Rheinmetall stock forecast: Record backlog, automotive exit

Rheinmetall is a German defence manufacturer that reported €9.9 billion in 2025 sales, a €63.8 billion backlog and plans to divest its automotive division to focus on defence. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Explore third-party RHM price targets and analysis.

By Dan Mitchellan hour ago

Photo: Shutterstock

Rheinmetall AG (RHM) is trading at €1,587.6 in early European trading at 10:36am UTC on 17 March 2026, within an intraday range of €1,582.9-€1,650.33. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.

Sentiment around RHM continues to be shaped by Europe's accelerating rearmament cycle: Germany has approved a defence budget of €108.2 billion for 2026, a record for the Federal Republic (Breaking Defense, 11 March 2026), while Rheinmetall itself reported full-year 2025 sales of €9.9 billion - up 29% year on year - and guided for 2026 revenues of €14 billion-€14.5 billion, representing up to 45% growth, with a record order backlog of €63.8 billion (Reuters, 11 March 2026). The company also announced plans to divest its automotive division to focus entirely on defence, further clarifying its strategic profile (Yahoo Finance, 11 March 2026).

Broader tailwinds from the EU's ReArm Europe initiative and sustained NATO spending commitments across the continent continue to underpin demand for the sector (The New York Times. 3 March 2026).

Rheinmetall stock forecast 2026–2030: Third-party price targets

As of 17 March 2026, third-party Rheinmetall stock predictions reflect a broadly constructive stance, tempered by post-earnings caution, as the company's full-year 2025 results and 2026 guidance fell short of consensus expectations on margin and free cash flow conversion.

Jefferies (post-earnings target trim)

Jefferies analyst Chloe Lemarie trims her 12-month RHM stock forecast to €2,020 from €2,060, retaining a Buy rating, after the company's 2026 free cash flow conversion guidance of over 40% of operating profit came in well below the 70-90% range the market had anticipated. Lemarie notes that the mid-term outlook remains underpinned by a substantial order backlog and flags that Rheinmetall now ranks among Jefferies' most attractively valued European defence names on 2028 earnings (TipRanks, 11 March 2026).

Goldman Sachs (Buy maintained)

Goldman Sachs analyst Sam Burgess maintains a Buy rating and holds his 12-month price target at €2,300, even as both revenue and profit missed consensus forecasts on 11 March 2026. The unchanged target reflects Goldman's view that execution shortfalls are near-term in nature, with the structural European rearmament cycle remaining intact amid sustained NATO procurement demand (MarketScreener, 11 March 2026).

MarketBeat (broker consensus roundup)

MarketBeat aggregates seven analyst ratings on the Rheinmetall ADR (RNMBY), recording one Strong Buy, five Buy, and one Sell, yielding an overall consensus of Moderate Buy. The single Sell reflects Zacks Research cutting its rating to Strong Sell on 9 February 2026, while Sanford C. Bernstein's concurrent upgrade to Outperform partly offsets that bearish signal (MarketBeat, 13 March 2026).

Ad Hoc News (multi-broker overview)

Ad Hoc News reports that major investment banks including Goldman Sachs and Barclays are supporting RHM's post-results recovery with price targets in the range of €2,175-€2,300, as Rheinmetall's announced pivot to a pure-play defence group - via the planned divestiture of its automotive division - overshadows the near-term guidance disappointment. The report notes that the share has partially rebounded from its 11 March sell-off as strategic clarity around the portfolio shift attracts renewed interest (Ad Hoc News, 17 March 2026).

Overall, Rheinmetall stock predictions published between 11 and 16 March 2026 cluster in the €2,000-€2,300 range, with the post-earnings revisions from Jefferies and Bernstein at the lower end and Goldman Sachs anchoring the upper end. The common thread is an intact structural growth case, offset by near-term concern over cash flow conversion and margin guidance.

Predictions and third-party forecasts are inherently uncertain, as they cannot fully account for unexpected market developments. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.

RHM stock price: Technical overview

The RHM stock price trades at €1,587.6 as of 10:36am UTC on 17 March 2026, with the price sitting below every major simple moving average on the daily chart. The 20/50/100/200-day SMAs stack at approximately €1,638 / €1,717 / €1,673 / €1,727, all signalling sell, which places the current price roughly €50 beneath the nearest moving average level and suggests a bearish short-term alignment.

Momentum is subdued: the 14-day relative strength index (RSI) reads 45.7, a neutral zone that reflects neither oversold exhaustion nor recovering buying pressure. The average directional index (ADX) sits at 14.4, below the 15 threshold, indicating a weak and directionless trend at present rather than a defined move in either direction.

On the topside, the classic R1 pivot at €1,791.5 is the first meaningful resistance reference; a convincing daily close above that level would put R2 near €1,919.5 in view. The 20-day SMA around €1,638 and the 30-day SMA near €1,630 act as intermediate resistance before price could challenge the R1 area.

On pullbacks, the classic pivot point (P) at €1,656.0 represents the first reference to watch; holding there would suggest the current session low is absorbing selling pressure. Losing that pivot would risk a move towards S1 at €1,528.0, with the 100-day SMA near €1,673 acting as overhead resistance rather than support given the current price structure (TradingView, 17 March 2026).

This is technical analysis for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.

Rheinmetall share price history (2024–2026)

RHM’s stock price opened March 2024 trading around €476, a figure that now looks modest given how dramatically the stock has moved since. At that point, the German defence group was already benefiting from rising NATO spending commitments, but the sharper acceleration was still ahead.

