IAG share price: flat capacity, higher fuel costs

IAG reported a 16% fall in second-quarter profit on 31 July 2026 and cut its 2026 capacity outlook to flat, citing higher fuel costs and softer travel demand. Explore third-party IAG price targets and technical analysis. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.

By Dan Mitchell58 minutes ago

International Airlines Group (IAG) website displayed on a smartphone — Photo: Shutterstock

International Consolidated Airlines Group SA (IAG) last traded at £4.40 on 10 August 2026 at 1:37pm UTC, moving within an intraday range of £4.39–£4.46. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.

The move follows IAG's second-quarter results, published on 31 July 2026, in which the group reported a 16% drop in quarterly profit and trimmed its 2026 capacity outlook to flat, citing higher fuel costs and softer travel demand linked to the Middle East conflict (Reuters, 31 July 2026).

Fuel costs have remained another factor for the airline sector: Brent crude rose towards $84 a barrel on 10 August 2026 amid continued uncertainty over the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz (Al Jazeera, 10 August 2026).

Meanwhile, the FTSE 100 traded broadly flat to slightly lower during the same session as investors weighed Middle East developments and mixed signals from the US and Iran (Trading Economics, 10 August 2026).

Third-party IAG outlook: lower Q2 profit, flat 2026 capacity

As of 10 August 2026, third-party IAG share price predictions reflect a range of views.

Simply Wall St (analyst low target)

Simply Wall St reports an analyst low target for IAG of £4.17 over one year, updated from £3.86. The model attributes the revision to refreshed revenue, margin, discount-rate and valuation-multiple assumptions (Simply Wall St, 5 August 2026).

MarketBeat (five-analyst consensus)

MarketBeat reports an average 12-month IAG target of £5.03 from five analysts, with estimates ranging from £3.55 to £6.45 and a Moderate Buy consensus rating. The aggregation uses each analyst's latest rating and target published during the preceding 12 months (MarketBeat, 10 August 2026).

Investing.com (16-analyst consensus)

Investing.com places the average 12-month IAG target at £5.41, with a £4.01–£6.45 range across 16 analysts and an overall Buy consensus. The dataset reflects a poll of estimates submitted during the preceding three months (Investing.com, 7 August 2026).

TradingView (one-year consensus)

TradingView shows a one-year analyst target of £5.28 for IAG, based on 24 forecasts, with a £3.85–£6.45 range. Its rating distribution is based on 25 analysts' recommendations issued over the preceding three months (TradingView, 31 July 2026).

Overall, the cited targets span roughly £3.55–£6.45, with published averages ranging from £5.03 to £5.41. The underlying assumptions differ by source but include earnings, margins, fuel costs, capacity and valuation inputs.

Predictions and third-party forecasts are inherently uncertain, as they cannot fully account for unexpected market developments. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.

IAG earnings: second-quarter results

International Consolidated Airlines Group reported its second-quarter 2026 results on 31 July 2026, posting revenue of €8.9 billion, broadly flat year on year, and an operating profit before exceptional items of €1.406 billion, down from €1.68 billion a year earlier (Reuters, 31 July 2026). The group's operating margin narrowed to 15.8% from 19% in the prior-year quarter. Fuel and emissions charges climbed nearly 23% to €2.22 billion, while passenger revenue growth of €318 million on a constant-currency basis did not fully offset a €489 million rise in fuel costs (Yahoo Finance, 31 July 2026).

For the first half of 2026, IAG reported operating profit of €1.757 billion, down €121 million year on year, while revenue increased 1%. The company described its 10.9% first-half operating margin as 'sector-leading' (MarketScreener, 31 July 2026). Free cash flow for the six months rose 39% to €2.905 billion, while net debt fell by €1.3 billion to €4.7 billion (Hargreaves Lansdown, 31 July 2026).

Following the results, IAG said it expected 2026 capacity to remain flat and lowered its full-year fuel cost guidance from around €9.0 billion to €8.3–€8.6 billion, citing disruption linked to the Middle East conflict earlier in the year (Reuters, 31 July 2026). The company also confirmed that it had completed €0.8 billion of its ongoing €1.5 billion share buyback programme as of the reporting date (Hargreaves Lansdown, 31 July 2026). IAG's next scheduled financial disclosure had not been confirmed as of 10 August 2026 (IAG, 31 July 2026).

IAG share price: technical overview

As of 1:37pm UTC on 10 August 2026, the IAG share price trades within its moving-average band rather than clearly above or below it. According to TradingView, the 20/50/100/200-day simple moving averages sit at roughly £4.41 / £4.49 / £4.16 / £4.12. The shares trade below the shorter-term 20 and 50-day averages but above the longer 100 and 200-day lines, leaving the indicators mixed rather than pointing clearly in one direction.

The 14-day relative strength index (RSI) reads near 47, close to the midpoint of its typical range. The average directional index (ADX), which measures trend strength rather than direction, sits around 20, a level generally associated with a less established trend.

The classic daily pivot point stands near £4.45, just above the latest price, with the R1 marker near £4.76 representing the next listed pivot level above it, according to TradingView's data. The Hull moving average (9) also sits at approximately £4.45, placing two technical reference points in a similar area.

