BYD stock forecast: Third-party price target

Founded in 1995, BYD (Build Your Dreams) is a Chinese multinational company that evolved from a rechargeable battery manufacturer into one of the world’s largest electric vehicle (EV) producers. The Shenzhen-based company focuses on multiple sectors, which include automobiles, electronics, and renewable energy – with more than 30 industrial parks worldwide.

BYD trades as 1211 on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange (HKEX) and trades over-the-counter (OTC) in the US, under the ticker symbol: BYDDF. As of 21 February 2025, BYD has a market capitalisation of around $1.17 trillion HKD.

As of 21 February 2025, 1211 stock is trading at $392.45 HKD, reflecting a 5.44% increase over the past month and a 48.32% rise since 2 January 2025.

With the global EV landscape becoming increasingly competitive and market dynamics shifting, how will BYD's share price perform in the coming months? Here’s third-party analysts’ BYD stock forecasts for 2025 and beyond.

BYD stock forecast: How do analysts view BYD?

Analysts remain largely positive on BYD, citing strong sales momentum and competitive positioning despite pricing pressures. Morningstar’s Vincent Sun reiterated a $372 HKD price target and a ‘three-star’ rating, highlighting stronger-than-expected 2024 vehicle sales, which exceeded Morningstar’s forecast by 10%. He expected higher vehicle margins to offset increased sales and operating expenses, helping BYD maintain its leading market position. 

Sun also noted the launch of AI-powered advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS) at no extra cost which enhances BYD’s competitiveness.

JP Morgan’s Nick Lai set a $600 HKD price target and maintained a ‘buy’ rating on 19 February 2025. Bernstein’s Eunice Lee provided a $350 HKD price target with a ‘buy’ rating on 17 January 2025.

Meanwhile, TradingView’s consensus forecast from 31 analysts set a 12-month average price target of $51.05 USD ($396.73 HKD), with estimates ranging from $32.79 USD ($254.83 HKD) to $88.16 USD ($685.13 HKD). Among 28 analysts, 25 rated BYD a ‘strong buy,’ two a ‘buy,’ three a ‘hold,’ and one a ‘strong sell’.

MarketBeat compiled two analyst ratings, both recommending a ‘buy’. Barron’s aggregated a $40 USD ($310.86 HKD) price target from three analysts: two rated BYD a ‘buy’, while one assigned an ‘overweight’ rating.

BYD shares: Long-term prediction

Looking further ahead, Gov.capital projected a bullish trajectory for BYD, forecasting an average price of $61.77 USD ($480.03 HKD) by the end of 2025, rising to $108.75 USD ($845.14 HKD) by 31 December 2026. By February 2030, the site estimated BYD would trade at $108.64 USD ($844.29 HKD) based on exchange rates as of 21 February 2025.

Wallet Investor offered a more moderate forecast, predicting BYD would close 2025 at $46.61 USD ($362.23 HKD) and rise to $47.01 USD ($365.34 HKD) by the end of 2026. By February 2030, Wallet Investor projected an average price of $48.75 USD ($378.86 HKD).

It’s impossible to predict future stock price movements with 100% accuracy, and past performance doesn’t guarantee future results. due to the unpredictability of financial markets. Perform due diligence, and never trade with more than you can afford to lose.

BYD’s share price drivers

BYD’s share price may be influenced by a number of potential factors, including US-China trade relations, EV-market competition, government net-zero-emissions policies, and the price of lithium – a key component in lithium-ion battery production.

EV market competition

BYD competes across multiple regions, challenging established automakers such as Tesla and Volkswagen in the US and Europe, while fending off domestic rivals like Li Auto and XPeng in China.

In China, the government’s data security laws could hinder foreign automakers, potentially benefiting BYD. The company holds a strong market presence domestically, giving it an edge over newer entrants. However, growing price competition may impact margins.

Internationally, expansion into Europe and Latin America has positioned BYD as a key challenger, but trade restrictions could present risks. In the US, tariffs on foreign-built automobiles and auto parts may limit growth opportunities. In response, BYD has announced plans to establish manufacturing facilities in North America, aiming to circumvent potential regulatory barriers.

Government climate and trade policies

Government policies on emissions and trade can impact BYD’s margins.

China continues to subsidise EV purchases and infrastructure development, which potentially benefits domestic automakers, including BYD. Meanwhile, the EU’s proposed restrictions on Chinese EV imports could impact BYD’s European expansion strategy. In the US, potential adjustments to the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) and associated EV tax credits could influence demand for non-US-made electric vehicles.

