A remarkable Q3, French woes and Trump's diesel hit: The financial week in five charts
By Anna Szymanski
Oct 2 (Reuters) - Every Friday, Reuters Open Interest (ROI) distills the financial week into five key charts, spotlighting the major trends, surprises and overlooked moves that defined the past five days.
1. TALE OF TWO QUARTERS
JAMIE MCGEEVER, ROI Markets Columnist: Wednesday capped an extraordinary quarter marked by a bond rout that sent yields to multi-decade-highs around the world, a 40% jump in Brent crude and record-high diesel prices.
Yet US and global stocks still scaled fresh record highs, driven by eye-popping corporate earnings growth. While equity gains were modest, they were still notable given the dismal backdrop and the fact that they were coming off the strongest three-month period in six years.
As the final quarter of 2026 begins, the question is whether stocks can continue to grind higher even as global bond woes continue.
2. PAS BIEN
ANNA SZYMANSKI, ROI Editor-in-Charge: While the bond rout has hit most developed markets, France stands out — for the wrong reasons. The country's 10-year borrowing cost surged to its highest level since 2002 on Thursday, nearing the psychologically important 5% mark following its worst quarterly performance since 1987.
This helped widen the gap between French and German 10-year borrowing costs, which is currently close to the broadest it has been since the euro zone debt crisis. The cost of insuring France's debt against the risk of default has also leapt to its highest point since 2013.
This comes as the government is putting forward a 2027 budget bill that could struggle to get through parliament given its unpopular belt-tightening measures. French public sector workers held a strike on Tuesday over a proposed wage freeze, while students' demonstrations over a lack of resources for schools have turned increasingly violent.
3. DIESEL'S POLITICAL TOLL
GAVIN MAGUIRE, ROI Global Energy Transition Columnist: The Trump administration has told Germany and France to draw down their emergency diesel inventories to help ease the global fuel squeeze or face a potential US diesel export ban.
Diesel prices remain near record highs, which is hitting the trucking and farming sectors hard. This appears to be weighing on US President Donald Trump's approval ratings and could be helping to drive a broad shift toward Democrats ahead of November's midterm elections. (The potential relationship between diesel prices and the likelihood of Democrats winning control of the Senate was initially indicated by Barclays.)
4. OCTOBER DOUBTS
MIKE DOLAN, ROI Finance & Markets Columnist: The past 10 days have seen sharp swings in market expectations for the October Federal Reserve meeting. Incoming economic data and policymakers' speeches initially pushed futures-market-implied odds of a rate hike to 70%. But those odds retreated to around, or below, 50% after New York Federal Reserve President John Williams this week steered clear of endorsing consecutive rate increases.
5. AN EXISTENTIAL INVESTMENT?
ANNA SZYMANSKI, ROI Editor-in-Charge: Anthropic plans a mammoth investment of more than half a trillion dollars in computing infrastructure over the coming years, according to its confidential IPO prospectus, which Reuters saw earlier this week.
But the AI startup lab, which is targeting a $2 trillion valuation, also reiterated warnings that advanced AI could pose "catastrophic or existential risks to humanity."
That's an interesting position for both Anthropic and its investors. Is plowing more money into AI a way to shore up the technology's promise and avert its peril? Or is it simply perilous?
Opinions expressed are those of the authors. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.