Rheinmetall stock forecast: 2026 guidance miss, backlog grows

Rheinmetall is a German defence manufacturer whose 2025 sales rose 29% to €9.9 billion, while weaker-than-expected 2026 margin guidance has weighed on the stock since its March results. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Explore third-party RHM price targets.

By Dan Mitchell6 minutes ago

Photo: Shutterstock

Rheinmetall AG (RHM) is trading at €1,466.02 as of 2:58pm UTC on 24 March 2026, within an intraday range of €1,437.55–€1,522.96. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.

Sentiment around RHM reflects a combination of company-specific and macro drivers. Rheinmetall reported full-year 2025 sales of €9.9 billion, up 29% year on year, with an order backlog of €63.8 billion at year-end, while guiding for 40–45% sales growth in 2026 (Rheinmetall, 11 March 2026). However, its operating profit margin guidance of approximately 19% and free cash flow conversion guidance of more than 40% of operating profit came in below market expectations, which has weighed on the share price since its 11 March earnings release (Reuters, 11 March 2026). Separately, Germany's 2026 federal budget earmarks approximately €108 billion for defence, a 25% year-on-year increase, reinforcing the structural demand backdrop for the company (Yahoo Finance, 11 March 2026). The broader DAX (DE40) is quoted near 22,609 in the session, while the STOXX 600 trades near 578, as European indices digest mixed macro signals (Yahoo Finance, 24 March 2026).

Rheinmetall stock forecast 2026–2030: Third-party price targets

As of 24 March 2026, third-party Rheinmetall stock predictions reflect a broadly constructive but nuanced picture, shaped by the company's full-year 2025 results, its guidance for 40–45% revenue growth in 2026, and the sustained expansion of European defence budgets. The following briefs summarise five independent assessments from that period.

Jefferies (rating reaffirmation, Buy)

Jefferies reaffirms its Buy rating and €2,060 price target, after full-year 2025 revenue and Q4 results came in roughly 7% below market consensus. Analyst Chloe Lemarie cites intact structural tailwinds from European rearmament as sufficient to maintain the constructive stance, even as near-term earnings momentum disappointed (MarketScreener, 11 March 2026).

Goldman Sachs (house view, Buy)

Goldman Sachs maintains its Buy rating and €2,300 price target, as analyst Sam Burgess notes that 2025 revenue and operating results fell short of expectations and that 2026 operating profit guidance sits slightly below consensus. Burgess retains the highest published target in this period, with the constructive view grounded in the longer-term European rearmament cycle (MarketScreener, 11 March 2026).

Bernstein (reiteration, Buy)

Bernstein keeps its Buy rating and leaves its €2,050 price target unchanged following the 11 March 2026 full-year results, with analyst Adrien Rabier maintaining a positive view on the stock amid the post-results share price weakness. Rabier's assessment reflects continued confidence in Rheinmetall's ammunition demand pipeline and its 2030 growth trajectory, while acknowledging near-term margin and guidance uncertainty (MarketScreener, 11 March 2026).

Berenberg (estimate revision, Buy)

Berenberg reiterates its Buy rating and €2,100 price target, with analyst George McWhirter noting that Rheinmetall's growth drivers remain intact after the full-year results. McWhirter raises his revenue forecasts for 2026 and 2027, citing continued order pipeline growth and a positive surprise in 2025 ammunition-segment margins, while trimming near-term free cash flow estimates (MarketScreener, 13 March 2026).

MarketScreener (consensus overview, Buy)

MarketScreener's consensus dashboard, drawing on 20 covering analysts, records a mean 12-month price target of €2,102 for RHM, with individual estimates spanning €1,700–€2,500 and an overall Buy mean consensus rating. The spread between the lowest and highest targets reflects differing assumptions on margin delivery and the pace at which large NATO and German procurement contracts convert into reported earnings (MarketScreener, 22 March 2026).

