HENSOLDT stock forecast: Free cash flow upgrade

HENSOLDT is a German defence electronics company. In June 2026, it raised 2026 free cash flow guidance after Q1 order intake more than doubled. Explore third-party HAG price targets and technical analysis. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.

By Dan Mitchell48 minutes ago

Photo: Shutterstock

HENSOLDT AG (HAG) is trading at €84.79 in early European trading on 1 June 2026, within an intraday range of €84.20–€90.71 as of 11:36am UTC. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.

Price action comes amid a cluster of company-specific catalysts. HENSOLDT raised its adjusted free cash flow guidance for the 2026 financial year from approximately 40% to approximately 50% of adjusted EBITDA in a release dated 1 June 2026, while confirming its book-to-bill, revenue, and adjusted EBITDA margin targets (HENSOLDT, 1 June 2026). Earlier, the company's Q1 2026 results showed order intake more than doubled year-on-year to €1,483 million, with the order book reaching a record €9,801 million (Reuters, 6 May 2026). Broader sector context is more mixed, with the STOXX Europe Aerospace & Defence index down approximately 1.2% year-to-date versus a 4.8% gain in the wider STOXX 600, as analysts characterise 2026 as a consolidation phase following the sharp re-rating of European defence names in 2025 (CNBC, 30 May 2026).

HENSOLDT: free cash flow upgrade and third-party targets

As of 1 June 2026, third-party HENSOLDT stock predictions suggest analysts are weighing record order-book momentum against valuation concerns. Individual broker targets span roughly €85–€101, while consensus aggregates cluster near €89–€91.

MarketScreener (analyst consensus overview)

MarketScreener compiles coverage from 15 analysts on HENSOLDT, arriving at a mean 12-month price target of €91.17 and an Outperform consensus rating. The analysis notes that average targets have drifted modestly lower in recent months, with HENSOLDT's P/E ratio for FY2026 cited at 52.8x, suggesting the market is pricing in a favourable scenario ahead of near-term delivery milestones (MarketScreener, 21 May 2026).

Stockopedia (consensus mid-point)

Stockopedia places the analyst consensus price target for HENSOLDT at €89.90 against a last recorded share price of €88.42, with the data capturing active broker coverage. The narrow gap between target and spot points to a broadly neutral near-term balance, as investors assess HENSOLDT's confirmed full-year revenue guidance of approximately €2.75 billion and revised free cash flow target of approximately 50% of adjusted EBITDA (Stockopedia, 30 May 2026).

MarketBeat (consensus Buy rating)

MarketBeat reports a Buy consensus rating for HENSOLDT, based on three strong buy ratings, one buy rating and three hold ratings across tracked broker coverage. The Buy skew persists alongside a record order book of €9,801 million as of end-March 2026, while hold-rated analysts flag execution risk and balance sheet pressure following the €675 million acquisition of ESG (MarketBeat, 29 May 2026).

Investing.com (consensus range)

Investing.com aggregates projections from 15 analysts covering HENSOLDT, with a 12-month average price target of €91.30, a high estimate of €114 and a low estimate of €62. The wide range of estimates reflects diverging assumptions on how quickly European defence budgets convert into procurement contracts. The 1 June 2026 guidance upgrade to approximately 50% free cash flow of adjusted EBITDA may also act as a near-term revision trigger (Investing.com, 1 June 2026).

Deutsche Bank (Buy, upper end of range)

Deutsche Bank analyst Christophe Menard reiterates a Buy rating on HENSOLDT with a 12-month price target of €101, the highest in the tracked broker pool and unchanged across multiple quarterly reiterations. The bank's positive stance rests on HENSOLDT's position within Bundeswehr modernisation and air-defence programmes, with structural European rearmament spending cited as the central support for the premium target (The Globe and Mail, 17 April 2026).

Takeaway: across these sources, third-party price targets range from approximately €62 at the conservative end to €114 at the high end, with consensus aggregators including MarketScreener, Investing.com and Stockopedia converging near €89–€91. Positive-rated coverage tends to focus on HENSOLDT's record order intake and European defence budget expansion, while more cautious views centre on valuation, balance sheet leverage and near-term execution risk.

