Xiaomi stock forecast: Q4 profit drop, SU7 orders

Xiaomi is a Hong Kong-listed technology company whose shares remain in focus after a decline in Q4 profit, while strong early SU7 orders have added a new demand driver in 2026. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Explore third-party 1810 price targets and technicals.

By Dan Mitchellan hour ago

Photo: Shutterstock

Xiaomi Corporation (1810) is trading at $32.25 HKD on Capital.com's feed as of 2:39pm UTC on 8 April 2026, within an intraday range of $31.82–$32.68 HKD. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.

Pressure on the broader Hong Kong market persists after the Hang Seng Index recorded a significant decline on 7 April 2026 and stood at 25,893 on 8 April, as the US moved to impose sweeping reciprocal tariffs that weighed heavily on Chinese technology shares (Reuters, 7 April 2026). Xiaomi's own results, released in late March 2026, showed a 24% year-on-year fall in Q4 adjusted profit, with Reuters citing rising memory costs and intensifying competition as key headwinds (Reuters, 24 March 2026). On the product side, the refreshed SU7 electric sedan attracted more than 30,000 locked-in orders following its 19 March 2026 launch, with 15,000 units secured in the first 34 minutes (CNEVPost, 23 March 2026). That helped offset some of the broader earnings concerns, while Xiaomi's 2026 annual EV delivery target stands at 550,000 units (Reuters, 19 March 2026).

Xiaomi stock forecast 2026–2030: Third-party price targets

As of 8 April 2026, third-party Xiaomi stock predictions reflect a broadly cautious reset following the company's Q4 2025 results, rising upstream component costs, and a challenging macro backdrop driven by US–China trade tensions.

Zephirin (single-analyst sell-side revision)

Zephirin trims its 12-month target to $27 HKD from $31 HKD, while retaining a Sell rating, making it the most bearish publicly tracked estimate on the stock at that date. The downward revision follows Xiaomi's reported 24% year-on-year fall in Q4 adjusted net profit, with the analyst citing margin compression across the smartphone segment amid elevated memory costs (MarketScreener, 24 March 2026).

Jefferies (target cut, Hold)

Jefferies cuts its 12-month target to $30.45 HKD from $43.36 HKD, while moving its rating to Hold, representing a significant reduction from its earlier Buy stance. The broker flags a forecast 31% fall in 2026 global smartphone shipments to 867 million units as a key headwind for handset-exposed names, with Xiaomi's mobile segment revenue assumptions carrying downside risk amid tariff-driven demand disruption (Yahoo Finance, 2 March 2026).

Bocom International (downgrade, neutral target)

Bocom International downgrades Xiaomi to Neutral from Buy, setting a 1810 stock forecast of $37 HKD, as the broker reassesses its earlier constructive view in light of slowing EV momentum and rising cost pressures. The revision comes amid a period in which Xiaomi shares fell roughly 44% from their 2025 peak, with short interest rising materially as market participants positioned for further earnings headwinds (Moomoo, 13 March 2026).

China Galaxy Securities (initiation, Add)

China Galaxy Securities initiates coverage of Xiaomi with an Add rating and a 12-month price target of $44.70 HKD, representing the most constructive view among brokers publishing estimates in late March. The initiation notes Xiaomi's EV pipeline and ecosystem strategy as medium-term drivers, with the refreshed SU7 securing more than 30,000 locked-in orders following its 19 March 2026 unveiling as a near-term demand signal (Futunn, 26 March 2026).

Goldman Sachs (target cut, Buy maintained)

Goldman Sachs retains a Buy rating with a revised 12-month target of $41 HKD, down from $47.50 HKD. The bank cites rising upstream costs across consumer electronics and automotive supply chains, the gradual phase-out of national EV subsidies, and resulting margin pressure across the smartphone, AIoT, and smart EV divisions as the basis for the revision, while noting EV delivery volume of approximately 670,000 units in 2026 as an upside scenario anchored to the revamped SU7 (Longbridge, 10 March 2026).

Across these Xiaomi stock predictions, 12-month price targets for span $27 HKD at the low end to $44.70 HKD at the high end, with recurring themes around rising memory and component costs, EV margin uncertainty, and slowing global smartphone shipment growth weighing on consensus. Goldman Sachs and China Galaxy Securities appear more constructive, while Jefferies and Zephirin sit at the cautious end of the range.

Predictions and third-party forecasts are inherently uncertain, as they cannot fully account for unexpected market developments. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.

1810 stock price: Technical overview

The 1810 stock price trades at $32.25 HKD within a session range of $31.82–$32.68 HKD, sitting below the entire moving-average stack as of 8 April 2026. The 20-, 50-, 100- and 200-day simple moving averages stand at approximately $33.25, $34.37, $37.25 and $45.39 HKD, all registering sell signals, with the 20-day SMA running below the 50-day SMA, a configuration that points to negative short-term alignment. The Hull moving average (9) at $31.57 HKD registers a buy signal, as do the 10-day exponential and simple moving averages near $32.44 and $32.25 HKD, suggesting some near-term stabilisation, though the broader trend remains bearish.

