Oil price forecast 2025-2030: Third-party price target
Discover third-party oil price predictions for 2025 and beyond, with analyst targets, historical prices, and trading strategies.
Oil prices have remained volatile in 2025, shaped by geopolitical tensions, shifting supply dynamics, and changing monetary policies. After a period of relative stability, renewed concerns over global supply disruptions have driven fluctuations in crude prices.
Recent geopolitical developments, including ongoing tensions in Eastern Europe and the Middle East, continue to weigh on market sentiment. Sanctions on Russian oil, alongside production cuts from OPEC+, have kept supply constrained, even as global demand faces headwinds from a slowing economy and the rise of alternative energy sources.
April saw the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude spot price fall from above $70 to around $54 as trade war escalation triggered fear of an economic slowdown. But in June, the commodity moved above $70 per barrel, with Brent crude reaching as high as $76l, as the escalating crisis between Israel and Iran caused concern that the conflict could impact Iran’s oil exports and flows of crude from the wider region.. Analysts remain divided on the long-term outlook, with forecasts varying significantly based on future economic and political developments.
What’s next for oil prices? We’ll look at the outlook, recent key price drivers, and trading strategies, along with analyst predictions for 2025 and later.
Oil price forecast 2025-2030
The oil price forecast for 2025-2026 includes Goldman Sachs’ projection that Brent crude will trade in a range of $70-85 per barrel in 2025, falling to ‘the low $60s’ in 2026. The bank cited persistent supply surpluses – estimated at 0.4 million barrels per day (mbd) in 2025 – as the main driver of downward pressure.
Meanwhile, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), in its June 2025 Short-Term Energy Outlook, forecasted that Brent crude could average $61 per barrel in the second half of 2025, before easing further to $59 per barrel in 2026. The agency attributed this outlook to a gradual increase in global oil inventories driven by steady non-OPEC production growth and modest demand expansion.
JP Morgan, in a research note published on 16 May 2025, forecasted that Brent crude will average $66 per barrel in 2025, with prices easing to $58 per barrel in 2026. The bank pointed to a more balanced supply-demand outlook, with declining geopolitical tensions and cautious OPEC+ production planning helping to stabilise prices.
In April, HSBC revised its oil price forecasts, lowering its projection for Brent crude to $68.50 per barrel in 2025, down from a previous estimate of $73. For 2026, HSBC reduced its forecast to $65 per barrel. The bank cited softer-than-expected global demand and the potential for increased supply from OPEC+ as key reasons for the downgrade.
In March, energy consultancy Wood Mackenzie forecasted that Brent crude could average $73 per barrel in 2025, a decline of $7 from 2024. The outlook reflects a complex balance of supply and demand: while global demand is expected to grow by 1.1 million barrels per day, non-OPEC supply is projected to increase by 1.4 million barrels per day, potentially exceeding demand growth.
Capital.com analyst insight
Capital.com analyst Daniela Hathorn said: ‘Despite near-term volatility, the medium-term outlook for oil appears more stable. History shows that price spikes linked to Middle East tensions often fade as producers – including OPEC, OPEC+ and the US – step in to boost supply. The IEA also points to rising global inventories and a comfortable supply outlook for H2 2025.
She added: ‘While prices may stay elevated short term due to geopolitical risk, the upside seems capped unless a major supply disruption occurs. Traders should watch developments in the Strait of Hormuz, OPEC+ output decisions, and any signs of easing tensions in the region.’
2030 oil price prediction
Looking further ahead, the IEA has suggested that global Brent crude prices could stabilise between $75 and $80 per barrel by 2030, influenced by increased investment in fossil fuel projects and a shift towards clean energy. Similarly, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasted average Brent crude prices at $73 per barrel in 2030.
In September 2024, Reuters reported that Goldman Sachs expects AI to lower oil prices over the next decade by improving supply efficiency, cutting shale well costs by 30%, and increasing US shale reserves by up to 20%. While AI may boost demand, its cost-cutting effects could outweigh this, potentially reducing oil’s marginal incentive price by $5 per barrel.
Analysts’ oil price predictions are based on historical data, and can be inaccurate. Past performance isn’t a reliable indicator of future results. It’s important to do your own research, and don’t trade with more than you can afford to lose.
WTI crude oil price history
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
The WTI crude oil price history has seen dramatic price swings over the past two decades, shaped by geopolitical events, economic cycles, and supply shocks.
