

+0.05%

-3.53%

Romanian leu

5.3340

5.3325

-0.03%

-4.50%

Serbian dinar

117.3500

117.4200

+0.06%

-0.04%

Note: daily change calculated from 1800 CET

STOCKS

Latest

Previous close

Daily change

Change in 2026

Prague

.PX

2623.00

2617.3300

+0.22%

-2.33%

Budapest

.BUX

143681.49

143485.08

+0.14%

+29.41%

Warsaw

.WIG20

4202.30

4207.97

-0.13%

+31.98%

Bucharest

.BETI

34291.88

33831.75

+1.36%

+40.32%

BONDS

Yield (bid)

Yield change

Spread vs Bund

Daily change in spread

Czech Rep 2-year

4.3187

-0.0379

+128bps

+2bps

Czech Rep 5-year

4.6121

-0.0913

+146bps

-2bps

Czech Rep 10-year

5.2420

-0.1049

+186bps

-2bps







Poland 2-year

4.7260

-0.3250

+168bps

-27bps

Poland 5-year

5.8770

-0.1310

+272bps

-6bps

Poland 10-year

6.2890

-0.1060

+291bps

-2bps

FORWARD RATE AGREEMENTS

3x6

6x9

9x12

3M interbank

Czech Rep

,

4.29

4.59

4.74

3.91

Poland

,

4.27

4.63

4.80

3.90

Note: FRA quotes are for ask prices




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