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Gold price forecast for 2023 and beyond: Will the dollar keep it down?

By Nicole Willing

Edited by Georgy Istigechev


Updated

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Gold
Gold
1769.66 USD
0.37 +0.020%
DXY
US Dollar Index
105.1311 USD
0.2 +0.190%

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Close-up of a $20 banknote and gold bullion
How will a strong US dollar affect the price of gold? – Photo: corlaffra/Shutterstock.com

The gold market narrative has been driven by the contrasting effects of persistently high inflation and central banks raising interest rates in response.

Gold prices rose above $1,750/oz again after the publication of November FOMC minutes from the US Federal Reserve (Fed).

The minutes presented a more dovish surprise than the market expected after Chairman Jerome Powell's November news conference, reiterating that most Fed members judged a lowering in the fed funds rate hike would be appropriate soon.

The price of gold is down close to 4% so far this year, and close to 12% below the $2,000 level seen in early March.

Over the past month, a weaker US dollar has contributed to the commodity’s downward momentum.

Gold Live Spot Price Chart


What are the prospects for the gold market for the rest of the year, given the current macroeconomic and geopolitical environment? Should you invest in gold now?

In this article, we look at the recent drivers and gold price predictions from commodities analysts.

Gold vs USD

As the markets opened following the 4 July weekend in the US, the gold price dipped below the $1,800 mark for the first time since early February. Gold tends to trade in an inverse direction to the US dollar, as it becomes more expensive for buyers with other currencies and does not yield interest.
The commodity continued its decline into mid-July, marking the longest losing streak for gold since November 2020, after fresh signs of accelerating inflation encouraged bets that the Fed will take further aggressive steps to tame price increases.
The commodity fought back for modest gains and on 14 September 2022 spot gold prices inched down to $1,700 per ounce – the lowest level in over two years.
As the US Federal Reserve has indicated a potential slowing of its interest rate hiking cycle, gold has gained close to 6.5% over the past month.
As of 25 November 2022, gold was trading at $1,753.
The price of gold has been largely influenced by a weaker US dollar index (DXY), as the Fed raised interest rates by 75 basis points (bps) for the fourth consecutive time at its November meeting, but showed signs of slowing its contraction cycle.

The dollar has benefited from the uncertain macroeconomic environment, with concerns about high inflation, the prospect of recession, slowing growth in China and the impact of the Russia-Ukraine war prompting investors to sell other assets in favour of holding dollars.

The DXY, which measures the dollar’s performance against a basket of other currencies, peaked at 114.68 on 28 September – its highest level since April 2002.
Bob Haberkorn, senior market strategist at RJO Futures, explained the market dynamics to Bloomberg in mid-June 2022:
“Gold competes against the bond markets as a safe haven... a potential rate hike of 75 to 100 basis points by the [Federal Reserve] might make the bond market a little more attractive to safe-haven buyers than the gold market would normally be.”

However, as the Fed’s policy of monetary contraction appears to be showing signs of an end, some analysts have said the dollar has peaked. 

HSBC foreign exchange strategists wrote in note to clients this week:

“We expect the US dollar’s powerful climb over the past year to reverse in 2023 as the Fed’s hiking cycle comes to an end. It has peaked.”

Gold climbed to a high of $2,043.30 on 8 March, a rise of 13.5% from the $1,800 level seen at the start of the year, as the Russia-Ukraine war escalated. That was close to the all-time high in dollar terms seen in August 2020 – above $2,070 – and a new record in euro terms.

The Fed has hiked interest rates six times so far in 2022. It implemented a 25bp hike in mid-March, a 50bp increase on 4 May, and three 75bp rises on 15 June, 22 July, 21 September, and most recently 2 November.

The US central bank is likely to maintain but slow its rise of borrowing costs. 

Consumer Price Index (CPI) data released on 10 November showed underlying inflation is falling. The CPI rose 0.4% in October on a seasonally-adjusted basis, according to a report by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, showing growth of 7.7% year-on-year (YOY). 

