Leonardo stock forecast: Iveco Defence acquisition

Leonardo is an Italian aerospace and defence group listed on Borsa Italiana, with its March 2026 industrial plan and Iveco Defence acquisition shaping recent share price moves. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Explore third-party LDO price targets & technical analysis.

By Dan Mitchellan hour ago

Leonardo aerospace company display featuring aircraft models, branding, and exhibition materials, representing the defense and aviation industry — Photo: Shutterstock

Leonardo S.p.A. (LDO) is trading at €56.90 as of 1:03pm UTC on 24 March 2026, within an intraday range of €56.42–€60.23. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.

Shares have retreated amid a broader consolidation in European defence equities after a sharp re-rating in early 2026, during which the STOXX Europe Targeted Defence Index gained approximately 14% year to date through end-January (Janus Henderson, 4 February 2026). Leonardo's own industrial plan, presented on 11 March 2026, outlined a revenue target of €30 billion by 2030, with new FY2025 orders rising 14.5% year on year to €23.8 billion (Leonardo, 12 March 2026), while the company completed the acquisition of Iveco Group's Defence Business for €1.6 billion on 18 March 2026, adding armoured vehicle and ASTRA-brand capabilities to its portfolio (Leonardo, 18 March 2026).

Leonardo stock forecast 2026–2030: Third-party price targets

As of 24 March 2026, third-party Leonardo stock predictions reflect a broadly constructive sell-side consensus following the company's FY2025 results and its updated 2026–2030 industrial plan, both released in March 2026.

Barclays (upgrade to Overweight)

Barclays upgraded Leonardo from Equalweight to Overweight, lifting its 12-month LDO stock forecast to €68 from €53, with analyst Afonso Osorio citing expectations that the company will double cash flow over five years at 20-year-high conversion rates. The note adds that the stock was trading at approximately a 14% discount to the sector's three-year forward EV/EBIT average of around 15 times at the time of the revision, with the Aerostructures partnership resolution flagged as a key de-risking catalyst (Yahoo Finance, 9 March 2026).

Equita (target raise post-industrial plan)

Equita raised its 12-month price target for Leonardo to €71 from €64 after the company presented its 2026–2030 industrial plan on 12 March 2026, maintaining a Buy rating. The revision follows Leonardo's disclosure of cumulative order guidance of €142 billion over the plan period, implying average annual order growth of approximately 6.1%, with the new Michelangelo fighter jet programme cited as a strategic upside driver (MarketScreener, 16 March 2026).

J.P. Morgan (highest published target)

J.P. Morgan lifted its Leonardo price target to €77 from €66 following the industrial plan presentation, retaining an Overweight-equivalent stance and setting the highest target in the published analyst panel at the time. The revision reflects J.P. Morgan's view that cumulative revenue guidance of €126 billion over the five-year plan period implies a more material re-rating of the franchise than previously assumed (The Globe and Mail, 15 March 2026).

MarketScreener (sell-side consensus aggregate)

MarketScreener aggregates 18 analysts covering Leonardo on the Borsa Italiana listing, reporting an average 12-month price target of €67.42, a high of €77, and a low of €57, with a mean consensus rating of Outperform. The distribution skews towards Buy and Outperform ratings, reflecting a wave of upward target revisions following the FY2025 results and the 12 March industrial plan presentation (MarketScreener, 18 March 2026).

MarketBeat (ADR consensus snapshot)

MarketBeat reports that Leonardo's OTC-listed ADR (FINMY) carried a Moderate Buy consensus, comprising one Strong Buy, two Buy, and four Hold ratings across the active analyst panel, with the ADR reaching a new 52-week high of $37.20 on that date. The 50-day moving average of $33.92 sat well below the last traded price of $37.06, with the gap between the 50-day and 200-day ($30.84) averages reflecting the scale of the re-rating through early 2026 (MarketBeat, 18 March 2026).

Takeaway: across these sources, Leonardo stock predictions range from €57 to €77, with the consensus average at €67.42. The common threads are FY2025 order execution, the five-year revenue and order plan disclosed on 12 March 2026, and structural European defence budget expansion, while the spread between the low and high estimates reflects differing views on valuation stretch following a sharp year-to-date re-rating.

Predictions and third-party forecasts are inherently uncertain, as they cannot fully account for unexpected market developments. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.

LDO stock price: Technical overview

On the daily chart, LDO stock price trades at €56.90 as of 1:03pm UTC on 24 March 2026, sitting below a layered moving-average shelf where the 20-, 50-, 100-, and 200-day simple moving averages (SMAs) run at approximately €60, €58, €54, and €52 respectively. Price is currently beneath the 20- and 50-day SMAs, which signal a sell bias on the daily timeframe, though the 100- and 200-day SMAs both sit below the current price and register buy signals, indicating that the longer-term structural trend remains intact.

Momentum is mixed to soft: the 14-day relative strength index (RSI) reads 42.64, in lower-neutral territory, consistent with a market lacking near-term directional conviction rather than one in active distribution. The average directional index (ADX) at 18.80 confirms that a clear trend is not yet established in either direction, suggesting the current move is more consistent with consolidation than with a trending decline.

To the topside, the classic R1 pivot at €60.25 is the first level to reclaim; a convincing daily close above this level would put the R2 area near €63.69 back in view, with the R3 region at €71.08 serving as a more distant reference if momentum re-establishes. The Ichimoku base line at €60.40 sits close to R1 and reinforces that zone as near-term resistance.

On pullbacks, the classic pivot point at €56.30 is the initial reference and sits close to the current last price of €56.90, making it an immediate area to watch. Below that, S1 at €52.86 is the next meaningful support, broadly aligned with the gap between the 100- and 200-day SMA shelf at €54–€52; losing that band on a sustained daily close would risk a deeper move towards the S2 area near €48.91.