Predictions and third-party forecasts are inherently uncertain, as they cannot fully account for unexpected market developments. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.

HENSOLDT earnings: Latest results and upcoming dates

HENSOLDT reported its Q1 2026 results on 4 May 2026, covering the three months to 31 March 2026. Revenue rose 25% year-on-year to €496 million, from €395 million in Q1 2025, while order intake more than doubled to €1,483 million from €701 million (HENSOLDT, 6 May 2026). The group's order book reached a record €9,801 million at end-March 2026, with management confirming full-year 2026 revenue guidance of approximately €2.75 billion and an adjusted EBITDA margin target in line with prior communication (Reuters, 6 May 2026).

On 1 June 2026, HENSOLDT issued an updated guidance statement, raising its adjusted free cash flow target for the 2026 financial year from approximately 40% to approximately 50% of adjusted EBITDA, while confirming all other key elements of full-year guidance, including book-to-bill ratio and adjusted EBITDA margin (HENSOLDT, 1 June 2026). The company's next scheduled reporting event is its half-year 2026 results, confirmed for 31 July 2026, in line with its standard financial calendar (HENSOLDT Investor Relations, 1 June 2026).

HAG stock price: technical overview

The HAG stock price trades at €84.79 as of 11:36am UTC on 1 June 2026, sitting just below its 10-day simple moving average (SMA) near €86.77 but holding above the broader moving-average cluster. The 20-, 50-, 100- and 200-day SMAs converge tightly at roughly €81, €79, €80 and €84, respectively. The 20-over-50 SMA alignment remains intact, keeping the short-term trend constructive, while the Hull moving average (9) at €87.35 runs above the current price, indicating some near-term softness after the move back from the session high.

Momentum is neutral to firm. The 14-day relative strength index reads 54.63, sitting in the upper-neutral range, while the average directional index at 20.56 indicates a developing rather than established trend, per TradingView data. The stochastic %K at 81.14 suggests the near-term move is extended without being at an extreme.

On the upside, the classic R1 pivot at €96.93 represents the first reference above current price. A daily close through that level would put the R2 level near €105.45 in view. To the downside, the classic pivot point at €83.21 serves as initial support, followed by the 50- and 100-day SMA shelf in the €79–€80 area. A sustained move beneath that band would bring the S1 pivot near €74.69 into consideration (TradingView, 1 June 2026).

This is technical analysis for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.

HENSOLDT share price history (2024–2026)

HAG’s stock price was trading around €34–€37 through mid-2024, a relatively quiet period before the stock became a focal point of the European defence spending debate. The catalyst came in early 2025: HAG rallied from around €62 in late March 2025 to a two-year high of €117.82 on 6 October 2025, as NATO allies accelerated budget pledges and Germany committed to a historic €500bn infrastructure and defence fund. That peak coincided with a broad re-rating across European defence stocks.

A reversal followed. HAG pulled back through late October and November 2025, closing the year near €73.53 on 30 December 2025, as profit-taking and valuation concerns weighed on the sector after its strong run. The stock recovered into January 2026, touching €97.10 intraday on 19 January before fading again. Q1 2026 brought further softness, with HAG dipping as low as €66.42 on 30 March 2026 amid broader market volatility and tariff uncertainty.

A recovery gathered pace into May 2026, supported by Q1 2026 results showing order intake more than doubling to €1,483m and a record order book of €9,801m. HAG closed at €84.69 on 1 June 2026, approximately 15.2% up year to date from the 2 January 2026 close of €76.63, and approximately 26.8% below the October 2025 peak.

Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Share prices are indicative and may differ from live market prices.

