BPER Banca stock forecast: Record 2025 results and merger progress
BPER Banca is an Italian banking group listed on the Borsa Italiana, which reported record results for 2025 and is advancing its acquisition of Popolare di Sondrio, with merger completion targeted for end-April 2026. Explore third-party BPE price targets and technical analysis.
BPER Banca S.p.A. (BPE) is trading around €12.58 as of 12:19pm UTC on 23 February 2026, moving within an intraday range of €11.97–€12.57 on Capital.com’s feed. The price action keeps the shares near the upper end of that session band, following recent gains that have accompanied progress on its integration plans with Banca Popolare di Sondrio. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
Recent updates highlight stronger-than-expected full-year revenue and reiterate merger timing towards end-April 2026 (Reuters, 5 February 2026). Additional attention comes from developments at major shareholder Unipol, which recently reported higher profit and dividends while flagging the advancing BPER–Popolare di Sondrio merger as a key factor, as well as from broader sector coverage of Italian banking consolidation (Reuters, 20 February 2026).
BPER Banca stock forecast 2026–2030: Third-party price targets
As of 23 February 2026, third-party BPER Banca stock predictions indicate 12-month views, with most sources pointing to a Buy-leaning stance. These figures are indicative and rely on assumptions about earnings, integration progress and the Italian macroeconomic backdrop. Predictions and third-party forecasts are frequently inaccurate, as they cannot account for unforeseen developments and do not guarantee future performance.
Investing.com (consensus sample)
Investing.com reports that, based on projections from 12 analysts polled over the past three months, the average 12-month BPER Banca target price stands at approximately €13.68, with a high estimate of €14.60 and a low estimate of €11.79, alongside an overall Buy consensus. The service states that these figures aggregate differing views on revenue, net interest income and asset quality as analysts assess the enlarged group’s earnings capacity within Italy’s banking backdrop (Investing.com, 23 February 2026).
Fintel (forecast overview)
Fintel indicates that the average one-year BPE stock forecast was €13.35, with forecasts ranging from €11.91 to €14.91 and a Buy-leaning recommendation profile. It attributes this spread to varying analyst assumptions on 2026 revenue, profitability and capital allocation as the bank continues integrating Popolare di Sondrio (Fintel, 23 February 2026).
Kepler Capital (updated target)
Kepler Capital reiterates a Buy stance, lifting its 12-month target price to €14.20, with the shares then quoted around €11.93. The analyst cites slightly higher estimates and anticipated benefits from capital deployment and integration of Popolare di Sondrio within the context of ongoing Italian banking consolidation (Kepler Capital, 21 February 2026).
Simply Wall St (valuation-implied level)
Simply Wall St writes that its discounted cash flow model implies a value of about €13.83 per BPER Banca share, compared with a market price around €12.64. It frames this as a valuation-based fair value estimate rather than a formal 12-month broker target. The article states that the model reflects assumptions about future cash flows, earnings growth and risk premia following a stronger-than-expected Q4 earnings performance (Simply Wall St, 8 February 2026).
Predictions and third-party forecasts are inherently uncertain, as they cannot fully account for unexpected market developments. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
BPE stock price: Technical overview
The BPE stock price is holding above its short- and medium-term moving-average cluster on the daily chart, with the 20/50/100/200-day simple moving averages (SMAs) at approximately 12.2 / 11.8 / 11.0 / 9.6 as of 12:19pm UTC on 23 February 2026. The 14-day RSI stands near 60.5, within the upper-neutral band, while an ADX reading around 21.4 suggests a trend is present but not strongly established. Together, these indicators point to ongoing upward momentum while price remains above the main moving-average band, though without signalling an extended trend.
On the upside, the nearest classic pivot resistance (R1) sits around 12.39, with R2 near 12.93 coming into view if the price records a sustained daily close above that initial barrier. On pullbacks, the classic pivot at 11.92 marks initial support, followed by the 100-day SMA near 11.0 as the first notable moving-average shelf. A daily close below that zone would place focus on the S1 area around 11.38 (TradingView, 23 February 2026).
This technical analysis is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.
BPER Banca share price history (2024–2026)
BPE’s stock price has risen over the past two years, moving from around €3.82 at the close on 26 February 2024 to approximately €12.58 on 23 February 2026. Over that period, the stock advanced in stages. It first moved through the €5 area by mid-2024, then traded in the €7–€8 zone through spring 2025 before climbing above €10 in the final quarter of the year.
