HENSOLDT stock forecast: Record Q1 order book
HENSOLDT is a German defence electronics company whose Q1 2026 revenue rose 25% to €496m, with its order book reaching €9.80bn by end-March. Explore third-party HAG price targets and technical analysis.
HENSOLDT AG (HAG) is trading at €80.23 in early European trading as of 10:30am UTC on 6 May 2026, moving within an intraday range of €78.84–€82.16. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
Revenue for Q1 2026 rose 25% year-on-year to €496 million, driven by orders to equip infantry fighting vehicles and Eurofighter Mk1 contract extensions (Global Banking & Finance, 6 May 2026). Hensoldt's order book reached a record €9.80 billion by end-March, up from €6.93 billion a year earlier, while the company confirmed full-year revenue guidance of approximately €2.75 billion (Reuters, 6 May 2026). The results also follow China's 24 April ban on dual-use exports to Hensoldt and six other European entities, a move Beijing linked to arms sales to Taiwan, though Hensoldt stated it did not expect the restrictions to have a material impact on its operations (Reuters, 24 April 2026).
HENSOLDT stock forecast 2026–2030: Third-party price targets
As of 6 May 2026, third-party HENSOLDT stock predictions reflect a range of views shaped by European rearmament momentum, order visibility, and near-term margin execution risk.
J.P. Morgan (Neutral reiterated)
J.P. Morgan analyst David H Perry reiterated a Neutral rating on HENSOLDT with a 12-month price target of €85. Perry maintained his cautious stance as the bank flagged limited margin headroom within management's 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance range of 18.5%–19% (MarketScreener, 6 May 2026).
Jefferies (Buy reiterated)
Jefferies analyst Chloe Lemarie reiterated a Buy rating on HENSOLDT with a 12-month price target of €90. Lemarie cited sustained order flow and what she viewed as conservative free cash flow guidance for 2026 amid rising European air-defence demand (MarketScreener, 21 April 2026).
Stifel (initiation at Buy)
Stifel analyst Thomas Mordelle initiated coverage of HENSOLDT with a Buy rating and a 12-month price target of €90. Mordelle argued that the company was entering a new positioning phase within Europe's defence architecture, with the approximately €48 billion proposal pipeline supporting near-term order visibility (MarketScreener, 17 April 2026).
Deutsche Bank (Buy reiterated, highest single target)
Deutsche Bank analyst Christophe Menard reiterated a Buy rating on HENSOLDT with a 12-month price target of €101 – the highest in the current broker pool. Menard maintained the above-consensus target amid record order intake growth and continued demand for defence electronics across NATO member states (MarketScreener, 16 April 2026).
MarketScreener (consensus overview)
MarketScreener aggregated coverage from 15 analysts on HENSOLDT, arriving at a mean consensus of Outperform with an average 12-month price target of €90.70 and a last close of €80.78. The consensus range reflects differing views on execution risk, with individual targets spanning from the high €80s to €101 (MarketScreener, 6 May 2026).
Predictions and third-party forecasts are inherently uncertain, as they cannot fully account for unexpected market developments. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
HAG stock price: Technical overview
The HAG stock price trades at €80.23 in early European trading as of 10:30am UTC on 6 May 2026, within an intraday range of €78.84–€82.16. The price holds above the short-to-medium-term simple moving average cluster – the 20-, 50- and 100-day SMAs at approximately €79, €78 and €79, respectively – although the 200-day SMA at approximately €85 remains overhead, registering a sell signal on TradingView’s moving average summary.
The broader moving average picture is constructive below that long-term level: all EMAs and SMAs from the 10-day through to the 100-day are aligned to the buy side, according to TradingView data. The Hull moving average (9) at approximately €81 sits fractionally above the last price, generating a sell signal that flags near-term resistance around that level. The 14-day RSI reads 54.12, placing momentum in neutral-to-upper-neutral territory, while the average directional index (14) at 12.39 indicates a weak trend environment. Together, these indicators suggest the current move lacks strong directional conviction.
On the topside, the classic R1 pivot at approximately €84 is the nearest reference above the last price. A daily close through that level could bring the R2 area near €90 into view. To the downside, the classic pivot point at approximately €78 offers initial support, with the 100-day SMA shelf around €79 as another nearby reference level. A sustained move beneath that cluster could open a path towards the S1 area near €71, according to TradingView pivot data (TradingView, 6 May 2026).
This technical analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.
HENSOLDT earnings
In its full-year 2025 results, published on 26 February 2026, HENSOLDT reported revenue of €2.46 billion, up nearly 10% year-on-year, with adjusted EBITDA rising 12% to €452 million and the margin reaching 18.4%, ahead of the company's guidance of approximately 18%. Adjusted free cash flow rose 39% to €347 million, with cash conversion exceeding 100% of adjusted EBITDA. Net profit, however, fell 18% to €86 million from €106 million, as income taxes tripled following the normalisation of deferred tax positions, reducing earnings per share to €0.77 from €0.93 (HENSOLDT IR, 26 February 2026).
Q1 2026 results, released on 6 May 2026, added to the growth picture: revenue rose over 25% year-on-year to €496 million, order intake more than doubled to €1.48 billion, and the book-to-bill ratio reached 3x, pushing the order book to a record €9.80 billion (Global Banking & Finance, 6 May 2026). Adjusted EBITDA grew to €44 million – a 47% increase year-on-year – with the margin improving to 8.9% from 7.6% a year earlier, although Q1 margins remain seasonally lower than full-year levels (Smartkarma, 6 May 2026).
