Michael Kramer: How to Analyse JPMorgan Chase Before Earnings
JPMorgan Chase’s market capitalisation has risen from roughly $299 billion in October 2022 to a 2026 peak of roughly $971 billion and now sits at about $886 billion as of 1 October, an increase of nearly threefold.
Revenue comes from three business segments: Consumer & Community Banking, the Commercial & Investment Bank, and Asset & Wealth Management.
(Source: LSEG, as of 1 October 2026. Calculations based on LSEG data)
(Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results)
Earnings History
Across the 21 quarters shown, JPMorgan Chase’s revenue exceeded analysts’ consensus mean estimate in 20 quarters, while EPS exceeded the consensus mean estimate in 19. Among the positive surprises, EPS averaged 12.1% above consensus, while revenue averaged 3.6% above consensus.
(Source: LSEG, as of 1 October 2026. Calculations based on LSEG data)
(Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results)
Segment Revenue
The Commercial & Investment Bank generated $24.9 billion of revenue in the second quarter of 2026, up from $19.5 billion a year earlier. Consumer & Community Banking revenue was $20.3 billion, up from $18.8 billion, and Asset & Wealth Management revenue was $6.9 billion, up from $5.8 billion.
(Source: LSEG, as of 1 October 2026. Calculations based on LSEG data)
(Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results)
Trading Income
Trading income was $9.0 billion in the second quarter of 2026, up 26.0% from $7.1 billion a year earlier and the highest quarterly figure in the period shown. Across the ten quarters from the first quarter of 2024, trading income ranged from $5.2 billion in the fourth quarter of 2024 to $9.0 billion in the second quarter of 2026, with the fourth quarter the lowest in both 2024 and 2025. Year-on-year growth has been positive in each of the past six quarters, and trading income accounted for between 11% and 17% of total revenue over the period.
(Source: LSEG, as of 1 October 2026. Calculations based on LSEG data)
(Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results)
Net Interest Income
Net interest income was $25.5 billion in the second quarter of 2026, up 9.9% from $23.2 billion a year earlier. Net interest margin was 2.40%, compared with 2.43% a year earlier and 2.58% in the first quarter of 2025.
(Source: LSEG, as of 1 October 2026. Calculations based on LSEG data)
(Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results)
Book Value
Book value per share is common shareholders’ equity divided by common shares outstanding, representing the net assets recorded on the balance sheet for each common share. It is a common reference point for banks because loans and securities make up much of their balance sheets, although these assets are not all recorded at market value. Book value per share was $133.01 in the second quarter of 2026, up 8.6% from $122.51 a year earlier. Over the full period shown, it has risen from $84.85 in the second quarter of 2021.
(Source: LSEG, as of 1 October 2026. Calculations based on LSEG data)
(Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results)
Options-Implied Earnings Range
Option prices can be used to calculate an implied trading range around an earnings announcement. Across the 12 announcements shown, 10-day at-the-money implied volatility produced an average one-standard-deviation range of ±5.7%, while the average absolute realised next-session move was 2.5%. The next-session share-price move remained within the calculated range in eleven cases and was outside it in only one.
The implied range was estimated using the 10-day at-the-money implied volatility observed at the last close before each report, scaled to the option’s 10-day term using implied volatility × √(10/365) and applied to the share price. This produces a one-standard-deviation range derived from option prices. It does not represent a forecast or indicate the direction of the share-price move.
(Source: LSEG (price data) and VolVue (implied volatility), as of 1 October 2026. Calculations based on LSEG and VolVue data)
(Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results)
Valuation Metrics
As of 1 October 2026, JPMorgan Chase’s forward price-to-earnings ratio, based on analysts’ estimates for the next 12 months, was 13.2. From October 2021 to October 2026, the average P/E was 12.2, and the median was 12.3, placing the 1 October observation above both measures for the period.
Historical valuation multiples provide context for how the market has priced the company over time. These comparisons do not indicate whether the shares are currently overvalued or undervalued.
(Source: LSEG, as of 1 October 2026. Calculations based on LSEG data)
(Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results)
As of 1 October 2026, JPMorgan Chase’s forward price-to-tangible-book ratio, based on analysts’ estimates of tangible book value per share for the next 12 months, was 2.63. From October 2021 to October 2026, the average ratio was 2.10, and the median was 2.03, placing the 1 October observation above both measures for the period.
(Source: LSEG, as of 1 October 2026. Calculations based on LSEG data)
(Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results)
Conclusion
JPMorgan Chase’s earnings history, segment revenue, trading income, net interest income, book value, options-implied ranges and valuation multiples provide historical context.
As of 1 October 2026, JPMorgan Chase’s forward P/E and forward price-to-tangible-book ratios were above their respective historical averages and medians for the periods shown. These measures reflect historical observations and do not forecast the next earnings announcement. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.