Ferrari stock forecast: Q1 2026 earnings and guidance
Ferrari reported Q1 2026 net revenues of €1.85bn on 5 May, reaffirming full-year guidance as deliveries fell ahead of new model launches. Explore third-party RACE price targets and technical analysis. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
Ferrari N.V. (RACE) is trading at $338.85 as of 11:59am UTC on 6 May 2026, within a session range of $322.97–$332.88. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
Price action follows Ferrari's Q1 2026 earnings release on 5 May, in which the company reported net revenues of €1.848 billion, up 3% year-on-year, or 6% at constant currency (CNBC, 5 May 2026). Management reaffirmed full-year 2026 guidance of approximately €7.5 billion in revenue, despite a 4.4% year-on-year decline in deliveries to 3,436 units, which it attributed to a deliberate production slowdown ahead of new model transitions (Reuters, 5 May 2026). Ferrari also confirmed the launch of its first all-electric vehicle, adding a product catalyst to the broader narrative, while US tariff uncertainty and a softer macro backdrop for luxury goods continue to frame sentiment across the premium automotive sector (Yahoo Finance, 5 May 2026).
Third-party Ferrari outlook: Q1 guidance, delivery risks
As of 6 May 2026, third-party Ferrari stock predictions reflect a range of broker assessments shaped by Q1 2026 earnings, delivery data, confirmed full-year guidance, and ongoing US tariff and Gulf region logistics disruptions.
Bernstein (reiteration)
Bernstein reiterates an Outperform rating with a $410 price target on Ferrari, noting the company's decision to bring forward US deliveries, including higher shipments of F80 and SF90XX specials, to partially offset a suspension of consignments to Gulf region markets. The call rests on Ferrari's full-year 2026 guidance for an EBIT margin of at least 29.5%, which the firm views as a credible floor amid the uncertain trade environment (Investing.com, 10 April 2026).
MarketBeat (consensus overview)
MarketBeat aggregates ratings from 16 brokerages covering Ferrari, placing the average 12-month price target at $469.06, within a range of $410–$570. The consensus rating stands at Moderate Buy, with three strong buy, eight buy, and five hold ratings. The most recently cited actions include UBS maintaining a Buy rating at $483 and JPMorgan maintaining an Overweight rating at $447 (MarketBeat, 28 April 2026).
MarketBeat (institutional activity)
MarketBeat notes that Exane Asset Management increased its stake in Ferrari by approximately 100,191% in Q4, adding 12,023 shares valued at $4.50m and lifting Ferrari to 1.0% of its portfolio. The filing coincides with Ferrari's ex-dividend date of 21 April 2026 for its increased annual dividend of $3.62 per share, payable on 5 May 2026 (MarketBeat, 20 April 2026).
The Globe and Mail (buyback and target)
The Globe and Mail reports Ferrari's progress on its multi-year €3.50bn share buyback programme, with the second €250m tranche launched on 13 April 2026 after the first tranche was completed on 10 April. The most recent analyst rating cited on the platform is a Buy with a €430 price target, with analysts viewing the buyback programme as a continued signal of management confidence in Ferrari's long-term earnings capacity (The Globe and Mail, 28 April 2026).
MarketBeat (earnings guidance update)
MarketBeat reports that Ferrari updated its full-year 2026 earnings guidance on 5 May 2026, reiterating its targets for adjusted diluted EPS of at least €9.45 and revenues of approximately €7.50bn. The guidance confirmation follows Q1 2026 results showing net revenues of €1.85bn, up 3% year-on-year, with the adjusted EBITDA margin at 38.8% (MarketBeat, 5 May 2026).
Predictions and third-party forecasts are inherently uncertain, as they cannot fully account for unexpected market developments. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
Ferrari Q1 2026 earnings
Ferrari reported Q1 2026 net revenues of €1.85bn on 5 May 2026, up 3% year-on-year, or 6% at constant currency. Adjusted diluted EPS came in at €2.33, against an LSEG consensus estimate of €2.30, while the EBIT margin stood at 29.7%. Industrial free cash flow reached €653m, and the adjusted EBITDA margin came in at 38.8%, supported by a richer product mix and higher personalisation revenue, with total deliveries declining 4.4% year-on-year to 3,436 units, below a consensus estimate of 3,520 units (CNBC, 5 May 2026).
For full-year 2026, Ferrari reaffirmed guidance of approximately €7.50bn in net revenues and adjusted diluted EPS of at least €9.45, while full-year EPS guidance of approximately €11 came in below a sell-side consensus of roughly €11.35 (MarketBeat, 5 May 2026). CEO Benedetto Vigna attributed Q1's lower delivery volume to a deliberate production slowdown ahead of new model transitions, and noted that Middle East conflict, a region representing approximately 5% of business, had limited impact due to geographic reallocation of shipments (Yahoo Finance, 5 May 2026). The stock dipped following the release as markets focused on the guidance shortfall relative to consensus rather than the Q1 beat (Reuters, 5 May 2026).
RACE stock price: Technical overview
The RACE stock price trades at $338.85 as of 11:59am UTC on 6 May 2026, below its key moving-average cluster. The 20-, 50-, 100- and 200-day SMAs stand at roughly $352, $346, $353 and $398, respectively. Price is also beneath the Ichimoku base line near $351 and the volume weighted moving average near $351, pointing to broad overhead pressure across near- and long-term averages, according to TradingView data.
