Wall St steady as ceasefire tempers risk, gold consolidates
Traders react with cautious optimism to the news of a ceasefire between Hamas and Israel as the US government shutdown continues to cloud the outlook for rates
Equities are finishing the week on a mixed note after a volatile week. In the U.S., the rally merely caught its breath—with the S&P 500 still up modestly on the week through Thursday’s close even as mega-caps wobbled. Europe is mixed on Friday after a strong run, with the STOXX 600 giving back some of the gains seen earlier in the week, while Asia was uneven—Japan lagged as producer-price surprises and politics trimmed risk appetite, but Korea outperformed on chip strength. The ceasefire framework in the Middle East acted like a risk-premium release valve, however markets are treading with caution as the deal is not final, and valuations still remain high.
S&P 500 weekly chart
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
Gold has cooled from midweek records but is still on track for an eighth straight weekly gain, holding just below $4,000 as safe-haven demand and the prospect of further Fed cuts underpin the commodity. Near term, consolidation around $3,950–$4,000 looks reasonable unless real yields jump or the dollar stages a sharper rebound.
On FX, the U.S. dollar has stabilised off recent lows—the DXY sits in the high-98s, roughly flat-to-firmer on a one-month view—taking a little shine off precious metals at the margin but not enough to derail the trend. Fundamentally there is still some weakness in the currency, however, the chart is showing increasing signs of a trend reversal, with a double bottom pattern unfolding. Buyers will need to keep the momentum going past the 99.80 resistance to confirm a longer-term reversal is in play.
US dollar Index (DXY) daily chart
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
Into next week, the focus will be on whether the ceasefire headlines stick, how far AI-led leadership can stretch after big gains, and whether incoming data (to the extent not delayed) nudges the Fed path or term premium enough to shift equity multiples.