Xiaomi stock forecast: EV losses, $20bn HKD buyback

Xiaomi Corporation (1810) is trading at $27.99 HKD as of 4:28pm UTC on 1 June 2026, at the lower end of today’s intraday range of $27.99–$28.91 HKD. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.

Pressure on the stock follows Xiaomi's Q1 2026 results, released on 27 May 2026. The figures showed that its EV and AI innovation segment posted an operating loss of 3.1 billion yuan, reversing the annual profit achieved in 2025, while rising memory chip costs weighed on smartphone margins (electrive.com, 27 May 2026). Separately, the company announced its largest-ever share buyback programme, worth up to $20 billion HKD, set to begin on 2 June 2026, replacing a prior programme under which Xiaomi repurchased shares worth approximately $14.6 billion HKD (ad-hoc-news, 30 May 2026). Under that earlier programme, Xiaomi repurchased approximately 10.7 million shares on 29 May 2026 at prices in the range of $27.86–$28.10 HKD (AASTOCKS, 1 June 2026). Broader Hong Kong tech sentiment has also remained subdued, with investors monitoring China's EV price war and elevated component costs across the sector; Xiaomi's stock closed down 4.57% at $28.40 HKD on 26 May 2026 as Jefferies issued its bearish downgrade, extending a sharp multi-month decline (thebull.com.au, 27 May 2026).

Xiaomi: Q1 results and buyback frame third-party views

As of 1 June 2026, third-party Xiaomi stock predictions show a widening divergence of views. Forecasts have been shaped by the company's Q1 2026 EV operating loss of 3.1 billion yuan, higher memory chip costs, and uncertainty over the pace of smartphone margin recovery.

Jefferies (downgrade to Underperform)

Jefferies analyst Edison Lee cut the 12-month target to $25.49 HKD from $26.98 HKD and moved the rating from Hold to Underperform, implying approximately 14% downside from the stock's close of $29.76 HKD at the time of publication. The downgrade cited Q1 2026 EBIT falling well below expectations, Xiaomi's 8% smartphone gross margin target becoming harder to achieve amid memory price inflation of roughly 100% year-on-year, and continued EV losses weighing on near-term profitability (Yahoo Finance, 27 May 2026).

Zephirin (Sell, revised lower)

Zephirin trimmed its 12-month target to $25 HKD from $27 HKD while maintaining a Sell rating, making it the most bearish publicly tracked estimate in this period. The revision reflected weaker EV margin assumptions and elevated valuation risk amid China's ongoing EV price war (MarketScreener, 1 May 2026).

Goldman Sachs (Buy, reduced target)

Goldman Sachs lowered its 12-month target to $40 HKD from $41 HKD, based on a sum-of-the-parts valuation, while retaining a Buy rating; the updated target implied approximately 34% upside from prevailing levels at the time of publication. Goldman Sachs cited Q1 EV division losses as the reason for the cut, while maintaining a constructive longer-term view on Xiaomi's EV delivery ramp towards management's stated 550,000-unit target for 2026 (Investing.com, 27 May 2026).

The Globe and Mail (consensus overview)

The Globe and Mail reported a Strong Buy analyst consensus rating for Xiaomi, with a consensus price target of $42.16 HKD, representing implied upside of approximately 41.66% from prevailing market levels at the time of publication. The consensus aggregates multiple 12-month broker estimates and points to a broadly constructive long-term view, despite the near-term wave of target cuts following Q1 results (The Globe and Mail, 28 May 2026).

Yahoo Finance / FactSet (consensus snapshot)

The Yahoo Finance analyst consensus, drawing on FactSet-compiled estimates, placed the average 12-month price target at $41.77 HKD, within a range of approximately $25.07–$41.77 HKD, alongside a broadly constructive aggregate rating across covering analysts. The gap between bearish outliers and the consensus average reflects ongoing disagreement over how quickly Xiaomi can narrow its EV losses while sustaining smartphone segment profitability under persistent component cost inflation (Yahoo Finance, 1 June 2026).

Predictions and third-party forecasts are inherently uncertain, as they cannot fully account for unexpected market developments. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.

Xiaomi (1810) earnings: latest results and upcoming date

Xiaomi reported its Q1 2026 results on 27 May 2026, with total group revenue reaching 99.1 billion yuan and an overall gross margin of 22%; however, the headline figures were tempered by performance in the EV and AI innovation segment, which posted an operating loss of 3.1 billion yuan, equivalent to approximately $5,600 lost per vehicle delivered during the quarter and marking a reversal from the full-year profitability the division achieved in 2025 (electrive.com, 27 May 2026). Smartphone margins also came under pressure, with memory chip cost inflation of approximately 100% year-on-year contributing to Q1 EBIT that fell well below market expectations.

Management reiterated its full-year 2026 EV delivery target of 550,000 units, raised from 410,000 deliveries achieved in 2025 (Bloomberg, 3 January 2026), and announced a record $20 billion HKD share buyback programme scheduled to commence on 2 June 2026, replacing a prior programme under which approximately $14.6 billion HKD in shares had been repurchased (ad-hoc-news, 30 May 2026). Xiaomi's next scheduled earnings release is set for 26 August 2026, according to the company's financial calendar (Investing.com, 26 August 2026).

1810 stock price: technical overview

The 1810 stock price as of 4:28pm UTC on 1 June 2026, below its key moving-average stack. The 20-, 50-, 100- and 200-day simple moving averages (SMAs) are aligned at approximately $30, $31, $34 and $41 HKD respectively, with the price beneath all four levels, according to data compiled by TradingView. The Hull moving average (9), at $27.97 HKD, runs close to the last price, reflecting the recent sharp decline.

Momentum indicators point to broad weakness. The 14-day relative strength index (RSI) registers 37.70, a lower-neutral reading that has not yet reached conventionally oversold levels, according to TradingView oscillator data. The average directional index (ADX) (14), at 19.48, does not confirm a strongly established trend in either direction.

The classic pivot point at $29.47 HKD marks the first overhead reference. A daily close back above that level would bring R1 near $31.45 HKD into view, with R2 around $34.85 HKD as the next area of note. On the downside, S1 at $26.07 HKD represents the nearest support reference below current levels, while the S2 area near $24.09 HKD is the next meaningful zone should S1 give way, according to TradingView pivot data (TradingView, 1 June 2026).

This technical analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.

Xiaomi (1810): Capital.com analyst view

Xiaomi’s 2026 price trajectory reflects the tension between its long-term growth ambitions and near-term execution challenges. The EV division’s return to a quarterly operating loss in Q1 2026, alongside rising memory chip costs that compressed smartphone margins, has weighed on the stock, which has fallen from its mid-May levels above $31 HKD. At the same time, management’s record $20bn HKD buyback programme, commencing 2 June 2026, may indicate confidence in the company’s underlying valuation. However, buybacks do not guarantee price support and can be reduced, delayed or discontinued.

Xiaomi’s expanding AIoT ecosystem and its 550,000-unit EV delivery target for 2026 remain potential medium-term catalysts. However, the pace of EV margin improvement remains uncertain amid China’s intensifying price war. Broker views diverge sharply, ranging from Jefferies’ Underperform rating with a $25.49 HKD target to Goldman Sachs’ Buy-rated $40 HKD target, showing that the risk-reward profile remains unsettled.

Summary – Xiaomi 2026

Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.