Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena stock forecast: Third-party price targets
Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena is a publicly listed Italian bank, with its shares tracked by analysts and traders amid regulatory updates, capital changes and sector-wide news. Explore BMPS price action, third-party price targets and technical analysis.
Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena S.p.A. (BMPS) is trading around €8.84 in early European trading on 16 January 2026, positioned near the lower end of Capital.com’s stated intraday range between €8.84 and €9.31 as of 3:45pm UTC. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
The move comes amid elevated news flow around the bank, including the completion of a €750 million covered bond placement targeted at institutional investors, with reported demand above €2.4 billion (MarketScreener, 15 January 2026). There’s also ongoing market attention on its strategic direction following the Mediobanca transaction (Reuters, 16 January 2026). Sector sentiment toward Italian banks remains influenced by broader macro and regulatory developments, including Italy’s 2026 budget tax measures affecting banks (EY, 22 October 2025) and updated economic data released in January 2026 (Banca d'Italia, 13 January 2026).
BCA MPS stock forecast 2026–2030: Third-party price targets
As of 16 January 2026, third-party Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena stock predictions cluster in a relatively narrow band around the current market level. Recent surveys and data-provider summaries focus on 12-month horizons, reflecting varying views on earnings durability, capital deployment, and the broader Italian banking landscape. These forecasts are indicative, not guarantees, and include estimates from both buy-side and independent sources.
Simply Wall St (consensus snapshot)
Simply Wall St reports a consensus 12-month target around €8.59, with individual estimates ranging from approximately €6.35 to €10.50. These projections are shaped by expectations around earnings growth, margins and risk factors, alongside contrasting assessments of the bank’s valuation versus its modelled fair value (Yahoo Finance, 14 January 2026).
Investing.com (data-vendor consensus)
Investing.com’s BMPS overview cites an average 12-month target around €10.15. This reflects differing assumptions around profitability trends, balance sheet quality and Italy’s rate and regulatory backdrop (Investing.com, 16 January 2026).
Fintel (target range compilation)
Fintel’s summary shows an average 12-month target of €9.98, with a range from €8.08 to €12.08. The dispersion is attributed to diverging house views on revenue, cost profiles and potential strategic developments (Fintel, 16 January 2026).
StocksGuide (multi-analyst screen)
StocksGuide’s forecast page references a multi-analyst 2025–2026 framework with an average target of €10.25 across 12 estimates. Targets span from €8.08 to €11.55. The report highlights how valuation scenarios depend on revenue, margin and capital developments versus consensus (StocksGuide, 16 January 2026).
Predictions and third-party forecasts are inherently uncertain, as they cannot fully account for unexpected market developments. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
BMPS stock price: Technical overview
The BMPS stock price was trading near €8.84 as of 3:45pm UTC on 16 January 2026, sitting just under the classic pivot at €8.60 and below the nearby Classic R1 at €9.70. The intraday range spans €8.84 to €9.31. On the daily chart, the 20/50/100/200-day simple moving averages (SMAs) cluster around €8.96, €8.47, €8.04 and €7.66 respectively. The 10-day SMAs and EMAs near €9.11–€9.08, and the 30-day markers around €8.60–€8.76, reflect price oscillating near a rising medium-term base.
The 14-day RSI, at 51.7, sits in neutral territory, while the ADX near 28.3 suggests a more established trend backdrop. Shorter-term indicators, including Momentum and MACD, currently show a mildly corrective tilt.
On the topside, the nearest classic resistance is €9.70, with the €10.28 R2 level offering the next reference if that’s cleared. On pullbacks, the classic pivot at €8.60 marks initial support, followed by the 100-day SMA around €8.04. A break below that would place the classic S1 region near €8.03 into focus (TradingView, 16 January 2026).
This technical analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.
Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena share price history (2024–2026)
BMPS has seen a substantial price recovery over the past two years. From around €3.19 at the start of 2024, the share price rose to approximately €6.69 by early January 2025, then extended into the €8–€9 range through late 2025. Price action has featured periods of volatility – including a dip to around €4.00 in April 2024 and a series of moves above €8.00 from May 2025 – but the broader trajectory has been upward.
