Nvidia stock forecast: Third-party price target

Nvidia (NVDA) is up approximately 13% year to date as of 1 July 2025, having risen from $138 at the start of the year to $156. The stock hit a low of $94 in April, marking a peak-to-trough decline of nearly 32% before rebounding strongly through mid-year. Nvidia shares have remained volatile in 2025, driven by shifting sentiment around AI chip demand and broader market jitters tied to US trade policy and tech regulation.

What’s next for the AI-focused semiconductor superstar? Read our Nvidia stock forecast outlook for 2025-2030 and beyond across a range of third-party commentators, with recent price action, analyst targets, and long-term projections.

What is Nvidia? 

Nvidia Corporation is a technology company primarily known for designing and manufacturing high-performance graphics processing units (GPUs). Founded in 1993 and headquartered in Santa Clara, California, Nvidia plays a significant role in the development of computer graphics, artificial intelligence (AI), and other advanced computing applications.

Nvidia has recently achieved several significant milestones:

• As of late June 2025, Nvidia has become the world’s most valuable publicly traded company, with a market capitalisation of approximately $3.85 trillion. This milestone was reached after a 15% share price rally in June alone.

• Nvidia’s stock now accounts for nearly 7% of the S&P 500 index, reflecting its growing importance to the broader US equity market.

• In April 2025, the company began producing its Blackwell AI chips at facilities in Arizona and Texas. These are operated by TSMC, Foxconn, and Wistron, marking a major shift toward domestic US production.

• According to JP Morgan, Nvidia is expected to ship 5.2 million Blackwell GPUs in 2025. The next-generation Rubin architecture is planned for 2026.

• The company took a $4.5 billion charge in Q1 FY2026 due to excess inventory and restrictions on sales of its H20 AI chips to China, following new US export controls.

• In response, Nvidia is developing a lower-cost version of the Blackwell chip for the Chinese market, expected to be priced between $6,500 and $8,000 per unit, compared to over $10,000 for the restricted H20 chip.

• Nvidia’s strategic shift toward domestic production and product diversification reflects its response to geopolitical risks and efforts to maintain global leadership in AI hardware.

Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. 

Nvidia stock forecast for 2025 and beyond

As of June 2025, the NVDA stock price is trading in the $155-$158 range after recovering from lows earlier in the year. The Nvidia stock forecast for 2025 remains broadly optimistic over the next 12 months, though analyst expectations vary.

According to MarketBeat, the average analyst price target is around $175.78, implying moderate upside from current levels. Forecasts range from as low as $100 to as high as $250, with the median clustered in the $160-$180 band.

Loop Capital recently raised its target from $175 to $250, citing a new ‘golden wave’ of generative AI demand that could see Nvidia’s market capitalisation reach $6 trillion. Dan Ives of Wedbush has echoed similar optimism, suggesting Nvidia and Microsoft could each surpass the $4 trillion mark within 18 months.

On the other hand, some caution has emerged. HSBC downgraded Nvidia from ‘buy’ to ‘hold’ in mid-June, citing concerns about pricing power and the pace of supply ramp-up. The bank lowered its target price to $120. 

Consensus remains bullish

Nvidia stock predictions remain largely bullish. Approximately 90% of Wall Street analysts rate Nvidia a ‘buy’ or ‘strong buy’, with only a few maintaining ‘hold’ ratings and very few outright bearish views.

Longer-term forecasts vary widely. Benzinga suggests the stock could trade between $82 and $130 in 2026, depending on macroeconomic conditions, but sees potential for Nvidia to reach $200 or more by 2030 if AI adoption accelerates as expected.

Forecasts are not guarantees, and both algorithmic and analyst projections can be wrong. Traders and investors should do their own research and consider their risk tolerance before making any decision.

Nvidia stock price predictions: analyst price target view 

Kicking off the NVDA stock forecast for June 2025, Brian Colello of Morningstar raised Nvidia’s fair value estimate to $140, up from $125. The revision followed stronger-than-expected growth in production and demand for the company’s Blackwell AI chips, despite ongoing US restrictions on exports to China.

Loop Capital revised its price target for Nvidia to $250, citing what it called a ‘golden wave’ of generative AI growth that could drive Nvidia’s market capitalisation toward $6 trillion.

In other NVDA stock forecast news, Barclays’ Tom O’Malley maintained his ‘Overweight’ rating on Nvidia, raising his 12-month target from $175 to $200, reflecting optimism about accelerating AI infrastructure investment. Similarly, Oppenheimer’s Rick Schafer reiterated an “Outperform” rating with a $175 target.

Bank of America securities analyst Vivek Arya reaffirmed a ‘Buy’ recommendation in late June, with an NVDA stock price target of $160. Although this represented a reduction from previous highs, Arya highlighted Nvidia’s structural leadership in AI and data centre hardware as a key reason for his long-term bullishness.

Most major analysts maintain a positive outlook on Nvidia, with the majority of recent revisions citing a favourable demand backdrop for AI chips, balanced against short-term risks related to trade policy and supply chain constraints.

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Nvidia stock/share price drivers

Nvidia’s stock price drivers comprise macroeconomic and industry-specific factors that influence how Nvidia's share price could move, from the rapid adoption of AI technologies to geopolitical tensions impacting supply chains. Here are a few of the main drivers.

Industry trends

The continued AI boom is a core driver for Nvidia, as its GPUs power a growing range of AI applications – from large language models to robotics and enterprise automation. The company is doubling down on long-term trends in generative AI, while reducing exposure to less sustainable markets like cryptocurrency mining.