Trade tensions also remain a factor. The US is considering imposing tariffs on Chinese auto parts, while the EU has implemented tariffs of up to 35.3% on Chinese EV imports to protect its domestic industry. Any escalation in trade barriers could affect BYD’s exports and supply chain costs.

Lithium prices and demand

As a major lithium-ion battery producer, BYD is exposed to fluctuations in lithium prices.

Lithium carbonate prices declined in 2023 and 2024, but long-term demand remains strong as EV adoption rises. If lithium prices rebound, BYD could face higher production costs, potentially impacting profitability. However, BYD has invested in lithium mining projects to secure a stable supply, which could mitigate risks.

Supply chain disruptions – whether from geopolitical tensions or raw material shortages – could also impact production and costs. Additionally, rising labour costs in China’s manufacturing sector may affect BYD’s competitiveness.

Technological advancements in electric batteries

BYD is investing in next-generation battery technology, which could shape its future market position.

The company plans to begin mass production of solid-state batteries in 2027, a potential breakthrough in EV technology. These batteries promise greater energy density and safety compared to lithium-ion alternatives. If successful, this could enhance BYD’s competitive advantage.

Meanwhile, rivals such as Toyota are targeting 2026 for its solid-state EVs. The timing, cost efficiency, and market reception of these advancements will be key factors in determining BYD’s future profitability.

The dynamic electric car market

Electric vehicles (EVs) are projected to exceed 60 million global sales by 2035, according to the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) global electric vehicle outlook 2024. This projection comes from the IEA’s stated pledges scenario (STEPS), which is based on current policies, announced pledges, and realistic implementation.

‘The current momentum in electric car sales has led to anticipation in China that passenger new energy vehicle (NEV) sales could reach a 50% share as soon as 2025,’ The IEA noted.

Meanwhile, ING analysts Oleksiy Soroka and Rico Luman predicted a slowdown in the global car market in 2025, forecasting ‘limited growth.’ They also highlighted diverging EV trends between China and Western auto markets: in 2024, electric cars represented 40% of all sales in China, with ING projecting this figure to climb to 50% by 2025.

‘This rapid electrification hurts Western incumbent car makers with significant stakes in China including Mercedes, VW and BMW, as they lose ground to Chinese brands in the transition. This remains a concern for 2025.’ ING analysts said on 22 January 2025.

BYD share price history

BYD, traded as 1211 on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, began as an energy-storage company specialising in batteries. Since its 2002 IPO, BYD has grown to a vertically-integrated manufacturing conglomerate, with a global footprint – including its EV focused BYD Auto subsidiary – which competes against Tesla and Volkswagen.

Past performance doesn’t guarantee future results

BYD's share price experienced significant volatility in 2022, reaching a peak of $333 on 28 June 2022, before closing the year at around $188.78 HKD – a decrease of approximately 43.3% from its June peak.

BYD's expanding market share in China and increasing international presence helped to lift market sentiment in 2023. BYD's focus on technological innovation, including advancements in battery technology and the announcement of its luxury brand Yangwang, also helped drive stock performance. BYD's share price closed at approximately $211.19 HKD on 29 December 2023 – reflecting a year-on-year increase of 11.87%.

In 2024, BYD continued to strengthen its position in the global EV market. The company's expansion into European and Latin American markets bolstered its stock performance. BYD's announcement of plans to begin mass production of solid-state batteries in 2027 garnered significant attention from traders. BYD’s share price reflected this optimism, closing 31 December 2024 at $266.60 HKD – a 26.23% year-on-year increase.

As of 21 February 2025, BYD's stock is trading at $392.40 HKD, which represents a 113.83% year-on year increase from the 21 February 2024 closing price of $183.51 HKD.

Earnings: BYD’s performance

BYD reported strong Q3 2024 earnings on 30 October 2024, with revenue and net profit rising 11% year-over-year compared to Q3 2023.

Morningstar analyst Sun noted that both revenue and profit exceeded expectations, with the first nine months of 2024 accounting for 80% of Morningstar’s full-year revenue forecast and 81% of its profit estimate. He highlighted BYD’s 32% year-to-date increase in vehicle sales as a key driver and projected that sales momentum would remain strong for the rest of the year, reinforcing its market leadership.

Motley Fool industrial specialist Daniel Miller pointed out on 3 February 2025 that BYD sold nearly 4.3 million vehicles globally in 2024, a sharp increase from 3 million in 2023. He emphasised BYD’s breakout year, noting that after surpassing Volkswagen as China’s largest carmaker in 2023, the company continued to achieve significant milestones in 2024.

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