BCA MPS stock forecast: ECB approves Mediobanca merger

Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena is an Italian bank listed in Milan. In September 2026, the ECB approved its merger with Mediobanca as further proposed deals remained under review. Explore third-party BMPS targets and technicals. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.

By Dan Mitchell07:13 (UTC), 6 October 2026 Updated

Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena S.p.A. (BMPS) traded at €11.59 at 1:09pm UTC on 7 September 2026, within Capital.com’s €11.48–€11.61 intraday range. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.

Recent news has centred on consolidation. The European Central Bank approved MPS’s merger with recently acquired Mediobanca on 3 September, while MPS had approved separate all-share offers for Banco BPM and Banca Generali, processes that remain subject to shareholder and regulatory approvals (Reuters, 3 September 2026; Reuters, 21 August 2026).

Intesa Sanpaolo shareholders were scheduled to vote on its proposed acquisition of MPS on 10 September, while Italy’s Treasury had said it would not sell its remaining 4.8% MPS holding before the M&A process was concluded (Reuters, 7 September 2026; Reuters, 25 August 2026).

Third-party BMPS outlook: M&A, H1 Results

As of 7 September 2026, third-party Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena stock predictions show BMPS price targets of €11.30–€12.40. These are third-party forward-looking estimates, not statements of future performance.

Santander (individual broker target)

Santander maintains an Outperform rating and a €11.30 price target for BMPS, as reported on 25 August 2026. The broker cites the proposed all-share offers for Banco BPM and Banca Generali, while noting the execution risks involved in integrating the transactions (MarketScreener, 25 August 2026).

MarketScreener (consensus snapshot)

MarketScreener reports an average BMPS target price of €11.77 from six analysts, with an Outperform consensus, based on data displayed on 26 August 2026. The data was published alongside reporting on MPS’s voluntary public exchange offer for Banco BPM (MarketScreener, 26 August 2026).

Equita (individual broker target)

Equita maintains a Buy rating and a €12.40 BMPS price target, as reported on 28 August 2026. Its assessment follows MPS’s announced Banca Generali exchange offer and compares the proposed transaction with Intesa Sanpaolo’s offer for MPS (MarketScreener, 28 August 2026).

MarketScreener (consensus comparison)

MarketScreener shows a six-analyst Outperform consensus with a €11.77 average price target, based on data available on 28 August 2026. The snapshot accompanied reporting on

MPS’s proposed acquisition by Intesa Sanpaolo and related governance commitments. (MarketScreener, 28 August 2026).

Takeaway: Individual targets captured during the period ranged from €11.30 to €12.40, while MarketScreener’s six-analyst consensus stood at €11.77. The accompanying analysis focused on MPS’s proposed transactions, integration requirements and execution risks.

Predictions and third-party forecasts are inherently uncertain, as they cannot fully account for unexpected market developments. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.

Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena latest earnings

Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena’s latest reported results cover the second quarter and first half of 2026, approved by its board on 7 August 2026. The bank reported second-quarter net profit of €610m, up 20.2% from the first quarter and 27.3% year on year. First-half net profit exceeded €1.1bn, rising 25.3% year on year, while total revenues increased 4.1% to €4.02bn (Banca MPS, 7 August 2026).

Banca MPS attributed the revenue increase to higher net fee and commission income and other income from financial operations, with net interest income broadly stable over the first half.

The bank reported a 42.9% cost-to-income ratio for the first half, compared with 45.9% a year earlier, while its fully loaded common equity tier 1 (CET1) ratio stood at 16.3% as at 30 June 2026. CET1 measures a bank’s highest-quality loss-absorbing capital relative to risk-weighted assets. MPS’s financial calendar lists its interim report on operations for the third quarter of 2026 as the next scheduled reporting event, on 4 November 2026.

Its 7 August release also noted that the first-half figures were prepared on a consolidated basis, with comparative 2025 profit-and-loss figures restated on a like-for-like basis to include Mediobanca Group data before its acquisition.

BMPS stock price: technical overview

As of 1:09pm UTC on 7 September 2026, the BMPS stock price traded at €11.59, marginally above its 10-day simple moving average (SMA) of €11.52 and below its 20-day SMA of €11.69. The 20-, 50-, 100- and 200-day SMAs stood at approximately €11.69, €11.53, €10.55 and €9.42, respectively. The 20-day SMA remained above the 50-day measure, although BMPS traded below the shorter-term average.

TradingView placed the 14-day relative strength index at 49.65, a neutral reading, while the 14-day average directional index stood at 19.33 and did not meet the stated threshold for an established trend.

Above the quoted price, the classic R1 pivot stood at €12, followed by R2 at €12.42, while Camarilla R1 was closer at €11.64. Momentum indicators were mixed: the MACD level stood at −0.01, the 10-period momentum reading at −0.05 and the stochastic %K at 36.71, according to TradingView.

On the downside, classic S1 stood at €11.23 and S2 at €10.90, with the 100-day SMA lower at approximately €10.55. TradingView’s 20-day volume-weighted moving average stood at €11.65 and its nine-day Hull moving average at €11.58. The classic central pivot, at €11.66, remained just above the quoted price (TradingView, 7 September 2026).

This is technical analysis for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.

Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena share price history (2024–2026)

BMPS’s stock price traded near €4.94 in early September 2024 before moving unevenly through the autumn. It fell to €4.79 on 3 October, recovered above €5.40 later that month and ended 2024 at €6.81.

BMPS started 2025 at €6.69 and reached €7.15 on 20 January before falling towards €6.15 in mid-February. It recovered to €7.83 on 19 March, then fell to €5.90 on 9 April. The stock subsequently rose to €8.44 on 14 May and traded mostly within a €6.80–€8.40 range during the summer before closing 2025 at €9.16.

In 2026, BMPS reached €9.49 on 2 January before retreating to €6.98 on 19 March. It then rose from €7.38 on 7 April to €12.14 on 18 August, the highest intraday level in the supplied two-year data. BMPS closed at €11.58 on 7 September 2026, approximately 138.6% above its 9 September 2024 close of €4.94 and 4.1% below its August intraday high.

Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Share prices are indicative and may differ from live market prices.

Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena (BMPS): Capital.com analyst view

Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena closed at €11.58 on 7 September 2026, after rising from €8.97 on 5 June to an intraday high of €12.14 on 18 August in the supplied price series. Over the same period, MPS announced all-share offers for Banco BPM and Banca Generali, while the European Central Bank approved its integration with Mediobanca (Reuters, 21 August 2026; Reuters, 3 September 2026).

These developments may influence how market participants assess the potential scale, revenue mix and cost structure of a combined group. Progress on the transactions or clearer terms could support sentiment, while delays, regulatory conditions, shareholder opposition or higher integration costs could weigh on it.

The shares had eased from their August high by 7 September, trading within a €11.48–€11.61 intraday range at 1:09pm UTC. MPS’s latest first-half results included €1.12bn of net profit (Banca MPS, 7 August 2026), while future earnings may remain sensitive to interest-rate conditions, credit quality, funding costs and fee income. More supportive operating conditions could help earnings expectations, while weaker margins, higher funding costs or deteriorating credit quality could have the opposite effect.

CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.

Capital.com’s client sentiment for Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena CFDs

As of 7 September 2026, Capital.com client positioning in Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena CFDs shows 93.3% buyers and 6.7% sellers, a difference of 86.6 percentage points. This snapshot reflects open positions on Capital.com and can change.

Summary – Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena 2026

As of 1:09pm UTC on 7 September 2026, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena traded at €11.59, within a €11.48–€11.61 intraday range.
According to TradingView data, technical indicators were mixed, with the 14-day relative strength index at 49.65 and the price below the 20-day SMA of approximately €11.69.
MPS’s proposed transactions, earnings, interest-rate conditions, credit quality and funding costs could influence the price in either direction.
Recent developments include European Central Bank approval for the Mediobanca merger and MPS’s all-share offers for Banco BPM and Banca Generali.

Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.

FAQ

Who owns the most Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena stock?

The article does not identify Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena’s largest shareholder. It does note that Italy’s Treasury retains a 4.8% holding and has said it will not sell this stake before the current M&A process concludes. MPS’s ownership structure may change as its proposed transactions involving Mediobanca, Banco BPM and Banca Generali progress, subject to shareholder and regulatory approvals.

What is the five-year Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena share price forecast?

The article does not provide a five-year BMPS stock forecast. The third-party analyst targets cited cover a much shorter horizon, ranging from €11.30 to €12.40, with MarketScreener showing a six-analyst consensus target of €11.77. Longer-term forecasts involve greater uncertainty because earnings, interest rates, credit conditions, funding costs and the outcome of MPS’s proposed transactions could all affect the share price over time.

Is Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena a good stock to buy?

Whether BMPS is suitable to buy depends on an individual’s circumstances, objectives and risk tolerance, so the article does not make a recommendation. Recent factors include MPS’s first-half earnings, proposed transactions and banking-sector conditions. These could affect the shares positively or negatively. Third-party analyst targets also vary, and forecasts are not guarantees. Traders should consider both potential opportunities and risks before making any financial decision.

Could Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena stock go up or down?

Yes. BMPS shares could move in either direction as market expectations change. Progress on proposed transactions, clearer deal terms or supportive earnings conditions could contribute to higher prices. Conversely, regulatory delays, shareholder opposition, integration costs, weaker margins, higher funding costs or deteriorating credit quality could weigh on the stock. Technical indicators in the article were also mixed, underlining that neither fundamental nor technical analysis can predict future price movements with certainty.

Should I invest in Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena stock?

The article cannot determine whether you should invest in Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena. That decision depends on your financial circumstances, objectives, time horizon and tolerance for risk. BMPS faces potential opportunities and risks linked to earnings, interest rates, credit quality and its proposed transactions. Analyst forecasts may provide context, but they are forward-looking estimates rather than guarantees. Past performance is also not a reliable indicator of future results.

Can I trade Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena CFDs on Capital.com?

Yes, you can trade Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena CFDs on Capital.com. Trading share CFDs lets you speculate on price movements without owning the underlying asset and to take long or short positions. However, contracts for difference (CFDs) are traded on margin, and leverage amplifies both profits and losses. You should ensure you understand how CFD trading works, assess your risk tolerance, and recognise that losses can occur quickly.