Takeaway: across these sources, Rheinmetall stock predictions range from €2,060 (Jefferies) to €2,300 (Goldman Sachs), clustering around the consensus mean of €2,102 as of 22 March 2026, with Buy or equivalent ratings across all five sources. Common themes include structural European defence demand and order backlog visibility as supportive factors, while near-term margin execution and free cash flow conversion are cited as the main risk factors.

Predictions and third-party forecasts are inherently uncertain, as they cannot fully account for unexpected market developments. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.

RHM stock price: Technical overview

The RHM stock price trades at €1,466.02 as of 2:58pm UTC on 24 March 2026, sitting below every major moving average on the daily chart. According to TradingView data, the 20/50/100/200-day SMAs stand at approximately €1,590 / €1,683 / €1,662 / €1,720, all registering sell signals, with price currently beneath the entire MA stack. The Hull moving average (9) at €1,463.8 sits just below the last price, while the volume-weighted moving average (20) stands at €1,577.1, reinforcing the broader bearish MA alignment.

Momentum indicators reflect a subdued picture. The 14-day relative strength index reads 35.9, placing price in lower-neutral territory, short of the oversold threshold but without a meaningful recovery signal, per TradingView oscillator data. The MACD (12, 26) level is -44.7, a sell signal, while the commodity channel index (20) at -193.5 reads as a buy signal, suggesting an extended downside deviation from its mean.

On the topside, the classic R1 pivot at €1,791.5 is the first reference above the current price; a sustained daily close through that level would put the R2 zone near €1,919.5 in view. The pivot point (P) at €1,656.0 sits above the last price and represents an initial overhead reference before R1 comes into focus.

To the downside, classic S1 at €1,528.0 is the nearest support reference per TradingView pivot data; a move below that level would bring S2 near €1,392.5 into scope. The Ichimoku base line (9, 26, 52, 26) sits at €1,595.8, currently above price, adding to the overhead supply picture (TradingView, 24 March 2026).

This is technical analysis for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.

Rheinmetall share price history (2024–2026)

RHM’s stock price has risen sharply over the past two years, driven by a structural shift in European defence spending following Russia's invasion of Ukraine and subsequent NATO rearmament commitments.

RHM closed at approximately €508.57 on 25 March 2024. From there, the stock climbed steadily through the second half of 2024, closing the year near €617.02 on 30 December 2024, as Germany and its allies began accelerating defence budget commitments. The stock then surged through early 2025, reaching a session high of €1,184.19 on 11 March 2025, before a brief pullback towards €940.34 on 7 April 2025 amid broader market volatility linked to US tariff announcements. RHM recovered strongly, climbing into the €1,900s by mid-September 2025 and touching an intraday high of €2,011.01 on 3 October 2025 - the peak within this two-year period. A gradual pullback followed through late 2025 and into 2026, with the stock closing at €1,555.07 on 30 December 2025.

RHM opened 2026 at €1,598.11 on 2 January, briefly rallied towards €1,967.98 on 19 January, then declined through February and March 2026 as full-year guidance disappointed some market participants. As of 24 March 2026, RHM closed at €1,469.98, approximately 8.0% down year to date but 11.6% higher year on year, and up approximately 189.0% over the full two-year period.

Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.

Rheinmetall (RHM): Capital.com analyst view

Rheinmetall's share price has more than doubled over the past two years, underpinned by a structural shift in European defence budgets following renewed geopolitical tensions and NATO rearmament commitments. Germany's 2026 federal budget allocates approximately €108 billion to defence, and Rheinmetall's record order backlog of €63.8 billion, up 36% year on year, reflects the scale of that demand pipeline, as reported by the company in its 2025 annual results on 11 March 2026. However, the same results also highlighted the tension between structural opportunity and near-term execution: full-year 2025 revenue of €9.9 billion missed consensus, 2026 guidance of €14.0–€14.5 billion came in below analyst forecasts of approximately €15 billion, and the shares fell sharply following the announcement, per Bloomberg (11 March 2026).