By 16 January 2026, BMPS was trading around €8.86, having earlier touched €9.26 during the session.
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
BCA MPS (BMPS): Capital.com analyst view
The BMPS stock price has staged a notable recovery over the past two years, moving from around €3–€4 in early 2024 to between €8–€9 by mid-January 2026. This trend has coincided with periods of improved profitability, balance sheet repair and renewed investor interest in Italian banks. However, the path has also included bouts of volatility tied to macroeconomic developments and company-specific updates.
Several factors could continue to influence BMPS price action in both directions. These include euro area rate expectations, broader sentiment toward European financials, and any updates on the bank’s capital, asset quality or strategy. Supportive developments may underpin the shares, while weaker results, regulatory changes or a shift in market risk appetite could trigger renewed pressure on valuations.
Capital.com’s client sentiment for BMPS CFDs
As of 16 January 2026, Client positioning on Capital.com shows a strong lean towards long exposure in BMPS CFDs, with 95.2% of traders on the buy side and 4.8% on the sell side. This reflects a clear buy-side skew in current open positions and not necessarily a balanced market view. Sentiment is subject to change.
Summary – BCA MPS 2026
- BMPS traded around €8.86 on 16 January 2026, near the lower end of Capital.com’s stated intraday range (€8.84–€9.31 as of 3:45pm UTC).
- Over two years, the share price has risen from the mid-€3s in early 2024 to the €8–€9 range by early 2026, with intermittent consolidation.
- Daily technicals show price sitting above rising 50/100/200-day moving averages but just below shorter-term averages around €9.00. RSI remains neutral, with ADX signalling a trend in place.
- Classic daily pivots place initial resistance near €9.70 and support at the €8.60 pivot, followed by a moving-average zone near €8.04.
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
FAQ
Who owns the most Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena stock?
Ownership of Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena (BMPS) shares is spread across institutional investors, government stakeholders and retail holders. As of recent disclosures, the Italian government remains one of the largest shareholders, having retained a sizeable stake following earlier recapitalisation efforts. Specific ownership levels can change over time based on regulatory filings and market activity. Refer to the latest investor relations data for the most current information on major shareholders.
What is the 5-year BCA MPS share price forecast?
Most available forecasts for BMPS focus on 12-month outlooks rather than five-year projections. Analyst price targets currently sit in a band between roughly €7.90 and €10.00, reflecting differing views on profitability, capital strategy and broader Italian banking conditions. Longer-term projections are more speculative and subject to change, given the influence of macroeconomic trends, regulation and evolving corporate strategy. These estimates are not guarantees and should not be relied on as the sole basis for a trading decision.
Is BCA MPS a good stock to buy?
Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena has seen a strong recovery over the past two years, with its share price rising from the €3–€4 range to between €8–€9. While this movement reflects periods of improved performance and sentiment, the stock has also shown volatility, driven by broader economic factors and company-specific updates. Suitability for an individual portfolio depends on personal circumstances, including risk appetite and market outlook. This is not investment advice.
Could BCA MPS stock go up or down?
The BMPS share price could move in either direction depending on several factors, including interest-rate expectations in the euro area, investor sentiment towards financials, and updates on the bank’s capital position or earnings. Technical indicators suggest a developing trend, but short-term signals point to a possible correction. As with all equities, prices are shaped by sentiment, macroeconomic conditions and company performance. Forecasts remain uncertain, and past price trends are not reliable indicators of future performance.
Should I invest in BCA MPS stock?
Whether to invest in BMPS depends on individual goals, risk tolerance and financial circumstances. Analyst views differ, and while the bank has shown signs of recovery, it also operates within a complex and regulated environment. It’s important to assess both potential opportunities and risks, including market volatility and policy changes. This information is provided for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell.
Can I trade Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena CFDs on Capital.com?
Yes, you can trade BMPS CFDs on Capital.com. Trading share CFDs lets you speculate on price movements without owning the underlying asset and to take long or short positions. However, contracts for difference (CFDs) are traded on margin, and leverage amplifies both profits and losses. You should ensure you understand how CFD trading works, assess your risk tolerance, and recognise that losses can occur quickly.