IDS share price forecast: Third party price target

Royal Mail plc, which owns the London-based postal service and courier company Royal Mail and the international parcel delivery network General Logistic Systems (GLS), changed its name to International Distribution Services (IDS) in October 2022. Following the rebranding, ‘RMG’ now trades as ‘IDS’ on the London Stock Exchange. 

In April 2024, EP Group, a Czech investment firm owned by billionaire Daniel Křetínský, announced its bid to acquire IDS. The UK government approved the EP Group’s £3.6 billion takeover on 16 December 2024.

What’s next for the UK’s largest delivery company? Here are the third-party IDS predictions and insights for 2025 onward.

IDS share price forecast for 2025 and beyond

Analysts’ IDS price forecasts for 2025 and beyond reflect a modest outlook, with Trading Economics forecasting a 362.88p IDS price by the end of Q1 2025, and a 12-month price target of 356.61p.

Meanwhile, TradingView provides one-year IDS forecasts from four analysts predicting a 364p average price in January 2026. 368p is the highest price they forecast, with the lowest 360p – all recommending ‘hold’.

Tipranks provides two Wall Street analysts’ 12-month forecasts for IDS. They average 379.91p, with the highest 392.11p and the lowest 367.07p – with a ‘hold’ rating. The Financial Times includes six IDS stock ratings, including five ‘holds' and one ‘outperform’. The latter’s 12-month price targets come from seven analysts, with the highest estimate at 370p, the lowest 300p, and the median 360p. Four analysts at the publication predict dividend payments to increase to 0.09p.

Walletinvestor offers a much more bullish outlook, predicting an average 735.302p IDS price in 12 months, with a 789.466p high, and a 681.138p low.

The company’s price has increased substantially after EP Group announced its bid to take over IDS. EP Group made an offer on 29 May 2024 which valued IDS at 370p per share, just over 37.5% higher than its 269.01p closing price on 30 April 2024.

On 16 December 2024, the UK government approved EP Group’s bid, and the IDS price closed at 361.80p.

These predictions are current as of 3 February 2025, and are subject to change.

IDS share price predictions: Analysts’ price target view

Due to EP Group’s ongoing takeover of IDS, few analysts provide predictions beyond 2030. Longer-term forecasts are often calculated using computer algorithms and historical data, and may not reflect a realistic outlook.

Here are the long-term IDS price predictions for 2027 onward.

Looking further afield, ABC Money predicts IDS’s stock price will average 380p in 2027, increasing to 400p in 2028, 410p in 2029, and 440p in 2030. It anticipates the price to rise consistently, reaching an average 540p price in 2035 and 630p in 2040.

Meanwhile, Walletinvestor predicts that IDS will trade for an average price of approximately 1207.176p in 2027, which rises to 1519.270p in 2028, and 1828.302p in 2029.

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IDS share price drivers

Here are some factors contributing to analysts’ IDS price predictions, and how they could influence its price movements.

GLS and global operations

Operating across 40 European and North American markets, GLS contributes a significant portion of IDS’s revenue. Strong GLS performance could provide stability for IDS, particularly amid regulatory uncertainties affecting Royal Mail. Conversely, weaker-than-expected GLS earnings, rising operational costs, or economic slowdowns in key markets could introduce additional risks, potentially impacting IDS’s broader financial outlook and share price.

Regulatory changes

In January 2025, the UK’s postal regulator, Ofcom, proposed changes to Royal Mail's universal service obligation (USO), including delivering second-class letters on alternate weekdays and eliminating Saturday deliveries, while maintaining first-class deliveries six days a week. This could save IDS up to £425 million annually, potentially improving profitability. However, if regulatory approvals take longer than expected, or if the government intervenes, this could impact trader sentiment and the share price.

Efficiency and cost management

Royal Mail is investing in automated parcel sorting systems and electric delivery vehicles to improve efficiency and reduce carbon emissions. If the company successfully reduces costs while maintaining service levels, its share price might rise. Conversely, delays in modernisation or higher-than-expected costs could negatively influence its price movements.

Competition

E-commerce drives demand for parcel deliveries, but IDS faces competition from courier services such as Evri, DPD, and Amazon Logistics. Analysts assess whether IDS can maintain its market share through pricing strategies and service improvements. Losing market share to competitors could put downward pressure on IDS’s stock price, while strong performance in parcel deliveries may lift it.

Worker relations and unions

In April 2023, Royal Mail and the Communication Workers Union (CWU) reached a pay agreement that included a 10% salary increase over three years and a one-off lump sum of £500. Future disputes over wages, conditions, or restructuring plans could affect trader confidence. If IDS maintains stable labour relations, this could support its share price.

Macroeconomic conditions

A slowdown in consumer spending could reduce parcel volumes, while higher fuel and wage costs may squeeze profit margins. If inflation eases and economic conditions stabilise, this may potentially benefit IDS’s financial outlook and share price.

IDS share price history

Royal Mail plc, as the parent company was formerly known, debuted on the London Stock Exchange following its IPO on 11 October 2013, with the stock code ‘RMG’, and opened at 450p per share. Its share price rose ‘sharply’ according to the BBC, after its ‘hugely oversubscribed’ IPO priced at 330p. Shares reached a 618p all-time-high on 16 January 2014.

Over the next decade, the share price fluctuated due to various operational and market factors. The company faced challenges adapting to declining letter volumes and increasing competition in the parcel delivery sector. Labour disputes and operational inefficiencies also impacted trading sentiment during this period, and the Royal Mail plc share price dropped to a 121.92p all-time-low on 1 April 2020.