HENSOLDT share price history (2024–2026)
HAG’s stock price traded in a relatively tight range of roughly €28–€39 through most of mid-2024, with little to suggest the scale of the move that would follow. The stock began climbing in late 2024, closing the year at €34.50 on 30 December, as European governments accelerated defence budget commitments in response to continued pressure from NATO allies to increase military spending.
The rally intensified through the first half of 2025. HAG pushed from the low €60s in March into the €90–€114 range by October, touching an intraday high of €117.82 on 6 October 2025 – its highest point in the dataset. That surge coincided with a broader re-rating of European defence stocks amid continued geopolitical uncertainty and a succession of major order announcements from Hensoldt.
A correction followed. The stock pulled back sharply from November 2025 through early 2026, sliding from above €95 towards the €66–€75 range by late March 2026, as investor sentiment towards European defence names turned more cautious and profit-taking weighed on the sector.
HAG has since partially recovered, closing at €80.29 on 6 May 2026 – up approximately 133% compared with its 7 May 2025 close of €69.40, but still around 32% below its October 2025 peak.
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Share prices are indicative and may differ from live market prices.
HENSOLDT (HAG): Capital.com analyst view
HENSOLDT’s performance over the past two years reflects the broader re-rating of European defence stocks, with HAG climbing from the low-to-mid €30s in mid-2024 to an intraday high above €117 in October 2025. Accelerating NATO rearmament commitments and a record order backlog, which reached €9.80bn by end-March 2026, were among the key factors behind that move. However, the ascent also carries risk: the sharp pullback from the October 2025 peak to the mid €60s by April 2026 shows how quickly sentiment can shift, whether through profit-taking, geopolitical de-escalation, or concerns about execution on Hensoldt’s planned €1bn-plus capacity expansion.
China’s April 2026 dual-use export restrictions, which targeted Hensoldt alongside six other European defence entities, add another layer of complexity. While the company has indicated that it does not expect a material financial impact, any disruption to component supply chains or future technology access could weigh on margins. At the same time, the geopolitical tension that prompted the restrictions continues to support the broader European defence spending narrative. First-quarter 2026 revenue growth of 25% year-on-year points to solid near-term execution, although higher near-term costs and the pace of free cash flow conversion remain points of debate among analysts.
Capital.com’s client sentiment for HENSOLDT CFDs
As of 6 May 2026, Capital.com client positioning in HENSOLDT CFDs shows 98.1% long versus 1.9% short. That puts buyers ahead by 96.2 percentage points and places sentiment in heavy-buy territory, with positioning strongly one-sided towards long positions. This snapshot reflects open positions on Capital.com at the time of writing and can change.
Summary – HENSOLDT 2026
- HAG trades at €80.23 as of 10:30am UTC on 6 May 2026, up roughly 133% year-on-year but approximately 32% below its October 2025 intraday peak of €117.82.
- Key drivers include accelerating European rearmament spending, Hensoldt’s record €9.80bn order backlog, and Q1 2026 revenue growth of 25% year-on-year to €496m.
- China added Hensoldt to its dual-use export restriction list on 24 April 2026 alongside six other European defence firms. Hensoldt stated that it does not expect a material financial impact.
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
FAQ
Who owns the most HENSOLDT stock?
HENSOLDT’s shareholder base includes both strategic and public-market investors. MarketScreener data lists government ownership at around 25.1%, Leonardo SpA at around 22.8%, institutional investors at about 12.2%, and the remainder as other or unidentified holdings. This means the German state, through its investment interests, appears to be the largest shareholder group, with Leonardo also holding a significant strategic stake. Ownership figures can change as shareholders adjust their positions.
What is the five-year HENSOLDT share price forecast?
Five-year HAG stock forecasts should be treated with caution, as they depend on assumptions that can change materially over time. The article focuses on 12-month broker targets, which range from €85 to €101, with MarketScreener’s average target at €90.70. Longer-term projections would depend on factors such as European defence spending, order conversion, margins, free cash flow, supply-chain risks and broader market sentiment. Forecasts aren’t a reliable indicator of future performance.
Is HENSOLDT a good stock to buy?
Whether HENSOLDT is a good stock to buy depends on an individual trader’s objectives, risk tolerance and view of the defence sector. The article notes several supportive factors, including a record €9.80bn order backlog, Q1 2026 revenue growth of 25% year-on-year and continued European rearmament discussions. It also highlights risks, including margin execution, profit-taking, valuation sensitivity and China’s dual-use export restrictions. These points should inform research, but they don’t constitute investment advice.
Could HENSOLDT stock go up or down?
HENSOLDT stock could move in either direction. A move higher could be supported by further order intake, stronger-than-expected revenue growth, margin resilience or continued European defence spending. A move lower could follow profit-taking, weaker sentiment towards defence stocks, supply-chain disruption, margin pressure or a broader market pullback. Technical indicators in the article also show a mixed picture, with short-to-medium-term moving averages constructive but the 200-day SMA still acting as overhead resistance.
Should I invest in HENSOLDT stock?
The decision to invest in HENSOLDT stock should be based on your own research, financial situation and risk appetite. HENSOLDT has benefited from defence-sector momentum and a growing order book, but its share price has also shown material volatility, falling sharply after its October 2025 peak before partially recovering. Investors and CFD traders should consider both the potential drivers and the risks, including leverage risk when trading CFDs. This content is informational only, not financial advice.
Can I trade HENSOLDT CFDs on Capital.com?
Yes, you can trade HENSOLDT CFDs on Capital.com. Trading share CFDs lets you speculate on price movements without owning the underlying asset and to take long or short positions. However, contracts for difference (CFDs) are traded on margin, and leverage amplifies both profits and losses. You should ensure you understand how CFD trading works, assess your risk tolerance, and recognise that losses can occur quickly.