Microsoft stock forecast: Third-party price targets
Microsoft is a US technology company listed on Nasdaq, generating revenue from software, cloud services and enterprise solutions, and its share price is closely tracked by equity and CFD traders. Explore third-party MSFT price targets and technical analysis.
Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) is trading around $415.25 in early US hours, within an intraday range of $403.10–$416.88 on Capital.com’s USD-denominated stock CFD feed as of 11:31am on 10 February 2026 (UTC). Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
The move follows Microsoft’s fiscal Q2 2026 results, which showed revenue of about $81.3 billion and earnings per share of $4.14, both above analyst expectations, alongside Microsoft Cloud revenue exceeding $50 billion (CNBC, 28 January 2026). Trading is also unfolding amid continued focus on US technology shares and Nasdaq 100 futures, which have benefited from a broader rebound across major US equity indices as the earnings season progresses (Yahoo Finance, 9 February 2026).
Microsoft stock forecast 2026–2030: Third-party price targets
As of 10 February 2026, third-party Microsoft stock predictions show a wide dispersion, as banks and research firms reassess assumptions following the company’s latest quarterly earnings and AI-related capital expenditure updates. The briefings below summarise selected targets, timeframes and stated drivers from this period.
Morgan Stanley (house view)
Morgan Stanley maintains an Overweight rating and a $650 12-month price target for Microsoft, citing its CIO survey on software spending intentions. The bank says the target rests on expectations that Microsoft could benefit from forecast 2026 software spending growth and continued demand across its cloud and productivity franchises (Finviz, 16 January 2026).
Citigroup (research report)
Citigroup cuts its Microsoft price target to $635 from $660, while retaining a buy rating. Citi notes that the lower target follows the post-earnings share price decline and reflects strong AI and cloud fundamentals, set against investor concerns around record capital expenditure and moderating Azure growth (MarketBeat, 29 January 2026).
Wolfe Research (research note)
Wolfe Research reduces its Microsoft price target to $530 from $625, keeping an 'outperform' rating. The firm says the revised target incorporates the Q2 FY2026 earnings beat and sizeable commercial backlog, while also factoring in market concerns about elevated AI capex and slightly slower Azure growth guidance (MarketBeat, 30 January 2026).
Stifel (downgrade and target change)
Stifel analyst Brad Reback downgrades Microsoft to Hold and sets a price target of $392. The firm notes that Reback’s target, cut from a prior $540 level mentioned in earlier coverage, reflects increasing caution around the near-term outlook for cloud and AI growth (The Globe and Mail, 6 February 2026).
Daiwa Capital Markets (target cut)
Daiwa Capital Markets lowers its Microsoft price target to $600 from $630, while keeping a buy rating. The report says the revised target reflects continued conviction in Microsoft’s AI and cloud strategy after its Q2 beat, tempered by a more measured view on margins given roughly $37.5 billion in AI-related capital expenditure (MarketBeat, 4 February 2026).
Predictions and third-party forecasts are inherently uncertain, as they cannot fully account for unexpected market developments. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
MSFT stock price: Technical overview
The MSFT stock price is trading around $415.25 on Capital.com’s feed as of 11:31am on 10 February 2026 (UTC), positioned below its short- and medium-term moving averages following a pullback from recent highs. On the daily chart, the simple 20-, 50-, 100- and 200-day moving averages are clustered around roughly $445, $468, $490 and $487 respectively, leaving price beneath a broad resistance band. The broader trend remains established, with the ADX(14) near 34. The 14-day RSI is around 36, in lower-neutral territory, which is consistent with a market that has cooled from recent highs rather than one showing extreme oversold conditions.
On the topside, the first area to watch is the classic R1 pivot near $473, where a sustained daily close above that zone could bring the R2 region around $516 back into focus. On pullbacks, initial support sits around the classic pivot near $447, with the S1 level near $404 acting as the next notable downside reference if that area gives way (TradingView, 10 February 2026).
This technical analysis is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.
Microsoft share price history (2024–2026)
MSFT’s stock price has seen a strong run over the past two years, with several swings along the way as big-tech and AI-related themes moved in and out of focus. The stock was trading near $415 in mid-February 2024, before pushing higher through the summer and autumn. This period included a series of prices above $520 and a peak zone north of $550 by late October 2025.
After that high, the tone shifted. From November 2025 into January 2026, MSFT largely traded between the mid-$400s and high-$480s before selling off sharply in late January. This included a drop from prices above $480 on 23 January 2026 to lows near $391 by 6 February 2026, marking one of the sharper pullbacks of the period.
