HENSOLDT stock forecast: FY2025 results and 2026 guidance

HENSOLDT (HAG) is a German defence electronics company; its shares have pulled back after FY2025 results showed €4.71bn order intake, €2,455m revenue and €89m net income, alongside 2026 guidance of €2,750m revenue and 18.5%–19% EBITDA margin.

By Dan Mitchell48 minutes ago

Camouflaged military armored vehicle displayed at a defense industry exhibition in front of a HENSOLDT booth — Photo: Shutterstock

Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.

HENSOLDT AG (HAG) is trading at €76.28 as of 2:13 pm UTC on 5 March 2026, moving within an intraday range of €75.42–€79.32; the stock is pulling back modestly from the €78–€79 area seen in late February, though it remains significantly above its 52-week low of €44.88 recorded in April 2025. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.

The retreat comes as investors digest HENSOLDT's full-year 2025 results, which showed a record order intake of €4.71 billion and revenue rising to €2,455 million, while net income dipped to €89 million from €108 million a year earlier (HENSOLDT, 26 February 2026). The company guided for approximately €2,750 million in 2026 revenue and an adjusted EBITDA margin of 18.5%–19%, with the midpoint roughly 2% below consensus estimates (Investing.com, 26 February 2026). Support for the broader European defence sector continues to reflect structural spending tailwinds, including Germany's approved 2026 defence budget and special fund totalling more than €108 billion (Reuters, 13 November 2026) – and the EU's Security Action for Europe (SAFE) initiative, a €150 billion loan programme designed to support increased defence investment through joint procurement (Council of the EU, 27 May 2025). HENSOLDT also recently secured orders worth over €100 million from Diehl Defence for TRML-4D air-defence radars under the European Sky Shield Initiative (HENSOLDT, 2 February 2026).

HENSOLDT stock forecast 2026–2030: Third-party price targets

As of 5 March 2026, third-party HENSOLDT stock predictions reflect a range of views shaped by Germany's structural defence spending uplift, the company's record 2025 order intake, and near-term concerns about margin delivery and cash conversion. The following summaries draw on broker notes and consensus data published in February and March 2026.

Warburg Research (broker upgrade)

Warburg Research upgrades HENSOLDT to Buy from Hold and raises its 12-month price target to €91, as analyst Christian Cohrs cites a more attractive entry point following a share price correction. The note flags expected solid full-year 2025 results across both business segments and continued order momentum as the key assumptions behind the revised target (The Globe and Mail, 17 February 2026).

Deutsche Bank (single-stock view)

Deutsche Bank analyst Christophe Menard maintains a Buy rating on HENSOLDT with a 12-month price target of €101. The bank attributes the stance to anticipated growth in defence electronics demand and Germany's expanding role in European security, while noting that capital-intensive programmes and execution risk remain part of the medium-term backdrop (The Globe and Mail, 28 February 2026).

MarketScreener (broker consensus)

MarketScreener aggregates 14 analyst estimates as of 5 March 2026, arriving at an average 12-month price target of €90, with a high estimate of €114 and a low of €57; the mean consensus rating is Hold. The wide spread between the high and low targets reflects differing assumptions over the pace of European rearmament, margin delivery on large radar programmes, and the trajectory of German defence budgets (MarketScreener, 5 March 2026).

Simply Wall St (consensus snapshot)

Simply Wall St reports a consensus HENSOLDT price target of approximately €96.18, with individual analyst estimates spanning €70 to €120 on a 12-month horizon. The service notes that the breadth of the range reflects differing views on earnings growth, profit margins and programme execution risk as European defence investment continues to scale (Simply Wall St, 3 March 2026).

Investing.com (aggregated analyst view)

Investing.com aggregates estimates from 11 analysts, placing the average 12-month price target at €82.18, with a high estimate of €117 and a low of €45; the overall consensus is Neutral, with 4 Buy, 3 Hold and 4 Sell ratings. The mixed rating distribution reflects uncertainty around near-term earnings execution, with the 2026 adjusted EBITDA margin guidance of 18.5%–19% sitting below some analyst expectations (Investing.com, 5 March 2026).

