Netflix stock forecast: Third-party price targets
Netflix Inc. is a US-listed media and streaming company on the Nasdaq, generating revenue from global subscriptions and advertising, with its share price influenced by earnings, strategy and broader market conditions. Explore third-party NFLX price targets and technical analysis.
Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) is trading around $81.01 in CFDs on Capital.com as of 2:53pm UTC on 11 February 2026, sitting close to the lower end of its intraday range between $80.87 and $84.26. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
The move follows Netflix’s earnings update in January 2026, where the company highlighted subscriber growth and monetisation initiatives such as paid sharing and its advertising-supported tier (CNBC, 20 January 2026). At the same time, broader communication services and technology shares have faced pressure amid softness in the S&P 500 communication services sector (Reuters, 21 January 2026). Sector commentary from major brokers continues to describe communication services as fundamentally supported yet sensitive to macroeconomic data and interest-rate expectations, leaving streaming stocks exposed to shifts in risk sentiment and index performance (Reuters, 9 February 2026).
Netflix stock forecast 2026–2030: Third-party price targets
As of 11 February 2026, third-party Netflix stock predictions cluster in the $94–$138 range over the next 12 months. This follows a period of target reductions after Q4 2025 results and the announcement of the proposed Warner Bros. transaction. While several brokers trimmed earlier expectations, views remain mixed, reflecting differing assumptions about growth, margins and deal-execution risks.
TD Cowen (rating maintained, target lowered)
TD Cowen maintains a Buy rating but lowered its Netflix price target to $115 from $142. The broker highlights deal-related uncertainty and valuation considerations following the stock’s pullback, while also pointing to earnings growth potential as Netflix scales advertising and integrates new assets (GuruFocus, 13 January 2026).
Rosenblatt Securities (more cautious stance)
Rosenblatt Securities cuts its Netflix price target to $94 from $105 while maintaining a Neutral rating, according to a GuruFocus brief. The update reflects a more cautious view of near-term performance and valuation after recent results, with several analysts revising revenue and margin assumptions during January (GuruFocus, 21 January 2026).
Canaccord Genuity and Wolfe Research (diverging assumptions)
Canaccord Genuity lowers its Netflix target to $125, while Wolfe Research reduces its target to $95, with both maintaining positive or Outperform-style ratings. The revisions refer to engagement trends, content-expense considerations and Netflix’s 2026 guidance, which includes plans for advertising revenue to ‘roughly double’ to about $3bn alongside higher operating and integration costs (Investing.com, 21 January 2026).
Needham (focus on slower growth outlook)
Needham reduces its Netflix price target to $120 from $150 but maintains a Buy rating. The firm cites guidance for slower revenue growth in 2026 compared with 2025 and refers to higher expected legal, regulatory and content costs. It also notes management’s outlook for margin expansion and potential pricing adjustments (Investing.com, 21 January 2026).
Barchart (street mean estimate)
Barchart places the mean 12-month NFLX stock forecast at approximately $113.87, with individual estimates ranging from about $95 to $138. These summaries note that the average target stood above prevailing prices at the time, as analysts balanced potential advertising growth and subscriber scale against deal-related uncertainty and valuation sensitivity to macro conditions (Yahoo Finance. 5 February 2026).
Predictions and third-party forecasts are inherently uncertain, as they cannot fully account for unexpected market developments. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
NFLX stock price: Technical overview
The NFLX stock price is trading around $81.01 as of 2:53pm UTC on 11 February 2026, below its short-term moving-average band, with the 20-, 50-, 100- and 200-day simple moving averages clustered near approximately 84, 91, 103 and 112 respectively. The 14-day RSI, at around 34, suggests lower-neutral momentum following the recent pullback, while an ADX reading near 29 indicates a developing trend backdrop rather than clearly range-bound conditions.
On the topside, the nearest classic pivot resistance level (R1) stands around 91.10, with R2 near 98.72. A sustained move above these levels would be required to shift the short-term technical structure. On the downside, initial support is located at the classic pivot near 86.52, while S1 at 78.90 provides a lower reference point if price continues to trade beneath the current moving-average cluster (TradingView, 11 February 2026)
Technical analysis is based on historical price data and is provided for informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to trade.
Netflix share price history (2024–2026)
Over the past two years, NFLX’s stock price has moved from the mid-$50s in early 2024 to above $130 in mid-2025, before easing back towards the low-$80s by February 2026. The stock traded around $55–$60 in February 2024, then advanced through the year, closing 2024 at approximately $89.61 on 31 December after trading between the mid-$60s and low-$90s during the second half.