Despite these moves, MSFT finished 2024 around $422 and climbed to just under $484 by the end of 2025, marking year-on-year gains as the wider market continued to focus on earnings and cloud demand. As of 10 February 2026, Microsoft closed at $415.65, leaving it broadly in line with levels seen in early 2024 but still well below the record area reached in the second half of 2025, which helps put the scale of that earlier rally into context.
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
Microsoft (MSFT): Capital.com analyst view
Microsoft’s share price over the past two years reflects shifting market views on big tech, cloud demand and the rapid build-out of artificial intelligence infrastructure. Periods of steady gains and fresh highs during 2024 and much of 2025 were followed by sharper swings into early 2026, as strong earnings and cloud performance were weighed against concerns around heavier capital expenditure and valuation sensitivity. For some traders, this combination of solid operational results and increased volatility can present opportunity, while for others it underlines that even large, diversified technology companies can experience sizeable short-term moves when expectations adjust.
Looking ahead, many market participants continue to track Microsoft as a bellwether for AI and cloud adoption. This includes watching for potential support if enterprise spending and AI workloads remain robust, while also recognising that shifts in regulation, sentiment or broader technology trends could place renewed pressure on the shares.
Capital.com’s client sentiment for Microsoft CFDs
As of 10 February 2026, Capital.com client positioning in Microsoft CFDs shows 96.8% buyers versus 3.2% sellers, resulting in a heavy, one-sided skew toward long positions and a buyer-seller difference of around 93.6 percentage points. This snapshot reflects open positions on the platform at a single point in time and can change quickly.
Summary – Microsoft 2026
- Microsoft’s CFD price on Capital.com is quoted around $415, having pulled back from late-2025 highs above $550 and year-end levels near $484.
- Over the past two years, MSFT has seen both strong rallies and sharp corrections, with 2024 ending around $422 and 2025 closing higher before more volatile trading emerged in early 2026.
- Daily technical indicators show price trading below a broad 20-, 50-, 100- and 200-day moving-average cluster, with RSI in the mid-30s and an established trend backdrop reflected in ADX readings.
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
FAQ
Who owns most Microsoft shares?
Microsoft has a broad and diversified shareholder base. The largest holders are typically major institutional investors, such as global asset managers and pension funds, which hold shares on behalf of clients and index-tracking products. These positions can change over time as funds rebalance portfolios or respond to market conditions. Microsoft’s founders and senior executives also hold shares, but no single individual or institution holds a controlling majority stake.
What is the five-year Microsoft share price forecast?
There is no single, agreed five-year MSFT stock forecast. Long-term projections vary widely and depend on assumptions around factors such as cloud adoption, artificial intelligence investment, competition, regulation and broader market conditions. Analyst price targets are generally shorter-term and are revised frequently. For traders, this uncertainty highlights that longer-term outcomes can differ materially from expectations formed today.
Is Microsoft a good stock to buy?
Whether Microsoft is considered a 'good' stock depends on an individual’s objectives, risk tolerance and time horizon. Some market participants focus on its scale, recurring revenues and role in cloud and AI markets, while others place greater weight on valuation levels, capital expenditure and sensitivity to broader technology sentiment. Share prices can reflect both favourable developments and emerging risks, meaning different traders may interpret the same information in different ways.
Could Microsoft’s share price go up or down?
Microsoft’s share price can move higher or lower in response to earnings results, changes in expectations for cloud and AI spending, shifts in interest rates, regulatory developments or broader equity market sentiment. Even large, established companies can experience sharp short-term moves when expectations change. Past performance does not predict future price action, and periods of strong gains may be followed by consolidation or pullbacks, and vice versa.
Should I invest in Microsoft shares?
Deciding whether to invest in Microsoft shares is a personal decision that depends on your financial situation, objectives and understanding of risk. This article provides market context and analysis but does not constitute investment advice. Before making any decision, many people consider factors such as time horizon, diversification and tolerance for potential losses, and may choose to seek independent financial advice where appropriate.
Can I trade Microsoft CFDs on Capital.com?
Yes, you can trade Microsoft CFDs on Capital.com. Trading share CFDs lets you speculate on price movements without owning the underlying asset and to take long or short positions. However, contracts for difference (CFDs) are traded on margin, and leverage amplifies both profits and losses. You should ensure you understand how CFD trading works, assess your risk tolerance, and recognise that losses can occur quickly.