Momentum indicators remain soft. The 14-day RSI registers 36.20, in lower-neutral territory and approaching oversold conditions, while the average directional index at 11.95 points to a weak, directionless trend. The Hull moving average at $334.57 sits below the last price, while the stochastic %K at 6.45 is also deep in oversold territory.
On the upside, the classic pivot point at $352.46 is the first level to reclaim; a daily close above that level would put the R1 level near $374 back in view. On the downside, the S1 classic pivot at $325.26 is the nearest support reference, with the S2 level at $303.23 the next area to watch if $325 gives way (TradingView, 6 May 2026).
This technical analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.
Ferrari (RACE): Capital.com analyst view
Ferrari’s price performance in early 2026 has been shaped by competing forces. The company’s Q1 2026 results, released on 5 May, showed net revenues up 3% year-on-year at €1.85bn, while management reaffirmed full-year 2026 revenue guidance of approximately €7.50bn and an EBIT margin floor of 29.5%. The ongoing €3.50bn share buyback programme provides an additional layer of corporate demand beneath the market price.
However, the 25% US auto import tariff raises the landed cost of every Ferrari delivered to its largest single market, while a temporary suspension of Gulf region shipments, now largely resolved according to the company’s CEO, weighed on near-term delivery volumes. Total Q1 shipments declined 4.4% year-on-year to 3,436 units.
The stock has pulled back sharply from its 2025 highs and was trading below all major long-term moving averages at the time of writing. While this de-rating may reflect macro and trade-policy concerns, it also places the stock closer to valuation levels that some analysts consider more reflective of Ferrari’s structural earnings profile. That said, weaker macro conditions, further tariff escalation, or softer-than-expected luxury demand could sustain pressure on the share price.
Summary – Ferrari 2026
- Ferrari (RACE) trades at $338.85 as of 11:59am UTC on 6 May 2026, well below its 2025 highs above $519 and all major long-term moving averages.
- Key price drivers include Ferrari’s deliberate Q1 delivery slowdown ahead of new model launches, the 25% US auto import tariff, and a temporary suspension of Gulf region shipments that the company says is now largely resolved.
- Q1 2026 results, released on 5 May, showed net revenues up 3% year-on-year at €1.85bn, with adjusted EPS of €2.33 beating estimates, though full-year EPS guidance of approximately €11 came in below sell-side consensus near €11.35.
- Ferrari reaffirmed full-year 2026 guidance of approximately €7.50bn in revenue and an EBIT margin of at least 29.5%, while the ongoing €3.50bn buyback programme continues to provide a degree of structural support.
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
FAQ
Who owns the most Ferrari stock?
Ferrari’s largest shareholder is Exor, the holding company controlled by the Agnelli family. Exor and Piero Ferrari remain the company’s two main long-term shareholders, with a renewed shareholder agreement running from January 2026 to January 2029. The rest of Ferrari’s shares are held by institutional and retail investors through its public listings. Ownership can change over time, so investors should check Ferrari’s latest filings before making any decisions.
What is the five-year Ferrari share price forecast?
A five-year Ferrari share price forecast depends on assumptions around earnings growth, pricing power, luxury demand, tariffs, product launches and broader equity market conditions. The article focuses on shorter-term third-party analyst targets, which range from $410–$570, with a 16-analyst consensus of $469.06. Longer-term forecasts can vary widely and shouldn’t be treated as reliable predictions. Markets can move in either direction, and past performance doesn’t indicate future returns.
Is Ferrari a good stock to buy?
Whether Ferrari is a good stock to buy depends on an individual’s objectives, risk tolerance and view of the company’s valuation. The article notes supportive factors, including confirmed 2026 guidance, high margins, a €3.50bn buyback programme and analyst confidence in Ferrari’s structural earnings profile. However, risks remain, including US tariff exposure, weaker luxury demand, delivery disruption and pressure from broader market conditions. This isn’t financial advice or a recommendation.
Could Ferrari stock go up or down?
Yes. Ferrari stock could move either way, depending on company-specific and macroeconomic factors. Upside drivers may include delivery recovery, resilient pricing, progress on new model launches, and continued buyback activity. Downside risks include further tariff pressure, weaker luxury demand, lower-than-expected deliveries, or a broader equity market sell-off. Technical indicators in the article point to pressure below key moving averages, but technical analysis doesn’t predict future performance with certainty.
Should I invest in Ferrari stock?
The decision to invest in Ferrari stock should be based on independent research, personal financial circumstances and, where appropriate, professional advice. The article outlines both supportive and risk factors, including Ferrari’s reaffirmed guidance, margin profile and buyback programme, as well as tariff exposure, delivery disruption and valuation concerns. Forecasts and analyst targets can help frame market expectations, but they don’t guarantee future performance or remove the risk of loss.
Can I trade Ferrari CFDs on Capital.com?
Yes, you can trade Ferrari CFDs on Capital.com. Trading share CFDs lets you speculate on price movements without owning the underlying asset and to take long or short positions. However, contracts for difference (CFDs) are traded on margin, and leverage amplifies both profits and losses. You should ensure you understand how CFD trading works, assess your risk tolerance, and recognise that losses can occur quickly.