Argentina's YPF swings to billion-dollar profit as shale boom gathers pace

BUENOS AIRES, Oct 28 (Reuters) - Argentina's state-controlled oil producer YPF YPFDm.BA swung to a $1.2 billion third-quarter profit on Wednesday as higher prices and booming shale output lifted earnings above analysts' expectations.

Revenue jumped 41% from a year earlier to $6.56 billion, beating the $5.80 billion estimate from analysts polled by LSEG. Adjusted EBITDA surged 84% to $2.50 billion, above an LSEG consensus of $2.25 billion.

• The strong quarter comes as YPF bets tens of billions of dollars on turning Argentina's vast Vaca Muerta shale formation into a major global oil and gas export hub

• Shale oil production averaged 224,100 barrels per day, up 32% from a year earlier, and now accounts for 86% of YPF's oil output

• The company expects to seek benefits in coming weeks under Argentina's RIGI investment incentive program for five Vaca Muerta projects representing about $44 billion in combined investment

• Those projects are crucial to President Javier Milei's push to turn Argentina's abundant shale resources into exports and bring more hard currency into an economy long constrained by shortages of dollars

• YPF, Vaca Muerta's biggest operator, raised its 2026 adjusted EBITDA forecast in August to about $8 billion from a previous forecast of $6 billion

• YPF said the VMOS crude pipeline consortium, in which it owns 30%, expects first exports in early 2027