The CPI is the most well-known indicator of inflation, and measures the percentage change in the price of a basket of goods and services consumed by households.

Thierry Wizman, a strategist at Macquarie, commented on the figures in a piece for the Financial Times:

“Everything is pointing to disinflation in the US and with that we will see a slowdown in the US economy in the first quarter of next year . . . That forms the basis for the weaker dollar story.”

The central bank has some signs of easing off on its current policy direction. A “substantial majority” of Federal Reserve officials support slowing down the pace of interest rate rises soon, according to an account of their most recent November meeting.

“A slower pace in these circumstances would better allow the committee to assess progress toward its goals of maximum employment and price stability,” the minutes read.

According to the minutes, economists at the Fed have judged the possibility of a recession over the next year was “almost as likely” as their baseline prediction that the world’s largest economy will narrowly avoid one.

A recession would be supportive to gold prices, but the sharp increase in interest rates being used to tackle inflation has so far been limiting the upside for the precious metal.

As noted by the German firm Heraeus:

“A recession is not necessarily bad news for gold. Typically, precious metal prices decline during recessions, including gold. In the 1980 recession, the gold price did decline (by 6%) but that was partly because it had just reached a record price at the start of 1980 and the Fed had finally pushed interest rates above inflation.
“However, in subsequent recessions the gold price has fallen less and recovered more quickly than the other metals. The gold price tends to be slightly higher at the end of a recession than at the start.”

The World Gold Council, the market development organisation for the gold industry, recently opined that the commodity will face two key headwinds. The council’s mid-year gold outlook outlined the following negative factors that could exert downward pressure on gold:

  • Higher nominal interest rates
  • A potentially stronger dollar.

 

However, the council also noted that the potential negative effects from the above may be offset by other, more supportive factors, including:

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  • High, persistent inflation with gold playing catch-up to other commodities
  • Market volatility linked to shifts in monetary policy and geopolitics
  • The need for effective hedges that overcome potentially higher correlations between equities and bonds.
Gold 5-Year Price ChartPast performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.

How is gold expected to trade for the rest of the year and in the longer term?

Let’s look at the latest forecasts and price projections from analysts.

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Gold price forecast for 2022 and beyond: Should you buy or sell the precious metal?

 

Technical perspective 

Capital.com market strategist Justin McQueen gave his view on the potential price range for gold in a video update on the commodity on 12 October. He also outlined a number of support and resistance levels to keep in mind:

Support

$1,615 (2022 low)
$1,584 (Fib level)
$1,485 (Fed QE infinity point)

Resistance

$1,760 (50% fib of 2020)
$1,715 (55dma)
$1,685 (2021 lows)

In a piece dated 1 September 2022, Capital.com analyst Piero Cingari pointed to seasonal trends that might support the gold price before the end of the year:

“The precious metal has shown a 1.6% average return in January, looking at the last 50 years of data. December also shows a strong seasonality (+1.5%), followed by May (+1.3%) and September (+1.2%). The likelihood of gold prices delivering positive returns in December and January has been 59% and 55%, respectively, reinforcing the strong seasonal pattern in these months. Cultural factors underlying the Indian wedding season are what make December and January bullish months for gold.”

In a more recent commodities analysis, Cingari noted the following resistance levels to watch in upcoming trading sessions:

“If the price action stays positive over the next few sessions, the MACD [Moving Average Convergence Divergence] could form a bullish crossover below the zero line. This has given the precious metal some short-term breathing room when it occurred previously this year. 

“However, strong dynamic resistance is provided by the 50-day moving average, which is located at $1,746. This zone is near the bearish trendline from March highs, which saw heavy selling pressure when it was touched in mid-August. 

“Overcoming the $1,750 barrier will continue to be the key resistance for gold prices in the short run. Instead, gold prices must decisively clear the 50% Fibonacci retracement level (2022 low to high), which also sits at June’s highs, to materially reverse the major bearish trend.”