The stock climbed steadily through mid-2024, hovering in the €480-€560 range before pulling back to close the year near €617 in late December 2024. That represented a solid annual gain from the March 2024 base, driven by growing European defence budgets and Rheinmetall's expanding order book.

2025 brought far sharper moves. RHM surged from around €650 in January to peak intraday above €2,011 on 3 October 2025, as Germany's rearmament push and the broader European defence spending wave accelerated. A pullback followed into year-end, with the stock closing 2025 at approximately €1,555 on 30 December.

The new year opened with renewed momentum: RHM climbed back above €1,900 in mid-January 2026, briefly touching €1,967 on 19 January, before retreating following its annual results on 11 March 2026, when free cash flow guidance disappointed the market. RHM is trading at €1,587.6 on 17 March 2026, which is approximately 2.2% above the 17 March 2025 close of €1,376.4, but around 21.1% below the October 2025 intraday peak of €2,011.

Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.

Rheinmetall (RHM): Capital.com analyst view

Rheinmetall's price trajectory over the past two years reflects the scale of Europe's rearmament cycle, with the stock rising from around €476 in early 2024 to an intraday peak above €2,011 in October 2025 before retreating to current levels near €1,587.6. The company's pivot to a pure-play defence model, backed by a €63.8 billion order backlog and guidance for up to 45% revenue growth in 2026, supports a constructive medium-term case. However, the market's sharp reaction to the 11 March 2026 results, when free cash flow guidance fell short of consensus, illustrates how elevated expectations can amplify downside when execution disappoints by even a modest margin.

The structural tailwinds from German and NATO spending commitments appear durable, and management's projection of a €135 billion backlog by end-2026 provides meaningful revenue visibility. At the same time, a concentrated defence profile increases sensitivity to any reversal in government budget priorities, export restrictions, or shifts in geopolitical conditions that could reduce procurement urgency. Execution risks around new manufacturing capacity, the Luerssen naval acquisition, and ongoing regulatory processes also warrant monitoring alongside the growth outlook.

CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.

Capital.com’s client sentiment for Rheinmetall CFDs

As of 17 March 2026, Capital.com client positioning in Rheinmetall CFDs shows 94.6% buyers vs 5.4% sellers, putting buyers ahead by 89.2 percentage points and placing sentiment firmly in a heavy-buy, one-sided-towards-longs territory. This snapshot reflects open positions on Capital.com and can change rapidly as market conditions evolve.

Summary – Rheinmetall 2026

As of 10:36am UTC on 17 March 2026, RHM trades at €1,587.6, down sharply from an October 2025 intraday peak above €2,011 but well above early 2024 levels near €476.
All major simple moving averages sit above the current price, the 14-day RSI reads 45.7 in neutral territory, and the ADX at 14.4 signals a weak, directionless trend.
Key drivers include Europe's accelerating rearmament cycle, Germany's record defence budget, and Rheinmetall's planned pivot to a pure-play defence group via automotive divestiture.
The 11 March 2026 full-year results disappointed on free cash flow and margin guidance, triggering a sharp sell-off, though the stock has partially recovered since.
Rheinmetall guided for 2026 revenues of €14 billion-€14.5 billion, representing up to 45% year-on-year growth, underpinned by a record €63.8 billion order backlog.

Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.

FAQ

Who owns the most Rheinmetall stock?

Rheinmetall's shareholder base includes institutional investors, fund managers and other market participants, but ownership can change over time as holdings are disclosed, reduced or increased. In practice, the largest positions are often held by asset managers rather than individual investors. Because ownership data can shift from one reporting period to the next, traders usually check the latest company filings or market data sources for the most up-to-date breakdown.

What is the 5 year Rheinmetall share price forecast?

A five-year RHM stock forecast is inherently uncertain because it depends on factors that can change materially over time, including defence spending plans, order intake, margins, cash flow execution, regulation and broader market sentiment. In the near term, current analyst targets cited in this article cluster above the recent market price, but longer-term outcomes will depend on whether Rheinmetall converts its backlog into revenue efficiently and maintains profitability as capacity expands.

Is Rheinmetall a good stock to buy?

Whether Rheinmetall is considered a good stock to buy depends on an individual's objectives, time horizon and risk tolerance. The company has exposure to supportive themes such as higher European defence spending and a large order backlog, but that does not remove the risks linked to valuation, policy changes, execution and market expectations. Rather than treating it as a simple yes-or-no question, it may be more useful to weigh the potential opportunities against the specific risks involved.

Could Rheinmetall stock go up or down?

Rheinmetall's share price could move in either direction, depending on how investors assess new information. Upward moves may be supported by stronger-than-expected orders, improving margins, defence budget growth or more favourable sentiment towards the sector. Downward moves may follow weaker guidance, slower cash flow conversion, regulatory developments or broader equity market pressure. As this article shows, even strong structural themes do not prevent short-term volatility when expectations are high.

Should I invest in Rheinmetall stock?

Only you can decide whether Rheinmetall fits your portfolio, financial goals and appetite for risk. This article is intended to inform, not to provide personal investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell. A balanced approach would involve reviewing the company's growth outlook, valuation, technical picture and sector risks, then considering how much exposure you are comfortable taking. Some traders also compare direct share investing with CFD trading, depending on their strategy and time frame.

Can I trade Rheinmetall CFDs on Capital.com?

Yes, you can trade Rheinmetall CFDs on Capital.com. Trading share CFDs lets you speculate on price movements without owning the underlying asset and to take long or short positions. However, contracts for difference (CFDs) are traded on margin, and leverage amplifies both profits and losses. You should ensure you understand how CFD trading works, assess your risk tolerance, and recognise that losses can occur quickly.