Eurozone trade surplus falls in October

The eurozone's seasonally adjusted trade surplus fell in October from the previous month as growth in exports was eclipsed by rising imports.

Eurostat, the official statistical office of the European Union reported that the eurozone's surplus in international trade in goods fell to €18.9bn in October, from €26.4bn in September, failing to match expectations of a €24.6bn surplus.

On a seasonally adjusted basis, the surplus fell to €19bn in October, from €25bn in the prior month and missing forecasts of €24.4bn.

Exports vs imports

In its flash estimate of the trade balance, Eurostat reported that exports of goods to the rest of the world in October were valued at €187.9bn - and increase of 8.8% compared with the same month a year ago.

Imports from the rest of the world were valued at €168.9bn - a rise of 10.1% compared with October 2016.

The chart shows that the three-month average trend in the EZ surplus is still rising, but we think it will dip soon, and continue to fall in the first part of 2018 - Pantheon Macroeconomics

Down from record high

Claus Vistesen, chief eurozone economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, said: "A sharp decline, but it has to be seen in the context of the headline surplus hitting a record high in September.

"The headline was stung by a sharp month-to-month decline in exports, and an increase in imports. We’re a bit surprised by this given that neither the advance French or German export data were horrible. The final data next month - which includes the revised numbers from all the eurozone countries - will tell the full story."

Market reaction

Eurozone investors were unperturbed by the numbers and the euro climbed 0.21% to $1.1803 versus the dollar. Sterling fell against the euro, down 0.34% at €1.1364.