The bull case rests on sustained European rearmament, a growing multi-segment portfolio spanning ammunition, air defence, naval systems, and digital capabilities, and a management team that has guided for revenue potentially reaching €50 billion by 2030. The bear case centres on whether Rheinmetall can translate backlog into earnings efficiently: margin guidance of approximately 19% for 2026 offers only modest expansion over 2025's 18.5%, and Jefferies described the guidance as 'realistic but soft', per CNBC (11 March 2026). Any slowdown in government procurement timelines, a Ukraine ceasefire that reduces urgency, or cost overruns in capacity expansion could weigh on sentiment.

CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.

Capital.com’s client sentiment for Rheinmetall CFDs

As of 24 March 2026, Capital.com client positioning in Rheinmetall CFDs shows 94.3% buyers versus 5.7% sellers, putting buyers ahead by 88.6 percentage points and placing positioning firmly in heavy-buy, one-sided-towards-longs territory. This snapshot reflects open positions on Capital.com and can change.

Summary – Rheinmetall 2026

RHM trades at €1,466.02 as of 2:58pm UTC on 24 March 2026, down approximately 8.0% year to date but up around 11.6% year on year and approximately 189% over two years.
All major moving averages sit above the current price and signal sell; the 14-day relative strength index at 35.9 places RHM in lower-neutral territory without a clear recovery signal.
Key drivers include structural European rearmament spending, Germany's €108 billion 2026 defence budget, and Rheinmetall's record €63.8 billion order backlog reported on 11 March 2026.
Full-year 2025 results missed consensus, and 2026 guidance for an approximately 19% operating margin came in below analyst expectations, weighing on the share price after the results.

Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.

FAQ

Who owns the most Rheinmetall stock?

Rheinmetall’s shareholder base changes over time, so the largest holder can vary depending on the latest filings and market activity. In general, large institutional investors, asset managers and index-linked funds tend to hold the biggest stakes in major listed European companies such as Rheinmetall. Investors should check the company’s latest shareholder disclosures and annual report for the most up-to-date ownership data, as holdings can rise or fall and may not remain static for long.

What is the 5 year Rheinmetall share price forecast?

There is no single reliable five-year Rheinmetall share price forecast, because long-term projections depend on assumptions that can change significantly over time. These include defence spending trends, contract execution, profit margins, geopolitical developments and broader market conditions. While some analysts remain constructive because of Rheinmetall’s backlog and exposure to European rearmament, longer-term forecasts are inherently uncertain and should be treated as scenarios rather than precise expectations of future performance.

Is Rheinmetall a good stock to buy?

Whether Rheinmetall is a good stock to buy depends on an investor’s goals, risk tolerance and time horizon. The company has benefited from higher European defence spending and a growing order backlog, but that does not remove execution risk, valuation risk or the possibility of share price volatility. Recent results also showed that strong structural demand does not always translate into expectations being met. Any decision should be based on personal circumstances rather than on one company alone.

Could Rheinmetall stock go up or down?

Rheinmetall’s share price could move in either direction, depending on how company performance and external conditions develop. Supportive factors may include further defence budget growth, new contract wins and strong backlog conversion into revenue and earnings. On the other hand, weaker margin delivery, slower procurement timelines, changing geopolitical conditions or broader equity market weakness could weigh on the stock. Share prices can react quickly to new information, so both upside and downside remain possible.

Should I invest in Rheinmetall stock?

Only you can decide whether Rheinmetall fits your portfolio, and that decision should reflect your financial objectives, experience and ability to absorb losses. The stock offers exposure to a sector with strong structural demand drivers, but it also carries risks linked to valuation, earnings delivery and shifts in market sentiment. This means it may suit some investors more than others. This content is for information only and should not be taken as financial advice or a recommendation.

Can I trade Rheinmetall CFDs on Capital.com?

Yes, you can trade Rheinmetall CFDs on Capital.com. Trading share CFDs lets you speculate on price movements without owning the underlying asset and to take long or short positions. However, contracts for difference (CFDs) are traded on margin, and leverage amplifies both profits and losses. You should ensure you understand how CFD trading works, assess your risk tolerance, and recognise that losses can occur quickly.