Analyst predictions 

Analysts at German technology group Heraeus outlined their thoughts on gold’s potential future in their Precious Metals Appraisal on 21 November: 

“The gold price fell last week as the US bond yield curve inverted by the largest amount in 40 years. Last week, remarks by Federal Reserve members and the fastest growth in US retail sales in eight months reduced market expectations of an earlier pivot in monetary policy. Goldman Sachs raised its forecast for peak US interest rates to between 5% and 5.25%, from 4.75% to 5% previously.
“The dollar regained some strength during the week, resulting in a small decline in the gold price from three-month highs earlier in the week of $1,786.61/oz. The US Treasury 10-two-year yield spread fell to -0.665 during the week, to mark the lowest level since February 1982. An inverted yield curve has historically been a sign that the US economy is on the cusp of a recession.”

US-based Citibank was bullish in its short-term outlook for the gold price in 2022. The bank’s analysts wrote in their monthly market outlook on 4 July:

“Gold markets are not likely to inform financial markets of imminent recession. Whereas rates, inflation and FX are co-determined with some commodity prices (eg, crude oil), gold prices are reactive. Yet the negative performance of gold in recent months does not contrast with mean or median annualised returns preceding significant US growth contractions over the past four decades.
“Citi maintains a Q3 2022 gold price forecast of ~$1,845/oz, bottoming to an average of ~$1,750/oz in Q1 2023, and then rallying to $2,000/oz into 2024. The US falling into recession (sooner than later) might see gold prices rally a bit sooner.”

As of 25 November, algorithm-based forecasting website Wallet Investor was slightly bearish in its short-term projections, indicating that the gold price could end 2022 at $1,740.568 – a slight decrease from its current price. The platform was more bullish in its long-term predictions for the precious metal, as its gold price forecast for 2025 saw the commodity rising to an average of $2,055.182 in December of that year.

The website’s five-year gold price forecast indicated an average price of $2,260.638 by November 2027.

Gov Capital’s algorithm-based gold price outlook was bullish in the short term, predicting the commodity could potentially close out 2022 at a price of $1,828.836. However, it was extremely optimistic in its long-term forecast. The site’s gold price forecast for 2023 saw the price rising over $1,000 to end the year at $3,092.885, while its gold price forecast for 2025 indicated an average price of $6,752.267 by the end of the year.

A gold price forecast from TradingEconomics expected the commodity to trade at $1,729.31 by the end of this quarter. The website’s macro models and analysts’ expectations saw the price of the precious metal falling to trade at $1,668.23 in 12 months’ time.

No analyst or algorithm-based website provided gold price forecasts for 2030.

When considering gold price predictions for 2022, it’s important to keep in mind that high market volatility makes it difficult to produce accurate long-term estimates. As such, analysts and algorithm-based forecasters can and do get their predictions wrong. 

We recommend that you always do your own research. Look at the latest market trends, news, technical and fundamental analysis, and expert opinion before making any investment decision. Keep in mind that past performance is no guarantee of future returns, and never invest money that you cannot afford to lose.

FAQs

Is gold a good investment?

Some investors might opt to keep some exposure to gold in their portfolio for diversification, as a hedge against a fall in stocks and bonds. However, whether gold is a suitable investment for you depends on your risk tolerance, outlook for the market and whether you expect it to rebound or fall further, among other factors.

Always do your own research and remember that past performance is no guarantee of future returns. Never invest money that you cannot afford to lose.

Will gold go up or down in 2023?

The outlook for the gold price will likely depend on how geopolitical tensions unfold and how monetary tightening affects the global economy, among other factors.

Keep in mind that analysts can and do get their predictions wrong. You should do your own research to make informed trading decisions, always bearing in mind that past performance is no guarantee of future returns.

Should I invest in gold?

That depends on your view of the commodity. You will need to draw your own conclusions on how gold is likely to perform over the coming years.

Keep in mind that past performance doesn’t guarantee future returns, and never invest or trade money you cannot afford to lose.

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