Michael Kramer: How to Analyse Amazon Before Earnings

Amazon’s reported results have varied relative to analysts’ consensus estimates. From the first quarter of 2021 through the first quarter of 2026, reported EPS and revenue each exceeded the consensus mean estimate in 16 of 21 quarters. EPS surprises ranged from −31.4% to +85.7%, while revenue surprises were narrower. The charts below also compare reported capital expenditure with consensus estimates and present historical AWS data.

The Results

Amazon’s reported EPS has varied relative to analysts’ consensus estimates, while revenue surprises have remained within a narrower range. Since the first quarter of 2021, Amazon has beaten analysts’ revenue estimates 16 out of 21 times, and earnings estimates 16 out of 21 times. Across the positive surprises shown, EPS exceeded the consensus mean estimate by an average of 37.1%. Across the negative surprises, EPS was below consensus by an average of 13.4%. Positive revenue surprises averaged 1.7%, while negative revenue surprises averaged 0.7%.

(Source: LSEG, as of 13 July 2026. Calculations based on LSEG date)
(Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results)

From the first quarter of 2021 through the first quarter of 2026, Amazon reported capital expenditure above analysts’ consensus mean estimates in 16 of 21 quarters. Reported capital expenditure was less than $20 billion in the first quarter of 2024 and was $44.2 billion in the first quarter of 2026, compared with a consensus mean estimate of $41.4 billion.

(Source: LSEG, as of 13 July 2026. Calculations based on LSEG date)
(Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results)

AWS year-over-year revenue growth was 18.9% in the fourth quarter of 2024, 16.9% in the first quarter of 2025, 17.5% in the second quarter, 20.2% in the third quarter, 23.6% in the fourth quarter and 28.4% in the first quarter of 2026.

(Source: LSEG, as of 13 July 2026. Calculations based on LSEG data)
(Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results)

From the first quarter of 2023 through the first quarter of 2026, AWS operating income represented between 50% and 107% of Amazon’s total operating income in the quarterly observations shown. The figure was 59% in the first quarter of 2026. A figure above 100% occurs when Amazon’s other reported segments record a combined operating loss.

(Source: LSEG, as of 13 July 2026. Calculations based on LSEG data)
(Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results)

Options Price Uncertainty

Options prices can be used to calculate an implied trading range around an earnings announcement. Across the seven announcements shown, the one-week at-the-money options-implied ranges were approximately ±8% to ±15%. The next-session share-price move remained within the calculated range in five cases and was outside it in two.

The implied range was estimated using the one-week at-the-money implied volatility observed at the close on the day of the earnings announcement, scaled to the option's one-week term (implied volatility × √(7/365)) and applied to the share price. This produces a one-standard-deviation range derived from option prices. It does not represent a forecast or assign a direction to the share-price move.

(Source: LSEG, as of 13 July 2026. Calculations based on LSEG data)
(Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results)

Valuation Metrics

As of 13 July 2026, Amazon’s forward price-to-earnings ratio, based on analysts’ estimates for the next twelve months, is 26. From September 2019 through July 2026, Amazon's average P/E was 51.7, and its median was 53.8, so its P/E is below both its historical average and median over the period.

Historical valuation multiples provide context for how the market has priced the company over time. No conclusion about whether the shares are currently overvalued or undervalued is drawn from these historical comparisons.

(Source: LSEG, as of 13 July 2026. Calculations based on LSEG data)
(Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results)

As of 13 July 2026, Amazon’s forward price-to-sales ratio, based on analysts’ consensus next-twelve-month revenue estimates, was 3.16. From February 2022 through July 2026, its average P/S ratio was 2.67, and its median was 2.69, so the ratio was above both its historical average and median over the period shown.

(Source: LSEG, as of 13 July 2026. Calculations based on LSEG data)
(Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results)

Over the period shown, Amazon’s trailing-12-month EPS recorded an average year-over-year growth rate of 55.9%, with a median of 49.7%. Revenue growth averaged 17.9%, with a median of 12.4%. In the first quarter of 2026, the corresponding observations were 17.1% for EPS growth and 14.2% for revenue growth.

(Source: LSEG, as of 13 July 2026. Calculations based on LSEG data)
(Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results)

The charts present historical observations of Amazon’s results relative to consensus estimates, capital expenditure, AWS revenue growth, operating-income share, options-implied ranges, actual next-session moves, and valuation multiples. These measures describe past observations and do not provide a forecast for the next earnings announcement.