Takeaway: across broker and consensus sources, 12-month HENSOLDT stock predictions cluster broadly in the €82–€96 range, with Buy-rated houses anchored toward €91–€101 and more cautious estimates pulling the blended average lower amid shared concerns about margin delivery and execution on major defence programmes.

Predictions and third-party forecasts are inherently uncertain, as they cannot fully account for unexpected market developments. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.

HAG stock price: Technical overview

The HAG stock price trades at €76.28 as of 2:13 pm UTC on 5 March 2026, sitting below its entire moving-average stack, with the 20/50/100/200-day SMAs ranged at €80 / €82 / €83 / €89 respectively – all positioned above price, consistent with a weaker near-term trend. Price currently holds marginally above the Hull moving average (9) at €76.75, the only short-duration average aligned near current levels.

Momentum is softly bearish: the 14-day RSI sits at 42.35, placing it in neutral-to-lower territory without yet signalling oversold conditions, while the MACD reading of -1.40 adds a modest bearish bias. The ADX at 19.32 indicates the prevailing trend lacks strong directional conviction, leaving price in a weakly trending environment rather than a clear trending phase.

To the topside, the classic R1 pivot at €81.97 is the first meaningful reference to recover; a daily close above that level would put the R2 zone near €89.53 in view, though the dense MA cluster between €80–€83 represents a significant overhead shelf that would need to be absorbed first. The classic pivot (P) at €77.18 serves as the initial upside reference within the current session, with a hold above that level a minimum condition for any near-term stabilisation.

On pullbacks, the pivot point (P) at €77.18 is the first support reference; slip beneath that level would expose the S1 area near €69.62. Losing the S1 zone would risk a deeper move toward the S2 level at €64.83, with no meaningful MA support visible below current price given all long-duration averages sit significantly above (TradingView, 5 March 2026).

This is technical analysis for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.

HENSOLDT share price history (2024–2026)

HAG’s stock price closed at around €35.55 in early March 2024, before slipping to a two-year low near €28.32 in late September 2024 as sentiment around the stock remained subdued ahead of a broader European defence re-rating.

From that trough, HAG staged a substantial recovery through the first half of 2025, driven by rising expectations around German defence budget reform and growing NATO commitments across Europe. The stock dipped sharply again in early April 2025, touching an intraday low of €45.24 on 7 April 2025 amid broader market volatility, before bouncing decisively. From that April low, HAG surged more than 160% to reach an intraday peak of €117.82 on 6 October 2025, as investors priced in record order intake and structural growth in European defence electronics. The stock closed the month of October 2025 above €112, its highest close in the dataset.

A correction then followed, with HAG pulling back to close at €66.37 on 1 December 2025, before recovering back toward the €90–€97 range through January 2026. The stock has since eased again, sitting at €76.13 at the close on 5 March 2026, approximately flat year to date from the 2 January 2026 open of €75.13.

HAG closed at €76.13 on 5 March 2026, up approximately 114.2% versus the same period two years prior, though down roughly 35% from its October 2025 peak.

Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.

HENSOLDT (HAG): Capital.com analyst view

HENSOLDT's position as a specialist in radar, electronic warfare, and optronics systems places it at the centre of Europe's ongoing defence investment cycle. The company's 2025 order intake surged 62% year on year to €4.71 billion, and its order backlog stands at €8.83 billion, providing what management describes as a high degree of planning certainty for 2026 and beyond. On the other hand, 2025 full-year revenue of €2.46 billion came in slightly below analyst consensus, fourth-quarter performance was held back by supply-chain constraints in electronic components, and net income fell to €89 million from €108 million a year earlier, illustrating that translating a swollen order book into recognised revenue and earnings remains a key execution challenge.

For 2026, HENSOLDT targets revenue of approximately €2.75 billion and an adjusted EBITDA margin of 18.5%–19.0%. Management's 2026 guidance midpoint sits roughly 2% below some external consensus estimates, which contributed to a negative share price reaction following the results. Structurally, Germany's defence budget reform, the EU's SAFE initiative, and NATO procurement commitments across member states represent potential tailwinds for HENSOLDT's sensor and software-defined defence portfolio. However, prolonged procurement cycles, rising capital expenditure tied to a major facilities expansion, and ongoing SAP implementation costs extending through 2029 introduce near-term margin and cash flow risk that investors may weigh against the long-term growth narrative.

CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.

Capital.com’s client sentiment for HENSOLDT CFDs

As of 5 March 2026, Capital.com client positioning in HENSOLDT CFDs stands at 98.3% long vs 1.7% short, putting buyers ahead by 96.6 percentage points and placing sentiment firmly in heavy-buy, long-skewed territory. This snapshot reflects open positions on Capital.com at the time of writing and can change rapidly as market conditions evolve.

Client sentiment is not a reliable indicator of future price movements.

Summary – HENSOLDT 2026

HAG trades at €76.28 as of 2:13 pm UTC on 5 March 2026, down roughly 35% from its October 2025 peak near €117.82 but up approximately 114% over two years.
Technical indicators are broadly bearish: price sits below all key moving averages, RSI is neutral at 42.35, and MACD carries a mild bearish bias with ADX suggesting a weak trend.
Key drivers include Germany's expanding defence budget, the EU's SAFE rearmament initiative, and NATO procurement commitments, all of which underpin structural demand for HENSOLDT's radar and electronic warfare systems.
Counterbalancing risks include a 2026 margin guidance midpoint below analyst consensus, ongoing SAP implementation costs through 2029, and supply-chain constraints that weighed on Q4 2025 revenue delivery.
HENSOLDT posted record 2025 order intake of €4.71 billion and an €8.83 billion backlog, though full-year net income fell to €89 million from €108 million, and the results release triggered a negative share price reaction.

Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.

FAQ

Who owns the most HENSOLDT stock?

HENSOLDT has a mixed shareholder base that typically includes institutional investors, strategic holders and retail shareholders, and the largest shareholder can change as filings update and positions move. Because ownership stakes may shift over time, the most reliable way to confirm the current top holder is to check recent regulatory disclosures and the company’s latest shareholder information. This article focuses on price drivers and analyst targets rather than live ownership rankings.

What is the 5 year HENSOLDT share price forecast?

There is no single, standard five-year HAG stock forecast that the market treats as definitive. Most published targets are 12-month price targets, and even those vary widely depending on assumptions about order conversion, margins, procurement timing and budgets. Over a five-year horizon, outcomes can diverge further as guidance, contract wins, and execution risks evolve. For that reason, longer-term forecasts are usually best treated as scenarios, not precise predictions.

Is HENSOLDT a good stock to buy?

Whether HENSOLDT is 'good' to buy depends on your objectives, time horizon and risk tolerance, rather than a single metric. The company has pointed to a large order backlog and sits in a sector supported by multi-year defence spending plans, but it has also highlighted challenges such as margin delivery, cash conversion and programme execution. This article is for information only and isn’t a recommendation. If you’re considering exposure, it may help to compare both the upside drivers and the risks.

Could HENSOLDT stock go up or down?

Yes. HENSOLDT’s share price can move in either direction and may react to earnings results, guidance updates, order announcements, budget decisions and broader market conditions. Company-specific factors such as delivery timing, supply-chain constraints, capital expenditure and implementation costs can also influence expectations. Technical indicators may describe current momentum, but they don’t remove uncertainty. Because CFDs are leveraged products, price moves—up or down—can have a magnified impact on outcomes.

Should I invest in HENSOLDT stock?

Only you can decide, and it’s important to separate information from advice. This article summarises factors that market participants often watch—such as analyst targets, technical levels, guidance and sector spending themes—alongside risks including execution and margin pressure. If you’re unsure, you may want to consider independent research or regulated guidance. Remember that CFD trading involves leverage and can lead to losses, so it may not suit every investor.

Can I trade HENSOLDT (HAG) CFDs on Capital.com?

Yes, you can trade HENSOLDT CFDs on Capital.com. Trading share CFDs lets you speculate on price movements without owning the underlying asset and to take long or short positions. However, contracts for difference (CFDs) are traded on margin, and leverage amplifies both profits and losses. You should ensure you understand how CFD trading works, assess your risk tolerance, and recognise that losses can occur quickly.