HENSOLDT (HAG): Capital.com analyst view

HENSOLDT’s trajectory over the past two years reflects the marked re-rating of European defence electronics, with HAG moving from the low €30s in mid-2024 to an intraday high of €117.82 in October 2025 before retracing to around €84.79. The structural case rests on Germany’s 2026 defence budget of approximately €108bn, a record order book of €9,801m as of end-March 2026, and a free cash flow guidance upgrade announced on 1 June 2026. The March 2026 agreement to acquire Dutch optronics specialist Nedinsco further illustrates management’s intent to broaden the company’s integrated solutions offering. That said, HENSOLDT carries a debt-to-equity ratio of approximately 167% and a forward P/E in the low-to-mid 50s. If European defence budget commitments slow or face political revision, the valuation premium could compress quickly.

The bull case and bear case remain finely balanced at current prices. Sustained order conversion, margin improvement and continued NATO spending momentum could support a re-test of higher levels. Equally, execution risk on large programmes, balance sheet leverage and the stock trading roughly 28% below its October 2025 peak all point to ongoing uncertainty. HAG’s performance in the second half of 2026 will likely hinge on how effectively the company translates its record backlog into revenue.

CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.

Summary – HENSOLDT 2026

As of 11:36am UTC on 1 June 2026, HENSOLDT AG (HAG) was trading at €84.79, within an intraday range of €84.20–€90.71.
Key drivers include Germany’s approximately €108bn 2026 defence budget, HENSOLDT’s record order book of €9,801m, and a free cash flow guidance upgrade to approximately 50% of adjusted EBITDA announced on 1 June 2026.
Q1 2026 results showed revenue up 25% year on year to €496m and order intake more than doubling to €1,483m, with management confirming full-year revenue guidance of approximately €2.75bn.
Risks include a debt-to-equity ratio of approximately 167%, an elevated forward P/E, and execution uncertainty on large-programme delivery timelines.

Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.

FAQ

Who owns the most HENSOLDT stock?

HENSOLDT’s shareholder base includes institutional investors, strategic holders and free-float shareholders, with ownership levels subject to change over time. For the latest breakdown, readers should check HENSOLDT’s official investor relations materials and regulatory filings. Ownership structure can influence liquidity, voting power and market perception, but it should not be viewed in isolation when assessing the stock. Factors such as earnings, valuation, order intake, leverage and broader defence-sector sentiment may also affect price performance.

What is the 5 year HENSOLDT share price forecast?

Longer-term HAG stock forecasts vary because they depend on assumptions around defence spending, order conversion, margins, cash flow and valuation multiples. In the near term, analyst price targets cited in the article cluster around €89–€91, with a wider 12-month range of approximately €62–€114. Five-year forecasts are less reliable, as they can’t fully account for changes in government budgets, geopolitical conditions, execution risks or wider equity-market sentiment.

Is HENSOLDT a good stock to buy?

Whether HENSOLDT is a good stock to buy depends on an individual’s objectives, risk tolerance and view of the company’s fundamentals. The bull case centres on its record order book, European defence spending and upgraded free cash flow guidance. More cautious views point to valuation, leverage and execution risk on large programmes. This article does not make a recommendation. Traders and investors should conduct their own research and consider seeking independent professional advice.

Could HENSOLDT stock go up or down?

Yes. HENSOLDT stock could move in either direction. Upside risks may include stronger order conversion, improved margins, further defence budget commitments or positive analyst revisions. Downside risks may include valuation pressure, delays in converting orders into revenue, balance sheet concerns or changes in political support for defence spending. Broader market conditions may also affect the share price. Past performance and third-party forecasts shouldn’t be relied upon as reliable indicators of future returns.

Should I invest in HENSOLDT stock?

The decision to invest in HENSOLDT stock should be based on personal circumstances, financial goals and appetite for risk. HENSOLDT has reported strong order intake and a record order book, but it also faces valuation, leverage and execution risks. Share prices can rise and fall, and investors may lose money. This content is for information only and doesn’t constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold HENSOLDT shares.

Can I trade HENSOLDT CFDs on Capital.com?

Yes, you can trade HENSOLDT CFDs on Capital.com. Trading share CFDs lets you speculate on price movements without owning the underlying asset and to take long or short positions. However, contracts for difference (CFDs) are traded on margin, and leverage amplifies both profits and losses. You should ensure you understand how CFD trading works, assess your risk tolerance, and recognise that losses can occur quickly.