Below the latest price, the 200-day simple moving average sits near £4.12, followed by the S1 pivot near £4.01. These levels provide technical reference points rather than indications of where the price will move next (TradingView, 10 August 2026).

This is technical analysis for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.

IAG share price history (2024–2026)

IAG’s share price closed at £1.6690 on 12 August 2024, near their two-year low of £1.6475 recorded the following day, before rising through the following year. The stock ended 2024 at £3.0385, more than doubling from its August low, and closed 2025 at £4.1555.

The share price continued to fluctuate in 2026. It fell to a February low near £4.1785 before reaching a two-year high of £4.9410 on 25 June 2026. The shares then declined during July as jet fuel costs rose amid the Middle East conflict. By 31 July 2026, the stock had fallen to £4.3295, the same day IAG published its second-quarter results and reduced its 2026 capacity outlook to flat.

IAG closed at £4.3915 on 10 August 2026, up roughly 5.7% year to date and around 17.6% year on year.

Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Share prices are indicative and may differ from live market prices.

IAG (International Consolidated Airlines Group): Capital.com analyst view

IAG's price action through 2026 reflects several competing factors, including travel demand, fuel prices and the group's financial position. The stock reached a two-year high near £4.94 on 25 June 2026 during a period of robust North Atlantic and European leisure bookings and reduced net debt. Higher jet fuel costs later became more prominent, while Middle East-related disruption contributed to IAG reducing its 2026 capacity outlook to flat in its end-July results.

These factors can affect the business in different ways. Stronger travel demand can support revenue, while softer consumer spending can weigh on passenger bookings. Higher fuel prices can increase operating costs and put pressure on margins, although the extent of any effect depends on factors including fuel hedging, ticket pricing and capacity.

The group's ongoing share buyback programme provides another consideration. Buybacks return capital to shareholders but also use cash that could otherwise remain within the business. Analyst price targets currently span roughly £3.55–£6.45, reflecting a broad range of views and underlying assumptions rather than a single outlook for the shares.

CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.

Capital.com’s client sentiment for IAG CFDs

As of 10 August 2026, Capital.com client positioning in IAG CFDs shows 96.7% of open positions long and 3.3% short, a difference of 93.4 percentage points. The figures describe current positioning among Capital.com clients rather than a forecast of future price direction, and the split can change over time.

Summary – IAG 2026

IAG traded near £4.3915 at 1:37pm UTC on 10 August 2026, up from a two-year low of £1.6475 in August 2024 but below its June 2026 two-year high of £4.941.
According to TradingView, the share price trades within its moving-average band, while RSI(14) near 47 and ADX around 20 provide no clear directional signal when viewed together.
Relevant business and market factors include jet fuel costs, Middle East-linked disruption, European travel demand, capacity guidance and ongoing share buybacks.
Recent developments include IAG's second-quarter results, its decision to set 2026 capacity guidance at flat, and third-party analyst price targets spanning roughly £3.55–£6.45.

Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.

FAQ

Who owns the most IAG shares?

The article does not cover International Consolidated Airlines Group’s current shareholder structure or identify its largest shareholder. Ownership can also change as institutional and other investors adjust their holdings. For the latest information, readers should refer to IAG’s regulatory filings, annual reports or other official shareholder disclosures rather than using share-price forecasts or analyst ratings as a proxy for ownership.

What is the five-year IAG share price forecast?

The forecasts cited in this article cover mainly 12-month or one-year periods rather than five years. Published analyst targets range from roughly £3.55 to £6.45, depending on the source and underlying assumptions. A five-year forecast would involve greater uncertainty because factors such as travel demand, fuel prices, capacity, margins and broader economic conditions can change materially over time. Longer-term projections should therefore be treated with particular caution.

Is IAG a good stock to buy?

Whether IAG shares are suitable depends on an individual’s objectives, circumstances and approach to risk, so the article does not classify the stock as a good or bad buy. Recent factors include travel demand, fuel costs, capacity guidance, margins and the company’s financial position. Third-party analysts also publish a broad range of price targets, showing that expectations differ. These estimates are forecasts rather than guarantees of future performance.

Could IAG shares go up or down?

Yes. IAG’s share price can move in either direction as market conditions and company-specific factors change. The article highlights variables including passenger demand, fuel prices, Middle East-related disruption, capacity guidance and financial performance. Technical indicators also provide mixed readings rather than a clear directional signal. Historical price movements and analyst targets can provide context, but they cannot determine where IAG shares will trade in the future.

Should I invest in IAG shares?

This article does not recommend investing in IAG shares or taking any particular market position. Investors may consider factors such as the company’s earnings, debt, cash flow, travel demand, fuel costs and capacity plans alongside their own objectives and risk tolerance. Analyst targets and technical indicators can form part of broader research, but neither provides certainty about future returns. Past share-price performance is also not a reliable indicator of future results.

Can I trade IAG CFDs on Capital.com?

Yes, you can trade IAG CFDs on Capital.com. Trading share CFDs lets you speculate on price movements without owning the underlying asset and to take long or short positions. However, contracts for difference (CFDs) are traded on margin, and leverage amplifies both profits and losses. You should ensure you understand how CFD trading works, assess your risk tolerance, and recognise that losses can occur quickly.