Bitcoin outperforms gold, $100,000 surge in play

Bitcoin (BTC) is doing what appeared unthinkable at the start of this quarter and earlier this year. It’s outperforming gold at a time when rising yields are weakening the yellow metal, while its price action points to a potential rally to $100,000.

The yellow metal fell by nearly 4% on Monday as longer-duration yields hit their highest levels since 2007, lifting the dollar index. The DXY has risen by 2.7% from 98.78 to nearly 101.50 since Sept. 9.

BTC, however, slipped just 1% on Monday, briefly hitting lows near $82,500 before bouncing back to trade around $84,000 at the time of writing.

The resilience is not limited to the 24-hour price action. BTC has surged more than 40% this quarter, leaving gold, the S&P 500 and every other major asset far behind.

BTC’s price action looks even more impressive on the charts, where it’s clearly visible that, despite upward momentum losing steam, prices have stayed in the $80,000s and above the May highs.

And herein lies the cue for a possible move to $100,000 (check today’s signal).

BTC’s move above $80,000 has triggered a “double-bottom breakout,” a technical analysis pattern confirming a bullish trend and opening the door for a rally to $100,000, according to Jurrien Timmer, director of global macro at Fidelity Investments.

"Bitcoin is looking particularly interesting here as it challenges key resistance at $80k. If it breaks it will confirm a double bottom targeting $100K," Timmer wrote on X on Friday.

A double bottom looks like the letter W on a price chart. The price drops to a low, bounces, falls back to roughly the same level, then rises again. The two dips show buyers stepping in at the same price twice. The peak in the middle of the W acts as resistance. A break above it suggests sellers have run out of steam and a new uptrend may be starting.

Timmer's chart shows bitcoin's two lows this year at $60,033 and $57,742, with the middle peak near $82,800.

Chart patterns are not guarantees. Breakouts often fail, reversing quickly and trapping buyers who chased the move.

Still, the bullish setup is consistent with options traders positioning for more gains. The $90,000 call is the most popular bitcoin options bet on crypto exchange Deribit, with $2.45 billion in open interest. The $95,000 call follows with $2.33 billion, and the $100,000 call holds $1.79 billion. A call gives the buyer the right to buy at a set price and profits when the market rises above it.

Options positioning, however, can also flip quickly as market trends change. Stay alert!

Read more: For analysis of today's activity in altcoins and derivatives, see Crypto Markets Today . For a comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk's Crypto Week Ahead.

What’s trending

• Analysts see 10-year Treasury yield hitting 6%. Bitcoin bulls shouldn't panic (CoinDesk): The 10-year Treasury yield, which affects borrowing costs across the U.S. economy, has been rising for months, and some analysts now think it's headed to 6%, a level last seen in 2000. That might sound like bad news for bitcoin. Not necessarily.
• Bitcoin is on track to shatter a major decade-long streak as September gains surge (CoinDesk): Since 2013, every previous positive August has been followed by a negative September. With two calendar days remaining, a positive close would break that pattern and give bitcoin three consecutive monthly gains, from July through September.
• U.S., Iran hold separate mediator talks as Mideast oil exports hit war-time high (CNBC): U.S. and Iranian officials have reportedly held separate indirect talks with mediators on Monday, reviving efforts to end seven months of war as Tehran presses for a response to a revised ceasefire framework and Middle East crude exports climb to their highest level since the conflict began.
• Anthropic warns AI may pose ‘existential risks' to humanity’ in IPO filing (Reuters): Anthropic plans to caution potential investors that advanced AI could pose “catastrophic or existential risks to humanity, an extraordinary warning by a company seeking to profit from the same technology.

Today’s signal

The chart shows bitcoin’s weekly price swings in candlestick format.

Prices rose past $82,000 recently, confirming the double-bottom breakout as Fidelity’s Timmer noted. The pattern indicates that the downtrend has ended and a new bull run is upon us.