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ANZ: Middle East Supply Risks To Keep Aluminium Above $3,000/T in Early 2027

By Reuters News

Nov 3 (Reuters) - ANZ:

  • RECOVERING MIDDLE EAST OUTPUT, RESILIENT CHINESE PRODUCTION AND STRONG GROWTH IN INDONESIAN SUPPLY SHOULD NARROW THIS YEAR'S DEFICIT AND SHIFT THE MARKET INTO SURPLUS IN 2027

  • LINGERING MIDDLE EAST SUPPLY RISKS ARE LIKELY TO KEEP PRICES VOLATILE AND ELEVATED ABOVE $3,000/T THROUGH EARLY 2027

  • EXPECTS DEMAND TO GROW BY 2.5-2.7% TO 77.5MT IN 2027

  • SAYS GLOBAL ALUMINIUM OUTPUT IS ESTIMATED TO BE STEADY IN 2026 BUT IS EXPECTED TO GROW BY MORE THAN 4% TO 77.8MT IN 2027

  • EXPECTS INDONESIAN OUTPUT TO RISE FROM 709KT IN 2026 TO 1.3 MT IN 2027 AND 2.9 MT BY 2030

  • SAYS EARLIER ESTIMATES POINTED TO 3–3.5MT OF LOST MIDDLE EAST PRODUCTION, BUT IMPROVING RUN RATES SHOULD LIMIT ANNUAL LOSSES TO LESS THAN 2MT

  • EXPECTS CHINA TO PRODUCE 45.4MT OF ALUMINIUM IN 2027, IMPLYING A MATERIAL SLOWDOWN IN OUTPUT GROWTH

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