Into early 2026, the move extended further, with BPER Banca trading largely between €11.50 and €12.80 in February as the shares remained close to recent highs. As with any historical performance data, past price movements do not indicate future results.
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
BPER Banca (BPE): Capital.com analyst view
BPER Banca’s share price has recorded a marked two-year advance, moving from below €4 in early 2024 to around €12.58 by 23 February 2026. The move developed in phases, with periods of consolidation around the €5 and €8 areas before the stock entered double-digit territory and more recently traded in the €11.50–€12.80 range.
Market participants often link this repricing to expectations of improved earnings capacity and scale following the acquisition of Banca Popolare di Sondrio. However, the current level may also increase sensitivity to factors such as quarterly results, integration progress or shifts in the macroeconomic backdrop.
Key drivers include the execution of the Popolare di Sondrio merger, Italy’s interest-rate environment and overall conditions in the domestic banking sector. Supportive elements, such as higher net interest income, cost synergies and capital generation, form part of the constructive case. By contrast, a change in the rate cycle, deterioration in credit quality or slower-than-expected integration could weigh on sentiment. In this context, the prevailing price region reflects a balance between anticipated operational benefits and recognised sector-specific and macroeconomic risks.
Summary – BPER Banca 2026
- As of 12:19pm UTC on 23 February 2026, BPER Banca trades near €12.58, up from approximately €3.80 in February 2024 following a multi-stage advance.
- Daily technical indicators show the price above its 20/50/100/200-day moving averages, with RSI in the upper-neutral band and trend strength moderate rather than elevated.
- Key themes include the enlarged group’s earnings profile after the Popolare di Sondrio transaction, Italy’s interest-rate backdrop and sentiment towards domestic banks and credit conditions.
- Recent coverage has centred on BPER’s 2025 results, integration milestones for the Popolare di Sondrio merger and updates from major shareholder Unipol, alongside developments in the wider Italian banking sector.
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
FAQ
Who owns the most BPER Banca stock?
Public disclosures indicate that Unipol Group is among the largest shareholders in BPER Banca, reflecting its strategic involvement in the Italian banking sector. As a listed company, BPER Banca also has a broad shareholder base that includes institutional investors and retail participants. Ownership structures can shift over time due to market transactions, corporate actions or updated regulatory filings, so investors typically consult the latest company reports and exchange announcements for current details.
What is the 5 year BPER Banca share price forecast?
There is no widely recognised five-year consensus BPE stock forecast, as most analyst coverage concentrates on a 12-month horizon. Longer-term projections depend on variables such as Italy’s economic outlook, interest-rate trends, credit quality and the integration of Popolare di Sondrio. Because these factors can evolve in unpredictable ways, extended forecasts carry additional uncertainty and should be viewed as indicative scenarios rather than reliable predictions.
Is BPER Banca a good stock to buy?
Whether BPER Banca represents a suitable investment depends on your financial objectives, time horizon and tolerance for risk. Some analysts focus on its enlarged scale and potential merger-related efficiencies, while others emphasise sector-specific risks, including credit conditions, regulatory changes and interest-rate shifts. Banking shares can respond quickly to macroeconomic developments, so any assessment should weigh both potential upside and downside considerations without relying on a single indicator.
Could BPER Banca stock go up or down?
Like any publicly traded share, BPER Banca’s stock price can move higher or lower, sometimes within short periods. Earnings announcements, merger milestones, changes in Italy’s interest-rate environment and broader sentiment towards European banks may all influence price movements. Technical factors, including moving averages and pivot levels, can shape short-term trading behaviour, but they do not remove the possibility of volatility or unexpected events affecting the share price.
Should I invest in BPER Banca stock?
A decision to invest in BPER Banca shares should reflect your overall financial position, investment goals and capacity to absorb losses. While banking stocks can offer exposure to earnings growth and dividend streams, they also involve market, credit and economic risks. This content provides general market information only and does not constitute investment advice. You may wish to carry out your own research or consult an independent financial adviser before making any investment decision.
Can I trade BPER Banca CFDs on Capital.com?
Yes, you can trade BPER Banca CFDs on Capital.com. Trading share CFDs lets you speculate on price movements without owning the underlying asset and to take long or short positions. However, contracts for difference (CFDs) are traded on margin, and leverage amplifies both profits and losses. You should ensure you understand how CFD trading works, assess your risk tolerance, and recognise that losses can occur quickly.