Shares surged 49.8% throughout 2021, a growth largely attributed to the higher demand for its parcel services in the first five months of the year. The Royal Mail plc price climbed to 612.80p by 7 June 2021 – just shy of its 2014 all-time-high – influenced by rising demand due to the e-commerce boom.

Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.

In the first quarter of 2022, Royal Mail plc’s stock price plunged 35% while the LSE surged by 16.7%. The stock’s 52-week low-high range was 317.15p to 613.80p (as of 21 April), according to data from the LSE.

Royal Mail plc rebranded to IDS on 4 October 2022, now trading as ‘IDS’ on the London Stock Exchange. Shortly after the name change, IDS reported an operating loss of £219 million for the six months ending 30 September 2022, a sharp decline from a £235 million profit in the same period the previous year. The IDS price fell over the following year, attributed in part to industrial action, with three days of strikes costing the company £70 million.

In April 2024, Czech investment firm EP Group, led by Daniel Křetínský, announced a £3.6 billion bid to acquire IDS, which valued its stock at 370p per-share, just over 37.5% higher than its 269.01p closing price the month prior. The UK government approved this takeover on 16 December 2024.

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IDS trading strategies to consider

Trading IDS shares may require a structured approach, particularly following EP Group’s recent acquisition, to be completed in early 2025. The stock’s volatility, regulatory uncertainties, and evolving market position make it essential to apply a well-defined trading strategy

Below, we explore some trading strategies with actionable insights to boost your knowledge.

Position trading: long-term outlook

Position traders hold shares over an extended period, focusing on fundamentals such as revenue growth, cost efficiencies, and regulatory changes.

IDS’s financial stability will be influenced by EP Group’s strategic direction and their commitment to maintaining Royal Mail’s universal service obligation (USO) and UK headquarters, as well as GLS’s performance and global expansion. Traders following this strategy consider quarterly earnings reports, industry trends, and any structural reforms affecting RMG and GLS.

Trend trading: stock price momentum

Trend traders aim to identify and follow prevailing price movements using technical indicators. IDS shares have historically experienced long-term trends influenced by government policy changes, union relations, and macroeconomic shifts.

Indicators such as moving averages, the Relative Strength Index (RSI), and Bollinger Bands can indicate potential uptrends or downtrends in IDS’s stock. A breakout above resistance levels, for instance, might indicate potential bullish momentum, whereas a decline below key support levels could signal bearish momentum.

Swing trading: mid-term strategy

Swing traders aim to take advantage of short- to medium-term price swings, typically holding positions for days or weeks. This strategy could be useful for IDS, given its price sensitivity to corporate developments and market sentiment.

Applying technical tools such as Fibonacci retracements and MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) can help traders identify potential entry and exit points. Swing traders may also look for price consolidation periods before breakouts occur.

Day trading: intraday volatility

Day traders intend to benefit from intraday price fluctuations. IDS shares can experience short-term volatility due to market reactions to news, earnings reports, or macroeconomic events.

For IDS, liquidity and volume spikes – especially around earnings reports or regulatory updates – can create potential short-term trading opportunities. Using candlestick patterns and Level 2 order book data may help refine trade entries and exits.

Risks and rewards to trading IDS shares

IDS shares present distinct risks and rewards for traders, particularly in light of EP Group's impending acquisition. Here are some of them:

Regulatory environment

The UK postal regulator, Ofcom, has proposed changes to Royal Mail’s universal service obligation (USO), including reducing second-class letter deliveries to alternate weekdays and eliminating Saturday deliveries. These changes are projected to save IDS up to £425 million annually.

If implemented, these measures could significantly reduce operational costs, potentially improving profitability and supporting share price appreciation. Meanwhile, the consultation process is ongoing, with a final decision anticipated in summer 2025. Delays or unfavorable outcomes could maintain existing cost pressures, negatively impacting financial performance.

Union relations

EP Group has reached agreements in principle with IDS's unions, including the Communication Workers Union (CWU) and CMA Unite. As part of the acquisition agreement, Royal Mail employees are set to receive a 10% share of any dividends paid, and a workers' group will be established to meet regularly with company directors.

These agreements may foster improved labour relations, reducing the risk of strikes and operational disruptions, thereby supporting consistent service delivery and financial stability for IDS. However, future disputes over wages, conditions, or restructuring plans could still arise, potentially leading to industrial action and affecting trader confidence.

Market competition

IDS faces intense competition from private courier services such as DPD and Evri in the UK, while GLS competes with DHL, UPS, and FedEx in Europe and North America. Strengthening GLS’s cross-border network and last-mile delivery capabilities may enhance IDS’s competitive position, potentially driving revenue growth. However, logistics disruptions, regulatory constraints, and cost pressures could impact GLS’s contribution to IDS’s financial performance.

Conversely, a failure to effectively implement these technologies or to keep pace with competitors' innovations could result in loss of market share, negatively impacting revenues and share price.

Macroeconomic factors

Economic conditions, including consumer spending patterns and inflation rates, can significantly impact IDS's business. A decrease in consumer spending could reduce parcel volumes, while rising costs may impede profit growth. 

An economic recovery leading to increased consumer spending could boost parcel volumes, enhancing revenue and profitability. However, economic downturns or high inflation could suppress consumer spending and increase operational costs, adversely affecting financial performance and share value.

Traders can use risk management tools to help mitigate potential losses. Stop-loss orders can limit potential losses*, while take-profit aims to protect potential gains. 

Learn how to identify and effectively manage the potential risks associated with trading –  check out our comprehensive risk management guide.

*Stop-loss is not guaranteed. Guaranteed stop-loss may incur additional costs.

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