Aluminium price forecast: Could prices rise in 2025?

Aluminium prices have risen over 3% since late January 2025, and over 18% since July 2024 – when prices fell below $2224.5. But what’s next for aluminium?

Here are the aluminium price predictions for 2025 and beyond, with insights from third-party analysts’ and market experts.

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Looking forward: Aluminium price forecast for 2025-2030

Aluminium’s price outlook for 2025-2030 reflects key tailwinds, driven by its lightweight strength, recyclability, and industrial demand. Fitch Ratings provides a medium-term prediction, anticipating an average $2,400 aluminium price in 2025, falling to $2,300 for 2026, and remaining at $2,300 for 2027.

Meanwhile, Walletinvestor forecasts 2025 aluminium prices to trade for approximately $2482.46-$2632.56, closing the year at $2,600.22. For 2026, it predicts a range of $2527.47-$2678.01, and a 2645.040 December closing price. Walletinvestor projects that aluminium will trade at approximately $2854.26 by 2030.

Trading Economics is slightly more bullish, predicting a $2639 aluminium price by the end of Q1 2025, rising to $2776.45 for February 2026, while World Bank forecasts a $2,500 average aluminium price for 2025, increasing to $2,600 for 2026.

Note that analysts’ predictions can be wrong. Aluminium price forecasts shouldn’t be used as substitutes for your own research. Do independent research, practise due diligence, and remember that your decision to trade should depend on your risk tolerance, trading strategies, and individual preferences.

Analyst view: Aluminium price targets 2025-2026

When it comes to a broad fundamental view of aluminium’s future, February 2025 saw US president Trump announcing plans to impose fresh tariffs on aluminium imports from key producers, including Canada. Meanwhile, the EU proposed restrictions on Russian aluminum imports to its member states on 29 January 2025, due to the ongoing conflict in Ukraine.

Warren Patterson, ING’s head of commodities strategy said that, if enacted, EU sanctions are likely to spur LME prices, but added: ‘It is not a given that the EU will agree to the package. The proposal will require backing from all member states and may still change before being formally proposed to members, according to reports.

‘Meanwhile, tariff threats keep the metals markets on edge… Metals markets are turning increasingly nervous about the prospect of tariffs.’ ING forecasts aluminium prices to average $2,625 in 2025, falling to $2,500 in 2026.

33 analysts participated in a January 2025 Reuters poll, collectively deeming aluminium to be their ‘top performer’ out of London Metal Exchange (LME) base metals, projecting 6.3% year-on-year price growth in 2025, citing a potential ‘supply shortfall’.

William Oplinger, CEO at Alcoa – one of Canada’s largest aluminium producing companies – said in a CNBC interview: ‘China is a big issue for the aluminium market… [they’ve] grown from roughly 10% of the global market to 60%, so when they cap [aluminium production] at 45 million metric tons, that’s a signal to the rest of the world that prices could be stronger in 2025.’

Aluminium price history

Past performance doesn’t guarantee future results

Aluminum prices reached an all-time high of over $3,800 per tonne in March 2022, which was influenced by supply chain disruptions and surging energy costs following Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Prices declined through the rest of the 2022 as global economic growth slowed and demand weakened, particularly in China.

The downward trend slowed in 2023, with average aluminium prices fluctuating between $2117 and $2658.50 per tonne, closing the year at approximately $2384. 

Aluminium prices continued to fluctuate in January-February 2024, followed by a significant uptrend in March-May 2024, which reflected growing anticipation of potential economic stimulus measures and potential supply constraints in China. 

In May 2024, China’s aluminium production reached record highs, and institutional investors such as Trafigura sold large volumes of aluminium on the London Metal Exchange, signalling oversupply and resulting in aluminium prices falling substantially in June-July 2024. To end the year, aluminium traded for an average price of $2551.5 on 31 December 2024.

Aluminium prices experienced volatility in January and February 2025, with daily averages fluctuating between $2490-$2691.

Aluminium trading strategies to consider

Trading strategies can provide guidance and structure in unpredictable markets. Boost your knowledge with our trading strategies guides for commodities, such as aluminium.

Those interested in trading aluminium markets could also research stocks issued by companies that are involved in the manufacturing, and distribution of aluminium and its raw materials, such as: Alcoa, Rio Tinto, Kaiser Aluminium, and Century Aluminium.

The importance of strategy in commodities trading

Equip yourself with the tools to navigate the financial markets by building a trading strategy. An effective trading strategy is key in the commodity markets, which can be volatile. While no strategy guarantees success, a combination of technical and fundamental analysis can provide crucial support to traders adapting to changing market conditions, and help to manage effectively.

Choose a trading strategy based on individual preferences, risk tolerance, and trading objectives.

Learn more on our trading strategies page.

Balancing risks and reward in commodities trading

While commodity trading offers potential opportunities, long-term success depends on a structured approach, effective risk management, and continuous market analysis. Identify the potential risks and rewards of commodities trading, and learn how to trade with confidence.

Here are some key practices:

• Market knowledge – learn the market’s fundamentals, such as supply and demand factors, macroeconomic influences, and both technical and fundamental analysis techniques.

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• Trading strategy – choose a strategy that suits your personal trading style, risk tolerance, and preferences. Following a structured plan helps reduce the likelihood of impulsive decision-making. 

• Diversification – diversifying a portfolio across different commodities and trading strategies aims to reduce overall exposure to market volatility. This may mitigate the impact of adverse price movements in any single asset.

• Regulatory compliance – trading with a regulated broker ensures access to a secure and transparent trading environment. Regulatory oversight provides protections such as segregated client funds and fair execution practices.

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