The FTSE 100, up +0.81% at close of business tonight to 7,453.48, got some support today from a weakened sterling. FTSE 100 advertising player WPP rose more than +2.5% to 1374p while there was stronger sentiment from miners with BHP Billiton, Antofagasta and Rio Tinto all seeing +2% gains.
Late afternoon the pound was down more than -0.25% at 1.3354 while relations waned against the euro, down -0.5% to 1.1319. The higher euro put pressure on European stocks with the Dax and CAC 40 falling both by -0.16% each at around 3.45pm.
US stocks twitched slightly following the earlier New York City explosion but continued to power forward following Friday’s record number highs across the Dow and S&P. Some of the forward propulsion is being driven by a likely interest rate hike (see more below) on Wednesday and more optimism on the passage of the Trump tax bill.
Disney was up strongly (+1.7%) on speculation it could be taking Fox’s TV and film production assets. If so the move could make Disney a major video streaming player (a blow for Netflix), while diversifying its revenue stream.
- UK FTSE 100 7,453.48 +0.81%
- DAX 13,135.26 -0.13%
- CAC 40 5,394.16 -0.09%
- Dow 24,354.29 +0.10%
- S&P 500 2,655.63 +0.16%
- Nasdaq 6,854.98 +0.22%
- Nikkei 225 22,938.73 +0.56%
- Gold 1,249.20 +0.06%
- Oil WTI 57.57 +0.37%
City Brexit jobs loss cut -20% to 10,500 – EY estimate
New numbers from accountants EY suggests the City of London will lose more than 10,500 jobs on quitting the EU. The latest EY job tracker data says it’s not just about back-office roles, as previously forecast, but increasingly front-facing client jobs that will go following Brexit.
However EY's original estimate of a 12,500 job loss cull has been downgraded by 20%. “Contingency plans have developed significantly over the last year, putting firms in a stronger position to estimate how many UK jobs they need to move,” said Omar Ali, EY’s UK financial services leader.
“Firms are working hard to find viable solutions that will allow them to continue to serve their customers and satisfy regulators with the minimum disruption."
US rate guidance cuts volatility
The likely US rate rise on Wednesday is such a 'dead cert’ that nearly all volatility is now squeezed out says HSBC’s head of FX research, David Bloom. Federal Reserve meetings have become "boring” he adds.
"The December FOMC (The Federal Open Market Committee) is imminent and the market is almost unanimous in looking for a 25bp hike... Forward guidance is the culprit. Fed rhetoric has made it clear that a December rate hike is viewed as appropriate well in advance of any vote that may take place; in other words, the rate hike was predetermined some time ago.”
Forward guidance means forex can move earlier and more gradually with volatility compressed. A Wednesday rate hike opens the door wider for possible more rate climbs in 2018, many economists predict, helped by stronger jobs numbers last week: US unemployment remains at a record 4.1% low.