This is technical analysis for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.

(TradingView, 24 March 2026)

Leonardo share price history (2024–2026)

LDO’s stock price spent much of early 2024 trading in the low-to-mid €20s, closing at €22.98 on 25 March 2024 before drifting lower into the autumn. The stock opened 2025 at €26.07 and then staged a strong run through the year, gaining roughly 88.8% across 2025 as European defence spending commitments accelerated and Leonardo's order book expanded.

That rally hit a pause in early April 2025, when LDO slid to a yearly low of €39.33 on 7 April 2025 amid a broader market sell-off, but it recovered sharply, closing 2025 at €49.23 – nearly double where it began the year.

Momentum carried into 2026, with the stock opening the year at €51.46 and surging to a session high of €66.37 on 12 March 2026, supported by strong FY2025 results and the company's updated 2026–2030 industrial plan. A period of consolidation followed.

LDO closed at €57.06 on 24 March 2026, approximately 10.9% up year to date and 27.3% up year on year.

Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.

Leonardo (LDO): Capital.com analyst view

Leonardo's price performance over the past two years reflects a significant re-rating of the European defence sector, with the stock gaining roughly 88.8% across 2025 alone as NATO member states accelerated spending commitments and the company delivered consistent order intake growth. The March 2026 industrial plan update, outlining cumulative revenue targets of €126 billion through 2030, reinforced that narrative and pushed LDO to a session high of €66.37 on 12 March 2026. However, the subsequent pullback towards the €57 area illustrates that valuations had moved quickly, and some analysts have flagged the stock as trading at a premium to longer-term discounted cash flow estimates, suggesting the re-rating may already reflect a degree of optimism around sustained defence budget growth.

Looking ahead, the stock faces a two-sided debate: further increases in European rearmament spending and new programme wins, such as the Michelangelo fighter jet, could support the more constructive case, while a shift in geopolitical conditions, defence budget constraints, or execution risk on the Iveco Defence integration could weigh on sentiment. The wide analyst target range of €57–€77 captures this uncertainty clearly.

CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.

Capital.com’s client sentiment for Leonardo CFDs

As of 24 March 2026, Capital.com client positioning in Leonardo CFDs reads 95% buyers vs 5% sellers, which puts buyers ahead by 90 percentage points and places sentiment firmly in a one-sided long bias. This snapshot reflects open positions on Capital.com and can change.

Summary – Leonardo 2026

Leonardo (LDO) trades at €56.90 as of 1:03pm UTC on 24 March 2026, up roughly 10.9% year to date and 27.3% year on year.
Technical indicators are mixed: the 14-day RSI sits at 42.64 (lower-neutral), and price trades below the 20- and 50-day SMAs, while the 100- and 200-day SMAs remain below current price and signal buy.
The classic pivot point at €56.30 marks immediate support; resistance sits at the R1 pivot near €60.25, with the 20- and 50-day SMA cluster broadly reinforcing that zone.
Key drivers include European rearmament spending, strong FY2025 order intake (up 14.5% year on year), and Leonardo's updated 2026–2030 industrial plan targeting €126 billion in cumulative revenue.
Recent corporate activity includes the completed acquisition of Iveco Group's Defence Business for €1.6 billion and the GEM Elettronica acquisition, both finalised in March 2026.

Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.

FAQ

Who owns the most Leonardo stock?

Leonardo’s shareholder base includes a controlling stake held by the Italian Ministry of Economy and Finance, which has historically been the company’s largest shareholder. That state ownership reflects Leonardo’s strategic role in aerospace and defence. However, ownership levels can change over time, and other institutional investors and market participants also hold shares. Traders often review the latest company filings or investor relations updates for the most current breakdown.

What is the 5 year Leonardo share price forecast?

A five-year LDO stock forecast is highly uncertain because it depends on factors such as defence spending, contract execution, margin delivery, acquisitions, and broader market valuations. While the company’s 2026–2030 industrial plan provides long-term revenue and order targets, analyst forecasts in the article focus on a 12-month horizon rather than a full five-year view. Longer-term projections should therefore be treated as scenarios, not fixed outcomes or guarantees.

Is Leonardo a good stock to buy?

Whether Leonardo is a good stock to buy depends on an individual’s goals, risk tolerance, time horizon, and view of the defence sector. The article outlines supportive factors, including order growth, the updated industrial plan, and European rearmament trends, but it also highlights valuation risk, execution risk, and uncertainty after a sharp re-rating. That means the stock may appeal to some investors while looking less compelling to others at current levels.

Could Leonardo stock go up or down?

Leonardo stock could move in either direction, depending on how company-specific and sector-wide factors develop. Further contract wins, stronger order intake, and continued defence budget expansion could support the share price. On the other hand, integration risks, changing geopolitical conditions, valuation pressure, or weaker sentiment across defence equities could weigh on performance. The wide spread in published analyst targets and the current mixed technical picture both reflect that two-sided outlook.

Should I invest in Leonardo stock?

Only you can decide whether Leonardo fits your investment objectives, and this article does not provide personal investment advice. Leonardo may be relevant to those researching European defence exposure, but the stock also carries risks linked to valuation, execution, and broader market conditions. Before making any investment decision, it is important to consider your financial circumstances, risk tolerance, and research process, and, where appropriate, seek independent professional advice.

Can I trade Leonardo CFDs on Capital.com?

Yes, you can trade Leonardo CFDs on Capital.com. Trading share CFDs lets you speculate on price movements without owning the underlying asset and to take long or short positions. However, contracts for difference (CFDs) are traded on margin, and leverage amplifies both profits and losses. You should ensure you understand how CFD trading works, assess your risk tolerance, and recognise that losses can occur quickly.