In 2025, the share price extended higher, reaching above $130 in late June and trading largely in a $115–$125 range during the summer. It later declined towards $95 by year-end. By early 2026, the move turned more corrective, with prices falling from above $90 at the start of January to around $81.12 on 11 February 2026, returning to levels seen before the mid-2025 rally.
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
Netflix (NFLX): Capital.com analyst view
Operationally, Netflix reported revenue of approximately $45.2bn in 2025 and an operating margin close to 29.5%, alongside more than 325 million paid subscribers. These metrics formed part of the backdrop to earlier gains. However, the subsequent pullback illustrates how valuation can adjust when expectations around margins, spending or strategic transactions – such as the proposed Warner Bros. acquisition – become more prominent in investor analysis.
From a fundamental perspective, continued membership growth, expanding advertising revenue and high engagement levels may support longer-term earnings assumptions. Conversely, higher content and integration costs, ambitious 2026 targets and uncertainty around large-scale transactions introduce execution risks. Broader market volatility and changes in interest-rate expectations may also influence valuation multiples.
Capital.com’s client sentiment for Netflix CFDs
As of 11 February 2026, Capital.com client positioning in Netflix CFDs shows 95.6% buyers and 4.4% sellers, leaving buyers ahead by 91.2 percentage points. This data represents aggregated open CFD positions on the platform and may change as traders respond to price movements and new information.
Summary – Netflix 2026
- Netflix’s share price moved from the mid-$50s in early 2024 to above $130 in mid-2025, before declining towards the low-$80s by February 2026, illustrating significant price variation over the period.
- Technical indicators show price trading below its main 20-, 50-, 100- and 200-day moving averages, with the 14-day RSI in lower-neutral territory and the ADX indicating an established trend environment.
- Recent Q4 2025 results confirmed more than 325 million paid subscribers, revenue above $45bn and an operating margin in the high-20% range. While these figures provide context for the company’s scale and profitability, market pricing continues to reflect a balance between growth expectations, cost pressures and transaction-related uncertainty.
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
FAQ
Who owns the most Netflix stock?
Netflix is a publicly listed company, and its largest shareholders generally include major institutional investors, such as asset managers and investment funds. Firms like Vanguard, BlackRock and other global fund managers regularly feature among the top holders, alongside company executives and board members. Ownership levels change over time as institutions rebalance portfolios and insiders adjust their holdings. Investors can review the latest filings with US regulators to access updated disclosures on major shareholders.
What is the 5-year Netflix share price forecast?
There is no single, reliable five-year NFLX stock forecast. Most published analyst targets focus on a 12-month horizon and currently span a wide range, reflecting differing assumptions about subscriber growth, advertising revenue, margins and transaction-related risks. Longer-term projections depend on variables such as competitive dynamics, content spending, macroeconomic conditions and strategic execution. Any extended forecast should be approached with caution, as both market conditions and company fundamentals can change materially over time.
Is Netflix a good stock to buy?
Whether Netflix is a ‘good’ stock depends on an individual’s financial objectives, time horizon and tolerance for risk. The company has reported strong revenue, subscriber growth and operating margins in recent years, but its share price has also experienced periods of volatility. Valuation levels, competitive pressures, content costs and broader market conditions may all influence performance. Investors typically weigh potential returns against downside risks before making any investment decision.
Could Netflix stock go up or down?
Netflix’s share price can move in either direction, including over short time frames. Price movements may reflect earnings results, subscriber trends, advertising performance, strategic developments and broader shifts in equity markets. Technical factors and changes in investor positioning can also contribute to short-term fluctuations. As with any listed company, past performance does not guarantee future results, and volatility means the share price may rise or fall as expectations evolve.
Should I invest in Netflix stock?
Deciding whether to invest in Netflix shares requires careful consideration of your financial goals, level of experience and capacity for risk. Direct share ownership differs from trading derivatives such as CFDs, which involve leverage and carry a higher level of risk. It may be helpful to review company financial reports, analyst commentary and wider sector trends before taking action. If appropriate, consider seeking independent financial advice tailored to your personal circumstances.
Can I trade Netflix CFDs on Capital.com?
Yes, you can trade Netflix CFDs on Capital.com. Trading share CFDs lets you speculate on price movements without owning the underlying asset and to take long or short positions. However, contracts for difference (CFDs) are traded on margin, and leverage amplifies both profits and losses. You should ensure you understand how CFD trading works, assess your risk tolerance, and recognise that losses can occur quickly.