The 14-day relative strength index reads 46.89, placing momentum in neutral territory. The average directional index at 18.81 indicates a weak, directionless trend at present. The moving average convergence/divergence level (12, 26) sits at -0.76 on a sell reading, while the stochastic %K at 15.96 and stochastic RSI fast at 18.80 both register buy signals, consistent with a near-term oversold condition rather than a confirmed recovery.

On the upside, the classic R1 pivot at $35.56 HKD is the nearest reference above the current price; a daily close through that level would put the R2 area near $39.36 HKD in view. On the downside, the classic pivot point at $33.38 HKD sits above the current price and acts as a near-term ceiling and reference point. Initial support rests at S1 near $29.58 HKD, with S2 at $27.40 HKD representing the next meaningful level if S1 gives way (TradingView, 8 April 2026).

Xiaomi (1810): Capital.com analyst view

Xiaomi's share price has pulled back sharply in early 2026, retreating from above $60 HKD in mid-2025 to around $32 HKD by April 2026, a decline of roughly 44% from its peak. The drawdown reflects a convergence of pressures: a reported 24% year-on-year fall in Q4 2025 adjusted net profit, rising memory and component costs compressing smartphone margins, and a broader sell-off in Hong Kong-listed technology stocks driven by US–China tariff escalation. On the other hand, Xiaomi's refreshed SU7 electric vehicle attracted more than 30,000 locked-in orders within days of its 19 March 2026 unveiling, and the company's 2026 annual EV delivery target of approximately 550,000 units could support a reappraisal of the stock's valuation if execution holds through the year.

The balance of risks remains wide. A stabilisation in input costs, stronger-than-expected EV profitability, or a de-escalation in US–China trade tensions could each provide upside, while a sustained deterioration in global smartphone demand, further margin erosion, or a prolonged Hang Seng downturn could extend the current downtrend. The spread between the lowest and highest published analyst 12-month price targets, from approximately $27 HKD to $80 HKD, reflects the degree of uncertainty surrounding these competing outcomes.

CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.

Summary – Xiaomi 2026

Xiaomi (1810) trades at $32.25 HKD as of 2:39pm UTC on 8 April 2026, down sharply from above $60 HKD at its 2025 peak and within a session range of $31.82–$32.68 HKD.
Key drivers include escalating US–China tariff pressure on Hong Kong technology stocks, rising memory and component costs, and Xiaomi's first quarterly profit decline in three years.
The refreshed SU7 electric vehicle launch on 19 March 2026 drew more than 30,000 locked-in orders rapidly, representing a potential demand-side positive amid broader earnings headwinds.

Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.

FAQ

Who owns the most Xiaomi stock?

Xiaomi’s largest shareholder is generally reported to be founder and chief executive Lei Jun. Xiaomi’s investor relations materials identify the company as operating with weighted voting rights, and recent third-party reporting has continued to attribute roughly a 24% stake to Lei Jun through his holding structure. Ownership positions can change over time, so readers should check Xiaomi’s latest filings for the most current breakdown.

What is the 5 year Xiaomi share price forecast?

There isn’t a reliable five-year 1810 stock forecast in the material covered in this article. Most published broker research focuses on 12-month price targets rather than multi-year share price projections. As of late March and early April 2026, the broker range discussed in the article runs from $27 HKD to $44.70 HKD, which shows how varied short-term views already are. Longer-term outcomes would depend on factors such as margins, EV execution, and broader market conditions.

Is Xiaomi a good stock to buy?

Whether Xiaomi is a good stock to buy depends on an individual’s objectives, risk tolerance, time horizon, and view of the company’s outlook. The article presents a mixed picture: Xiaomi has faced pressure from weaker profit trends, rising component costs, and broader US–China trade tension, but it has also seen strong early interest in its SU7 vehicle line and retains support from some brokers. That balance of positives and risks means the stock may be assessed differently by different market participants.

Could Xiaomi stock go up or down?

Xiaomi shares could move in either direction because several competing factors remain in play. On one side, easing input costs, stronger EV execution, or an improvement in market sentiment could support the price. On the other, weaker smartphone demand, margin pressure, or further stress across Hong Kong technology stocks could weigh on it. The wide spread in published broker targets covered in the article underlines that uncertainty rather than pointing to one settled direction.

Should I invest in Xiaomi stock?

This is a personal decision rather than one the article can answer directly. The piece is designed to summarise third-party forecasts, technical levels, and key business drivers, not to provide investment advice. Anyone considering exposure to Xiaomi would usually need to weigh the company’s earnings trends, EV expansion, macro risks, and their own financial circumstances before making a decision. Past performance and published targets do not guarantee future outcomes.

Can I trade Xiaomi CFDs on Capital.com?

Yes, you can trade Xiaomi CFDs on Capital.com. Trading share CFDs lets you speculate on price movements without owning the underlying asset and to take long or short positions. However, contracts for difference (CFDs) are traded on margin, and leverage amplifies both profits and losses. You should ensure you understand how CFD trading works, assess your risk tolerance, and recognise that losses can occur quickly.