Prices surged above $140 per barrel in 2008 before collapsing during the global financial crisis. The market rebounded in the early 2010s, only to crash again in 2014-2016 due to a supply glut triggered by the US shale boom. More recently, the Covid-19 pandemic sent WTI futures into negative territory for the first time in history in April 2020, as lockdowns crushed demand and storage capacity ran out.
WTI crude oil prices: 2022-2025
Over the past three years, WTI crude has remained volatile due to supply disruptions, geopolitical tensions, and shifting demand patterns:
2022: prices soared above $130 per barrel in March 2022, following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which triggered global supply concerns. However, prices cooled in the second half of the year as central banks raised interest rates, weakening demand. By December, WTI settled around $80 per barrel.
2023: oil prices fluctuated between $65 and $90 per barrel, influenced by OPEC+ production cuts, China’s uneven economic recovery, and concerns over a potential global recession. The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) releases helped stabilise supply, but prices remained sensitive to macroeconomic trends.
2024: WTI crude mostly traded in a $70-$85 per barrel range, with price spikes triggered by Middle East tensions and continued supply management by OPEC+. However, weaker industrial demand and growing US shale production kept gains in check.
2025 (YTD): in early 2025, WTI crude hovered around $70 per barrel, with analysts watching global economic growth, Federal Reserve policy shifts, and potential supply disruptions as key price drivers. Trade war escalation and an OPEC+ production increase caused an April drop to around $54. But by June, the price had moved above the $70 mark amid fresh supply concerns caused by the Iran/Israel conflict.
Oil markets remain in flux, with traders assessing OPEC+ policy decisions, US production trends, upheaval in the Middle East and demand outlooks from China and India. Want to understand what’s next for crude oil? Read on for expert forecasts and market insights.
Global oil outlook: rising supply, moderating prices
Oil markets remain under pressure as supply growth continues to outpace consumption. According to the EIA’s June 2025 Short-Term Energy Outlook, global liquid fuels production is expected to average 104.4 million barrels per day (bpd) this year – up from 102.8 million bpd in 2024. In contrast, global liquid fuels consumption is forecast at 103.5 million bpd in 2025, contributing to a build in global inventories.
Inventories rose through the first five months of 2025 and are projected to grow by an average of 0.8 million bpd over the year, easing to 0.6 million bpd in the second half as production growth slows and demand rises.
The EIA notes that increased supply from OPEC+, Kazakhstan, and Brazil – along with weaker OECD demand – has widened the supply-demand gap. Meanwhile, uncertainties remain, including potential supply risks in Libya and Canada, as well as ongoing geopolitical tensions.
Brent crude averaged $64 per barrel in May, with forecasts suggesting a yearly average of $66 in 2025, falling to $59 in 2026 as markets gradually rebalance.
For traders, monitoring supply shifts, OPEC+ decisions, and US production trends will be critical in navigating oil price movements in the coming years. Don’t miss our expert news and analysis to keep on top of the latest events impacting this commodity and many other assets.
Strategies to consider for oil trading
Oil trading presents unique opportunities due to its high volatility, liquidity, and sensitivity to global events. Choosing the right trading strategy depends on your risk tolerance, time commitment, and market experience. Here are some key approaches tailored to oil markets.
Trend trading strategy
Trend trading involves identifying and capitalising on sustained price movements in oil. Traders use indicators like the relative strength index (RSI), moving averages, and MACD to confirm trends and pinpoint entry and exit levels.
Since oil prices are heavily influenced by macroeconomic shifts, geopolitical tensions, and supply-demand dynamics, staying informed about market news and analysis and OPEC decisions is crucial. However, traders must be prepared for trend reversals, especially during unexpected supply shocks or policy changes.
Scalp trading strategy
Scalping is a high-frequency strategy where traders exploit small price fluctuations within minutes or hours, executing multiple trades daily. Given oil’s strong liquidity and volatility, this method can be highly effective, particularly around:
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EIA crude oil inventory reports
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Geopolitical developments
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OPEC+ production announcements
However, scalping requires lightning-fast execution and carries higher transaction costs due to frequent trades. It’s best suited for traders who thrive in fast-paced environments and have access to low-latency trading platforms.
Swing trading strategy
Swing trading targets price swings over days or weeks, allowing traders to capitalise on oil’s reaction to:
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OPEC production decisions
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Economic reports (eg, GDP, inflation, energy demand)
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Weather events affecting production or transportation
This strategy requires a balance of technical analysis (chart patterns, support/resistance levels) and fundamental insights. Keeping on top of your risk management with stop-loss orders and position sizing is essential, as oil’s price swings can be unpredictable.