Supply chain and wider issues

Access to rare earth materials, semiconductor manufacturing capacity, and labour shortages in chip engineering remain headwinds. These are exacerbated by global supply chain disruptions and increasing protectionism in strategic tech industries.

Expansion into new markets

Nvidia is targeting growth in autonomous driving, cloud gaming, healthcare, and aerospace. Technologies like Nvidia DRIVE (for vehicles) and GeForce NOW (for cloud gaming) are central to this strategy. Expansion into emerging markets, such as India and Brazil, also presents long-term growth opportunities.

Competition and regulation

Competitors like AMD, Intel, and hyperscalers such as Amazon and Google are advancing in AI chips and infrastructure. Meanwhile, global regulators continue to scrutinise Nvidia’s market position, especially after the failed ARM acquisition. Antitrust oversight and limits on M&A activity could constrain inorganic growth.

Geopolitical risks

US restrictions on AI chip exports to China – including the H20 GPU – have materially impacted Nvidia’s growth outlook in the region. The firm incurred a $5.5 billion write-down related to this in early 2025. While Nvidia has adapted with region-specific chips, deteriorating US-China relations present ongoing risks to its Asia strategy, particularly if further sanctions or retaliatory measures are introduced.

Nvidia price history

Nvidia’s price history has seen significant movements since its initial public offering (IPO) on 22 January 1999. The company went public at $12 per share and has since undergone multiple stock splits, significantly increasing the number of shares outstanding. In its early years, Nvidia's stock price remained relatively modest, reflecting its position as a niche player in the graphics processing unit (GPU) market. However, as the demand for GPUs expanded beyond gaming into areas like data centres and artificial intelligence (AI), Nvidia's stock began to appreciate significantly.

A pivotal moment occurred in 2023 when the surge in AI applications led to unprecedented demand for Nvidia's GPUs, propelling the company's stock price to new heights. By 7 January 2025, Nvidia's stock reached an all-time high closing price of $153.13. 

This growth was fuelled by the company's strategic focus on AI and data centre markets, as well as the introduction of advanced products like the Blackwell AI chip in March 2024. 

Despite facing challenges such as antitrust investigations and geopolitical tensions, Nvidia's stock has demonstrated resilience. However, global trade tariffs enacted under US president Trump contributed to a technology sector downturn, including semiconductor companies such as Nvidia in 2025. 

As of 22 April 2025, Nvidia shares traded at approximately $98.89 – with significant price volatility reflecting broader stock market uncertainty. However, the stock surged to $156 in July, driven by surging AI chip demand, major tech partnerships, a regained market cap lead, and easing US-China trade tensions.

Nvidia trading strategies to consider

Nvidia is a global leader in technology, driving advancements in artificial intelligence, gaming, and data centers. Its growth potential and industry dominance make it a popular choice for traders. However, trading Nvidia effectively requires a clear strategy that considers its unique market dynamics and volatility.

Below, we outline potential key trading strategies designed to help you navigate Nvidia’s share price movements and make informed decisions.

1. Position trading: a longer-term outlook

Position trading involves holding a stock over an extended period to attempt to capitalise on sustained price movements. For Nvidia, this means focusing on its long-term growth drivers, such as its leadership in AI-powered GPUs, its expanding footprint in data centres, and its role in powering autonomous vehicles.

Long-term traders pay attention to Nvidia’s earnings growth, innovation pipeline, and its ability to stay ahead in the highly competitive semiconductor space. Using tools like discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis or tracking valuation multiples can help assess its intrinsic value over time.

2. News trading: reacting to market events

Nvidia’s shares are often impacted by news that highlights shifts in technology demand, new product launches, and geopolitical factors affecting the semiconductor supply chain.

For example, announcements about Nvidia’s advancements in AI chips, partnerships with major tech companies, or supply chain updates often create trading opportunities. Monitoring earnings releases, analyst upgrades, and industry events like CES (Consumer Electronics Show) can provide actionable insights.

Stay prepared to react quickly by setting up real-time news alerts focused on Nvidia and its key industry players.

3. Trend trading: riding the momentum

Trend trading focuses on identifying and following sustained price movements. Nvidia often exhibits strong upward trends during periods of high demand for AI technologies or when it releases groundbreaking products.

In share trading, combining technical indicators like the relative strength index  or MACD with fundamental cues can provide a more robust view of potential trends. Combining these tools with fundamental drivers, such as strong earnings or increasing market share, can enhance the robustness of your trend-trading strategy.

4. Day trading: intraday opportunities

Nvidia’s high liquidity and sensitivity to news make it a potential option for day traders. Earnings days, major product announcements, or updates on AI demand can trigger significant intraday volatility, providing potential for gains, but naturally also presents an increased risk of losses.

Day traders should leverage real-time market data, advanced charting tools, and level 2 order books to refine their strategies. Keeping an eye on broader tech sector movements, particularly the US Tech 100, can also help gauge Nvidia’s price action during the trading session.

Discover more trading strategies on our trading strategies page.

Additional Nvidia trading insights

• Diversify your strategies: instead of relying on a single approach, consider a mix of strategies based on market conditions. For instance, position trading might work well in a bullish market, while trend trading can be effective in volatile conditions.

• Risk management is key: set clear stop-loss levels and position sizing rules to protect your capital. Even the most effective strategies can lead to losses without proper risk controls.

• Stay educated: regularly update your knowledge of market trends, economic indicators, and sector performance. Enrolling in share trading courses or following expert analysts can deepen your expertise.

Learn more about trading shares via CFDs in our shares trading guide.

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